So when will it be over?
Western WA: Early Saturday
Eastern WA: Saturday night
Why so long?
Western WA: Encouraging reductions at Olympic Peninsula monitors today and smaller improvements since yesterday in the Puget Sound lowlands. But strong winds off the Pacific are MIA so we have take what the lighter, shifty winds with a little rain (minions!) dish out. These minions are bringing disorganized, mixed results. Some smoke from Oregon fires are now being transported to western WA due to a wind shift, and even though a lot of that smoke is still aloft, it delays the already slow scrubbing process. Expecting Good to Moderate air in much of western WA by Saturday.
However Clark county and the Columbia River Gorge might continue to see Very Unhealthy air through tomorrow at least because of the proximity to fires, and their relief will be later on Saturday.
Eastern WA: The last 3 runs of the more pessimistic models have continued to show good ventilation across the Columbia Basin on Saturday, so there is good confidence this wont be a busted forecast. This will not immediately erode away all the smoke stuck in valleys, so it needs some time to do it's thing. By Sunday morning most of the air should be Good to Moderate, except very close to fires.
So how bad did it get?
Some of our readers asked to see a comparison of the # of successive days we were exposed to Very Unhealthy or Hazardous air. Dr Beth Friedman constructed the following plot to answer this question.
All of 2020's days were from the last week or so. Sadly this wasn't the worst run of bad air for our friends in Chelan and Okanogan counties.
Note: Monitors did not operate during all of the last 3 years are in the following 3 counties, and they are not included in the above plot. Their stretch of bad days was:
|
County |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
|
Kittitas |
3 |
No data |
5 |
|
Klickitat |
No data |
No data |
7 |
|
Thurston |
No data |
2 |
6 |
P.S. Don't throw open your windows to air out the house the moment air quality improves. With these minions around, it is best to wait a few hours to be sure there is a sustained improvement.
What? No love for Kittitas County in the graph?
ReplyDeleteBeth says "They didn't have 3 years of data--the neph and the BAM weren't operating correctly in 2018, so I felt it was a little misleading. Their 2020 is at 5 days in a row, 3 days in 2017"
DeleteThank you!
DeleteCould you give any guidance on northern Idaho and western Montana? Will they start to clear up after eastern Washington?
ReplyDeleteJay, yes, should be mostly good by Sunday there.
DeleteWhere is Thurston?
ReplyDeleteBeth says: "No data in 2017. 2 days 2018 and 6 days 2020"
DeleteThe Thurston Co air monitor type was switched in 2017, so the data aren't available on-line. I have the archived data from that monitor. Thurston Co had 4 days of unhealthy air in 2017. All 4 days were in August and from a wildfire smoke event. There were no very unhealthy or hazardous days in Thurston Co in 2017.
DeleteDespite your warning, I may throw open my windows as soon as the WAQA reading is below 150. Having sealed my windows for 5 days in this small apartment, it's been consistently 80+ degrees and very humid in here, and I've become worried about CO2 levels. When the PM2.5 levels aren't AS severe as they have been this week, I think I'll make that tradeoff. Is that foolish?
ReplyDeleteYour call, Steven. Perhaps open several times for a few minutes at a stretch?
DeleteDo you have an air purifier? We did this room by room: open the window, then put the purifier in and close the door. Depending on your air purifier it's about an hour or so at full strength. For a small apartment, you may consider opening windows for a short amount of time, then closing them, putting the purifier on at the max setting ang going grocery shopping meanwhile.
DeleteDisclaimer: I'm not an expert by any means, but we had to get some outside air in, I am very sensitive to even orange values, and I haven't had headache when staying inside.
Tasha - wondering what air purifier you have? I am pretty sensitive & have had a hard week. Researching them has made my headache worse this week & it is a big enough investment that I'd prefer to go with a tried & true option. Thanks!
DeleteAt what CO2 level do you recommend opening the windows? We were able to keep the PM2.5 concentrations very low inside of our house by keeping all of our windows shut since last Thursday and running the filters almost non-stop. But our CO2 crept up and is now at ~1,100 ppm. Overall AQI is still far better inside than outside (110 vs. 225). There is clearly a trade-off between minimizing PM2.5 and CO2. Potential solution might be to create a transition room, sealed off of the rest of the house, that we air periodically, then filter the PM2.5 down before we open it to mix the low CO2 air with the high one. Thoughts?
ReplyDeleteKeep in mind that the AQI is based on a 24-hour exposure so you could be OK if you do a little air exchange and then filter the "fresh air". You are at grey area with AQI 225 (Very Unhealthy) but if you are feeling drowsy and headache, then it may be worth opening up a window or two for a little while until you can get CO2 down to a comfortable level. Just don't do strenuous activity in the compromised air. A carbon dioxide level of 1000 ppm is considered "safe", so 1100 isn't too bad http://www.energy.wsu.edu/Portals/0/Documents/Measuring_CO2_Inside_Buildings-Jan2013.pdf
DeleteSo grateful for your clear explanations and easy, gentle tone. Thank you!!
ReplyDeleteThe have been fantastic as it has encouraged me to understand where we live better and the challenges/dynamics that come into play with events like this and just meteorology in general. Are we still hopeful for Saturday morning good air for Seattle area?
ReplyDeleteAnacortes got to 120 this afternoon and we opened a couple of windows (with the box fan filter doing what it could). By evening we had lovely white fog in the Guemes channel and AQI of 88 and areas along Strt of Juan de Fuca south of us at 45 - so we are enjoying cool fresh air and sleeping with the windiws open! Thank you for y0ur guidance!
DeleteWhen is it safe to throw open our windows (at what level)? We have no one in the sensitive group in our household. Many thanks!
ReplyDeleteWait for a few hours of Moderate air
DeleteThank you so much for these! It's my birthday tomorrow and I'm wishing for plenty of rain to wash out the smoke. Do you think it will be safe to resume outdoor exercise by Sunday?
ReplyDeleteCatherine, Sunday should be fine. And happy birthday for tomorrow!
DeleteNow I'm curious at what number people are waiting for to air out their houses! I think I'll wait for under 100, what's everyone else thinking?
ReplyDeleteMy husband informed me yesterday that as soon as our local monitor turns yellow (50-100), he's opening the windows. I told him we needed to wait a few hours to make sure it's a real and persistent improvement. He scowled at me.
DeleteHow does height affect smoke density, I work on the exterior of high rises over 20 stories. Is the "orange level" safe for me to spend a prolonged period of time outside?
ReplyDeleteHello, good question. Unless you are at 500' above ground, it is safe to say that you are exposed to similar air as is measured at the surface. There may or may not be a dramatic change in concentrations above that (in this episode, you would have gotten exposed to more smoke at higher levels; during the winter, woodsmoke is likely to be (mostly) below about 1500'; but for 20 storeys, there isnt enough of a difference). But do consider the duration of your work and the fact that you will likely be exerting yourself more.
DeleteThank you, Ranil, for these blog posts and your diligent responses to comments. You are truly providing an invaluable public service. You've helped me and my family in these dark days. Thank you!
ReplyDeleteThanks so much for these updates and all the info! I come to site daily! Appreciate all the education, even though I never wanted to learn about this! ;-)
ReplyDeleteI add my gratitude for the quality of information, guidance, and good humor. Thanks for everything. During what are now seasonal major smoke events, I depend on this blog more than any other source.
ReplyDeleteNot in your job description, but do you happen to know why the word "minion" is used to describe "lighter, shifty winds with a little rain"? The definition is hard to apply: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/minion.
The subservient underlings of the good strong winds that do the real work? OK may not be the most humorous analogy.
DeleteWhat, no love for Skamania County? We'd love to set up a sensor at our school, but could use some help!
ReplyDeleteWe havent had a monitor there for the full 3 years to make a fair comparison. A citizen scientist operates an unofficial sensor in Stevenson (see https://fire.airnow.gov/) and it is reading Unhealthy air right now.
Delete"We don't see an immediate return to terrible air next week." Do you see a return at all? I have been locked up in my shuttered house for going on two weeks in Bellingham, and I can't do this again/anymore. So I'm wondering if I should book plane tickets until October/November (seriously).
ReplyDeleteYou don't have anything to worry about in Bellingham. It's the Columbia Gorge region that could potentially see some smaller smoke events next week. There is a lot of moisture out there and your air is already getting better. I hope you are ready for real rain tonight! See current AQ forecast here: https://enviwadev.ecology.wa.gov/home/text/421
DeleteI echo the gratitude! Thank you for your consistent, clear and easy-to-understand info. It really helps to have a broader point of view than feeling lost in the haze
ReplyDeleteEvery day I wake up, the forecast seems to be pushed another day. :( Now my air apps are all telling me we'll have to wait for Saturday night for moderate/healthy air.
ReplyDeleteFires keep burning. I'm guessing that it's hard to know exactly how much is being tossed in the atmosphere too far in advance. It feels like they have to juggle 'it's supposed to rain in this Thursday which will decrease the fires so we can guesstimate that it will be lower.' then either the rain/winds from the storm doesn't materialize and then the forecasts change.
DeleteIf nothing was still on fire, they and the models may have an easier time.
The fires are still burning. I'm guessing forecasts look at 'we have this weather system with rain and wind over the fire area. The rain will cut down the fires some and the wind should help.' and boom a forecast. Later, when the wind/rain didn't have an impact, and because we are still on fire, models/humans have to change the forecast.
DeleteZac & Stefen, in addition to very unpredictable fire behavior (you dont know in advance how much of a handle firefighters will get on the fires; a little rain only helps a little, its higher humidities & low winds that keep them from spreading), models also struggle to put the smoke plumes at the correct altitude. This in turn determines which upper level wind dynamics come into play. So fire emissions are often based on persistence (that is, today's emissions are assumed to occur unchanged for the next few days), and the absence of new fires. And even if all that weren't a factor, you have the weather models that may change their predictions for various reasons.
DeleteDidn't mean to sounds ungrateful, you guys are doing good work! Its just frustrating in a general sense (especially for my pups who I keep promising more outside time!).
DeleteNo worries Zac. Pups should be able to enjoy some clean air on Saturday, plus sunshine on Sunday.
DeleteThank you Ranil for all your helpful posts!! And second the comments about the amusing and personal tone of your posts - well done!
ReplyDeleteThanks for update. Notice some counties such Douglas Co are missing from the info-graphic.
ReplyDeleteZach, there is no permanent monitoring conducted in Douglas Co. However https://fire.airnow.gov/ does show a citizen scientist operated sensor in Waterville.
DeleteYou can't tell me that air quality has been healthy in Island County. We've been stuck in our home for the last several days because it's been downright horrible. It's on the graph but no data?
ReplyDeleteJessica, this plot shows the # of consecutive days where air quality was Very Unhealthy or Hazardous. Island county air never got worse than "Unhealthy".
DeletePlease confirm I am interpreting the chart correctly. Chelan county had about 18 days of unhealthy or hazardous air in 2020, and every county has been getting worse from 2017 to 2018 to 2020. Thanks
ReplyDeleteRob, no the stacked barchart shows the total for 3 years. Each year's contribution to those 18 days is shown in different shades of blue. 2017 had 3 consecutive days, 2018: 10 days and 2020 had 5 days.
DeleteThank you Beth, Ranil and the rest of the dedicated air quality professionals from State, Local and Federal agencies that have worked so hard to provide us quality science during this smoke event.
ReplyDeleteWhat are you referring to when you say "minions" ?
ReplyDeleteAlso: this blog has been very helpful to get a general feel for what is going on.
The subservient underlings of the good strong winds that do the real work of clearing out smoke? OK may not be the most humorous analogy.
DeleteYou aren’t the only one that was a bit confused by the graph Rob.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the clarification Ranil!
I thought it was a nice graph. Took a few minutes to understand it, but the color coding was clearly labeled off to the right.
ReplyDeleteHow does that compare to chelan county in 2012? Wenatchee was pretty bad that year.
ReplyDeleteTim I have that plot, but cant post a picture here. Send me an email at ranil.dhammapala WHOISAT ecy.wa.gov I'll be happy to reply with it.
DeleteAre there explanations for why Clallam's air gets so bad in smoke season? Air pushing north/west out of the Strait?
ReplyDeleteEach smoke season is it's own beast, but I can answer how your air got so bad this time. Huge smokey fires in CA and OR combined with easterly winds pushed an incredible amount of smoke out over the Pacific Ocean. The winds switched to southerly and carried all that smoke up the coast and down the Strait to your door. There was so much smoke over the Pacific and also over land that it messed with the weather patterns: set up inversions, stabilized the air and prevented the smoke from moving out of the area as weather forecasts predicted. It sort of put our weather system on slow motion, so the dynamics are there to clear it out, it's just happening very, very slowly.
DeleteI only recently came across this blog and have found it very informative and helpful over the last week or so.
ReplyDeleteI agree that the graph is a little confusing. Is a stacked bar graph the best option here? I think it is easy to see how someone could interpret this differently with the xaxis label of "number of consecutive days". There were not actually >15 "consecutive days" in any individual year or in total. If the goal is to compare this year to previous years I think starting at the same baseline conveys the data more clearly.
That said, I want to reiterate that I appreciate your work. And I'm sure you didn't have time to sit around and think too much about xaxis labels with things changing quickly. But apparently I did :)
Maybe you're right about a side by side (un- stacked) barchart but that would make it impossible to squeeze in all the counties x 3 years worth of labels. I would probably group a few counties together and re-do it like that "some time". Appreciate the suggestion
DeleteWe live in Othello (Columbia Basin) and we have been watching the forecasts on NOAA and it shows Sat as Sunny with a high of 74° and NO mention of smoke in the forecast. When looking at the air quality alert & hazardous weather outlook...our hopes are dashed just like when you are the 51st when only the first 50 get a free tv. Honestly what should we expect for home and in the Pasco area. We are moving my S.I.L. to Pasco tomorrow. Thanks
ReplyDeleteRiikka, yes the Air Quality Alert for that area is due to expire at 10AM tomorrow but the smoke wont have ventilated out until Sunday. It is improving now but very slowly. I would prepare for Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or Unhealthy air by Saturday AM in that area.
DeleteMaybe we should put a no smoking sign on the state seal so this doesn't happen anymore ;)
ReplyDeleteRanil, I feel like you’ve been all of our coach during such dark days. Thank you for unparalleled service, insight, and comfort through this last week. So grateful.
ReplyDeleteWhat about consecutive days in 2019? I seem to remember King county had some bad days last summer.
ReplyDeleteNo county registered successive days of Unhealthy or worse air in 2019.
DeleteThanks so very much Ranil and all the other DOE professionals and volunteers who have made this my go-to site during this event. Your clear informative and kind answers have been comforting. Thanks again!
ReplyDeleteI have long loved this site and recommended it. However, something has recently changed and it no longer will show the map on my phone. It will eventually load the map on my desktop. But not nearly as valuable to me. I really do not see this as a change for the better. Cheers
ReplyDeleteThis is an older post you're commenting on. Here's what I wrote in today's blog post:
DeleteBTW the air quality monitoring data map at the top of this blog has been upgraded to show both the new EPA Fire/ Smoke map that incorporates corrected low-cost sensor data, and our 2-day PM2.5 forecast. Might take a moment to load. If you're using a mobile device, scroll to the bottom of this page and click "View web version" to see this.