No doubt everyone breathed easy yesterday when air quality in the whole state returned to Good. How long will it stay that way?
The map of monitors above shows Moderate or Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups air at several locations in Clark, Klickitat and southern Yakima counties. These are due to smoldering fires nearby. Even though fires are not puffing smoke like they were, low- buoyancy plumes are still draining some smoke into nearby cities.
These kind of relatively low grade and relatively localized impacts will continue on and off through late Tuesday. "Low grade" compared to last week, that is. A weak system tonight won't help a whole lot but a strong, wet front early Wednesday will show the smoke who's boss and knock back the fires. Impressive 24-hour total precipitation ending 5PM Wednesday, as per the average of all ensemble models at UW.
Two weaker storm systems are expected Thursday and Friday, bringing more good news to smoke- weary Washingtonians. However calmer, dryer conditions under high pressure are possible Sunday onward so lets not pop the champagne cork yet.
Does this mean we need to be on the lookout for potential flooding Wednesday? Talk about going from the fire to the frying pan...
ReplyDeleteKaren, no the weather service isnt worried about that in western WA right now because rivers are running low at the end of summer anyway. However for eastern WA, they say "..the precipitation will be an early season test for our new burn scars with steep terrain...".
DeleteAny idea how much rain Oregon will get in the storm systems this week? Really hoping the PWN gets enough to end fire season for 2020.
ReplyDeleteReed, today's models show the central & northern OR Cascades will receive 0.5"- 1" by the end of this week. Not sure thats season ending rain, but will help a long way.
DeleteThat's great, sounds like it will at least dampen fire growth in that area.
DeleteWill we see another smoke event like last week up here due to the fires still burning in OR & CA? Trying to decide whether to order more MERV 13 filters for my box fan...🤔
ReplyDeleteJamie, short answer: very unlikely. Fires are still burning but not as smoky as they were and a good dousing is en route this week. The all-enveloping event we just came out of requires many things to gang up on you in the right sequence and there is no indication that we're setting up for such a prolonged episode again. The more into fall you get, the less likely that those conditions can redevelop. It doesnt preclude smoke from afar reaching you, but sticking around in such harrowing concentrations for so long is unlikely.
DeleteAny chance (normal) people could still be experiencing breathing problems or difficulties from the current air quality in the island county?
ReplyDeleteNo. Air there is about as clean as will ever get. More wind and rain en route
DeleteHealth effects from bad air last week can continue after the air is clean. If you're having difficulty breathing, please consult with your doctor.
DeleteThanks yo each of you for your constant support during the worst of last weeks smoke event! You are so very appreciated!
ReplyDeleteI'm wondering if smoke from California wildfires is likely to blow up to Washington each year from now on, given the general prevailing winds during the months of fire season. Of course it's hard to know which way the wind will blow, but there are seasonal prevailing winds, and many reputable scientists predict that California will have significant wildfires every year for the next two decades until the forests are thinned by clear-cutting or burning. Toxic wildfire smoke can significantly lower human life expectancy. As a result, I wonder how many people and even large companies, will remain on the West Coast much longer. Were the last 4 years a fluke, or is this truly the new normal for Washington State? I was thinking of moving to Bellingham, but it seems even places far north and on the coast aren't safe.
ReplyDeleteHi Autumn, interestingly we're tracking some smoke from the CA coast later this week. The all-enveloping event earlier this month requires many things to gang up on you in the right sequence (see Andy Wineke's chronicle of the whole episode at https://wasmoke.blogspot.com/2020/09/smoky-siege-look-back-at-smoke-storm-of.html) but there is no indication that we're setting up for such a prolonged episode again this season.
DeleteAs for recent history being a predictor of the future: we're not sure. 4 of the last 6 wildfire seasons have featured lots of smoke statewide. Fires wont abruptly stop anytime soon, but there are a few "good" years with fewer fires. Plus all the meteorological factors have to come together for a big smoke event. Its not just the prevailing wind. In 2018 it was the Canadian smoke that did us in, so Bellingham wouldnt have been a good retreat.
In short, this is a long term problem and will likely have it's ebbs and flows. Hard to define what normal is/ will be in a dynamic situation.