7/31/2015 Weekend forecast and Wolverine fire

Briefly, the WRF weather model-predicted afternoon soundings show little change through
5 pm Sunday with possibly some scattered mid-level clouds Sunday
afternoon.

By Monday some cooling and increased winds--still an adiabatic sounding up
through 700 hPa (about 10,000 feet) with scattered to broken mid-level clouds.

By Tuesday evening the skies will again be clear and then slight warming
through next weekend.

Throughout the period there will be good vertical mixing to:

1. Mix any smoke lofted by the heat of the fire down to the ground, and
2. Dilute that same smoke through a deep layer and decrease the ground level
concentration from what an undiluted plume would produce.

Also throughout the period there will be moderate winds on most afternoons to
also help dilute the smoke.

Unfortunately, the wind, vigorous vertical mixing, and warm to hot temperatures
with low relative humidities are also favorable for fire growth leading to
increased smoke production. The balance is expected to produce smoky skies
with limited visibilities in areas near the fire. Methow and Chelan valley
ground level concentrations could reach the Unhealthy for Sensitive Persons at
times.

Fire crews are expected to begin doing some burning to keep the fire away from
Holden by early next week. That will likely produce a surge of smoke
but should limit the long term impact from this fire.

The good news is that the nearest precip stays up in central BC--good because I
don't want any chance of convection (lightning) until we can get a heavy dose
of moisture (precipitation) in here--where is a western Pacific typhoon or
eastern Pacific hurricane when you could use one?

Clint Bowman
Department of Ecology