Welcome back to the smoke blog for another season!
This post will cover:
- A fire and smoke outlook for the 2026 season
- A preview of the upcoming "Smoke-Ready Week" on June 1-5
A Very Warm Winter in the West
The winter of 2025-26 was exceptionally warm across the western United States. An already warm November to February was accelerated by an extended duration heat wave in March that broke monthly temperature records across large portions of the Great Basin, Central/Southern Rockies, and Southwest. As a result, by April 1, when snowpack is usually at its annual maximum, this year's numbers were near or below record values across almost every mountain range in the west.
Temperature rankings for the period of November 2025 to March 2026. All areas in dark red observed their warmest winter on record with data going back to 1940-41. Map by Brian Brettschneider.
Locally, Washington fared slightly better than other parts of the west. The Olympics and west slopes of the Cascades did not end up with record low snowpack by April 1. However, the more fire prone dry forests along the east slopes of the Cascades into northeastern WA had the worst snowpack numbers in the state relative to normal, including record low values at a handful of stations. Additionally, a warm and dry April led to rapid melting in places like the Olympic mountains which are now almost completely snow-free a full month ahead of normal.
Snow water equivalent data on April 1, 2026, for stations with at least 20 years of data. Every red dot on the map was a station experiencing record low values of snow water equivalent for the date. Orange dots are 2nd lowest values on record. Data via USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS).
However you slice it, snowpack in Washington this winter was very low, and in many parts of the west, lower than it's ever been in the historical record.
A Somewhat Dry and Warm Spring - With Exceptions
A low snowpack does not guarantee a bad fire year, especially if followed by a wet, cool spring and early summer to counteract some of the effects of the warm winter. So far this spring, however, it has been drier and warmer than normal across most of the PNW, especially in April and May.
Percent of normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest from March 22 to May 20, 2026. Data courtesy the Climate Impacts Research Consortium (CIRC) accessed via climatetoolbox.org.
With these conditions in place, the atmosphere has been 'demanding' more moisture than normal, drying out dead vegetation like sticks, branches, and logs to near record low values for this time of year, especially east of the Cascades. Right now, live vegetation is still growing and helping to protect against major wildfire growth. But heading into early summer that live vegetation will stop actively growing and gradually dry out, becoming available to burn instead of an inhibitor to fire. With the warm and dry spring plus lack of snow cover, both the growing and drying cycle is happening earlier than normal this year, which seems to be signaling an earlier start to fire season and potentially a more severe peak of season if we continue to be warmer than normal during the summer months.
Lastly, while most of the region saw a dry spring, portions of the Columbia Basin actually received near or slightly above normal precipitation which has boosted grass growth in lower elevation areas east of the Cascades. These taller, thicker grasses (up to 120% of normal according to WA DNR fuels experts) are now drying out with the late spring sun and quickly becoming available to burn. In fact, there have already been a handful of significant grass fires in the lower basin this month. Grass fires alone don't typically produce long-lasting smoke impacts but the excess grass crop could potentially accelerate fire spread to the edges of dry forests, transitioning grass fires to longer lasting, smoky forest fires during peak season.
Implications of the Developing El Nino
The stage appears to be set for a busy fire season, but the ultimate outcome of the season will depend mostly on weather events that occur during the summer months. For that, we look at seasonal forecasts.
One of the best tools we have for seasonal prediction is looking at what is currently happening with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In a nutshell, ENSO is a natural cycle that occurs every 2-7 years where water temperatures at the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean alternate between a cool phase (La Nina), a warm phase (El Nino), or neutral. These ocean temperature anomalies can affect the development and placement of tropical thunderstorms which then influence global weather patterns in somewhat predictable ways. Typically, the stronger the El Nino (or La Nina), the more pronounced the effect on global weather patterns.
An El Nino event is currently emerging across the tropical Pacific Ocean, with further strengthening anticipated through the summer months. According to NOAA, a 'moderate' El Nino event will likely be in place by the peak of fire season but there is about a 20% chance of a 'strong' event at that time. By the fall months, a 'strong' El Nino is likely and there is about a 40% chance of a 'very strong' event, the highest category. The last time we had a 'very strong' El Nino was in 2015-16. The worst fire season on record in Washington state was 2015, occurring as that very strong El Nino event developed.
Sea surface temperature anomalies on May 19, 2026. The developing El Nino along the equatorial Pacific Ocean is noticeable, especially near the west coast of South America, though anomalous ocean warmth persists on many places globally. Data via NOAA.
Forecast probabilities of El Nino strength by season. For July-August-September (JAS) 2026, there is a 70% chance of 'moderate' El Nino or greater, and an 18% chance of 'strong' El Nino. Data via NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
One of the primary reasons there is so much focus on El Nino here in the PNW is that it favors a certain atmospheric orientation towards high pressure ridging over the NE Pacific and Gulf of Alaska during the summer months, which tends to block or weaken storm systems coming from the west and redirects wind patterns to favor drier, northerly flow from the interior of British Columbia. Combined, that tends to bring warmer, drier, and windier weather to Washington -- all conditions that favor wildfire.
Another thing to watch is the monsoon in the Desert Southwest, which tends to strengthen slightly with El Nino. Extensions northward of the monsoon can sometimes bring periods of dry lightning and numerous wildfire ignitions to the PNW, as happened in August 2015 which very quickly accelerated fire season from a busy one to a record one.
Forecast probabilities of above or below normal temperatures for June-July-August 2026 from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Most of Washington and Oregon are strongly favored for above normal temperatures this summer.
Forecast probabilities of above or below normal precipitation for June-July-August 2026 from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Washington is favored to have below normal precipitation, especially western Washington. Also note the forecast for above normal precipitation in the four corners region, signaling potential for a more active southwest monsoon.
All that said, no two El Nino events are the same and there are numerous complicating factors this year. Firefighting capabilities have also improved since 2015, especially with initial attack. Still, it's hard to ignore the emerging factors that stack the odds in favor of some concerning fire weather this summer on top of receptive vegetation following the warm winter and dry spring.
Outlook for Significant Wildland Fire Potential, and a Quick Look at BC
Forecasters at the Northwest Coordination Center (NWCC) have issued their predictions for June, July, and August. June favors above normal potential for significant wildland fires in eastern Washington.
By July, that potential spreads to NW Washington.
And in August, the entire state is expecting above normal potential.
Notably, it's not just Washington. Just about the entire PNW is also covered by above normal wildland fire potential in July and August during the peak of fire season, so there could be smoke from other states to think about. Additionally, many of the same conditions extend into southeastern British Columbia, and a busy season is possible there too.
Canadian drought monitor as of May 5, 2026. Moderate to severe drought is noted in portions of eastern British Columbia, just north of the border with Washington. Data courtesy Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
Smoke Implications, including Western Washington
Even in a busy forest fire season, onshore flow and the clean air of the Pacific Ocean often protects highly-populated western Washington from significant smoke impacts at the ground. That certainly happened in 2025, when big fires were burning in central and eastern Washington but smoke impacts across most of western Washington remained limited because of that clean, onshore flow.
This year, however, there are some indications with the developing El Nino that wind patterns will be a bit more northerly or northeasterly than normal, which could bring intermittent periods of offshore flow, transporting smoke from any fires in BC, Idaho, and eastern Washington into all corners of the state, including western Washington -- at least more so than last year.
Being Smoke Ready
With any sort of seasonal outlook, there is a greater amount of information that we don't know than what we do know. There is always a chance that this season could end up closer to normal due to well-timed periods of wetter and cooler weather, lack of dry lightning, or other factors. Still, preparation is always key -- especially with high-end potential like this year. Once smoke arrives, will you know what to do? Will the supplies you need to protect yourself still be available at the store?
Now is a great time to get ready for smoke, and we have an entire week dedicated to preparation from June 1-5. Come back to the blog during smoke ready week for a series of posts that will go over how you can protect your health during the 2026 fire and smoke season.
Lastly, rest assured, we will be here every step of the way this season to keep you informed. Thank you for following along with us!
Helicopter work on the Moon Complex Fire in September 2025. Photo credit: Russel Simmons, Coos Forest Protective Association - Gold Beach AUF.
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