After skirting serious smoke impacts all summer, western Washington’s luck has finally run out.
Northwest winds are blowing smoke from fires in British Columbia into Whatcom, Skagit and Island counties, while winds along the coast will begin dragging smoke from Californian fires into communities around Grays Harbor and along the Olympic Peninsula.
 |
| Friday (8/13/2021) Smoke Model Forecast Image |
Some of that smoke will make its way inland over the Puget Sound region and, just like we saw during the record-breaking June heat wave, high temperatures Friday may also lead to biogenic aerosol formation and enhanced ozone production, adding even more pollution to the mix.
So here’s the rundown: Expect air quality readings in the
Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range on Friday across much of
western Washington, with a few spots hitting Unhealthy. A plume from the Schneider Springs Fire northwest of Naches
may also pass over the central Puget Sound on Friday morning and bring much
higher smoke concentrations for a few hours.
 |
| GOES-17 Imagery (8/12/2021) |
The Northwest Clean Air Agency has issued an air quality
alert for Skagit, Island and Whatcom counties, the Olympic Region Clean Air
Agency has alerts for Clallam and Jefferson counties, and Puget Sound Clean Air
has alerts for King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap counties. San Juan County should expect Moderate-to-Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups air quality.
The good news is that this is likely to be a short-lived
exposure. A cold front arriving Sunday should blow all of this smoke out, and
air quality should begin improving Saturday even before the full front arrives.
Any early clues about the 7 day smoke outlook, what may happen after this weekend?
ReplyDeleteIf you toggle that slider on the fire and smoke map, you can see what we're seeing for the next five days. By Monday, W. Washington is back in the green, while E. Washington is good, except near the major fires.
DeleteToggle? Can not see a toggle on the smoke map of Aug 13...
DeleteChristian- after it loads (and that can be slow) try dragging the slider to the right.
DeleteI guess this is just part of summer in the PNW now? I'm 40, grew up in the North Sound & wildfire smoke being visible was a true rarity until about 5 years ago.
ReplyDeleteOur particulate pollution monitoring records only go back about 20 years, but the increase in major fires across the west is certainly a reason for concern. Here is some recent UW research on that subject hot off the press: https://www.washington.edu/news/2021/08/02/new-report-state-of-the-science-on-western-wildfires-forests-and-climate-change/
Deletelink doesn't work, can you post corrected link? thanks
DeleteThe link works for me. You could try going right to the paper: https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/toc/10.1002/(ISSN)1939-5582.climate-change-and-westernwildfires
DeleteI was able to access the link, thank you for sharing!
DeleteWill be down in Packwood, WA tomorrow (Friday) evening through Sunday, and air quality permitting, out for a very long day in the Goat Rocks Wilderness on Saturday. Doesn't seem to be monitors in that area, and it's not covered with any of the forecast areas either, just in between areas forecasted as "good" to the west and "USG" to the east. FWIW, we will primarily be just west of the PCT, so technically on the west side of the Cascades... Thoughts on what to expect for air quality around there?
ReplyDeleteYou're going to be close to the Schneider Springs Fire, which is producing a lot of smoke. Air quality should be improving on Saturday, but any little shift in the wind could bring a bunch of bad stuff your way.
DeleteOur default guidance is always: When you're traveling close to a major fire, you should plan for smoke.
DeleteIt’s quite smokeybin the pack wood area.
DeleteVisiting Packwood this week and the smoke is very bad, not healthy to be outside. Would not recommend unless wIndus change.
DeleteWe just got to Entiat and we think we are now in the red zone. Can we expect any relief here this weekend?
ReplyDeleteWe are so grateful for your work!! Thank you!!
Current smoke forecast shows that area clearing out on Saturday when winds from the west pickup. However, beware of fire growth on the Nason fire, which could directly affect Entiat if it grows much over the next couple days. It isn't big right now, but something to watch out for.
DeleteI’m planning on camping at salmon la sac this weekend - anyone know if this is in the danger zone?
ReplyDeleteHi Tom, I would expect at least Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups through at least Saturday, maybe even more smoke (Unhealthy), maybe through Sunday. Since it's not too far (when it comes to smoke plumes) from the Oakanogan fires, and is on the east side of the Cascades, it's just a pretty risk area right now.
DeleteYou are all awesome. Thank you for running this blog.
ReplyDeleteI hiked today near the Cascades. There wasn't much haze when I hit the trail and the air in the forest seemed fragrant and clean wait did along the alpine lake I swam in. I was shocked at the haze when I emerged from the trail.Do forests help filter the smoke?
ReplyDeleteNo, forests don't filter smoke. In general you need wind or rain to remove smoke. It can be difficult to see haze when in a forested area because you need a distant object to look at. So, if you were surrounded by trees, the haze may not have been discernible.
DeleteAny indication of what hours of Friday morning we may get the plume of smoke from the Schneider Springs Fire over Puget Sound? Is it likely to happen in the early hours or perhaps this is too hard to forecast?
ReplyDeleteGabriel, the smoke has been overhead since yesterday and will mix down to the surface through later today. Plan for USG air with short periods of Unhealthy conditions
DeleteThank you for your diligence in updating this site. After having dealt with wildfire smoke the past three out of four summers, I understand that it’s very hard to predict smoke behavior sometimes, so I appreciate the work you all are doing to keep us informed. Crossing my fingers that this will be a shorter lived smoke event that August 2018 or September 2020
ReplyDeleteLooks like the coast around Kalaloch is hazy Friday but projected to clear up Friday evening. Is that improvement in air quality for Friday night expected to hold?
ReplyDeleteHazy should be a worst case scenario. It depends on how much smoke from CA travels up the coast. Right now it looks like there will be sufficient dilution with clean marine air it shouldn't be too bad. Air quality is good right now along the coast just south of Kalaloch and down to southern CA. The monitor at Taholah is trending down as well. It should clear up in a few hours and looks to stay that way, barring any new fire starts.
DeleteI’m in north cascades national park all day Friday and leaving Saturday. Should I hold off hiking tomorrow and do it Saturday morning before leaving instead? What time is the smoke expected to improve on Saturday?
ReplyDeleteHi Lily, yes, later is better. Gradual improvements expected starting Saturday morning
DeleteHow do you think Washington pass will be Saturday afternoon?
ReplyDeleteClearing would have commenced on Saturday, but you should prepare for Moderate air.
DeleteI'm trying to plan a astrophotography trip up around Easton this weekend, how is the smoke up there?
ReplyDeletePlease see the map above. The nearest monitor in Cle Elum and another sensor closer to Easton have been recording Unhealthy air since yesterday. Improvement is expected from Saturday, and by late Sunday, things should be mostly Good. But there will still be smoke around and aloft in the interim, obscuring your view of the sky.
DeleteI've lived in yakima 40 years and I've never seen yakima this smokey. It's horrible my daughter has a heart condition and it's been impossible to let her leave the house. I sure hope it gets better in the next week or two so she can start school on time and so we can all breathe some fresh air again. Fresh air sounds wonderful. I tried taking her out of town but Idaho and Oregon are no different we can't escape the smoke.
ReplyDeleteWhen will Yakima wa be smoke free or even less smokey than now? Can we expect it to get worse before it gets better?
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately Yakima is just too close to the Schneider Springs fire and winds are going to keep smoke draining into the valley for a while to come. Smoke should reduce by Sunday but it isnt expected to go away. Wish I had better news for you.
DeleteMy kids are hiking the PCT. Just got to Stevenson, where the smoke is really bad, and are trying to figure out next steps. This is the third time in a month they've had to get off trail to wait out smoke. Any idea what the air situation will look like along the trail over the next week or few days? They'll be close to the Schneider Springs fire in ~7 days. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteLisa, smoke is expected to start clearing slowly by Saturday evening into Monday, but the strong winds that will be blowing away this smoke are also causing fresh fire weather concerns. Barring new fires, Mon- Wed should be mostly Good.
DeleteThank you so much, Ranil!
DeleteI was looking to climb Mt. Goode this weekend. Completing the approach on 8/14 and climbing 8/15. I was curious what kind of smoke we should be seeing.
ReplyDeleteThanks for all your work!
- Raymond
Hi Raymond, the clearing will start by late Saturday and proceed through Sunday. Since we're talking of smoke from BC and Okanogan Co fires, I'd prepare for USG conditions improving to Moderate later.
DeleteAny indication of the air quality near Lena Lake in Olympic National Forest? Was planning a hike there today but can’t really get a judge of the quality based on the smoke maps. I’m in Shelton now and all is clear.
ReplyDeleteRachele, the map at the top of this blog shows Unhealthy/ USG air at the nearest monitors around Lena Lake. Shelton may be OK now but this area isnt expected to clear until tomorrow.
DeleteI'm at Port Susan in Tulalip, WA. Im planning a family get together with my kids and grand kids on Saturday. What is in my near future as it pertains to smoke? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteWe expect the smoke to start clearing out of the Puget Sound tomorrow morning. Conditions may still be Moderate throughout the day, but should be much better than today.
Delete