Smoke forecast Thursday 9/18- Sunday 9/21

It gets better...

In spite of Wednesday's winds not being as strong as expected, air quality in several areas did improve a little. Many sites in eastern Washington showed Moderate air quality this morning, with Clarkston showing Unhealthy air. Expect west-northwest winds to pick up today and air quality to return to mostly Good statewide.

... but won't stay that way for everyone

A strong ridge is expected Friday through Sunday, bringing nice weather and east winds. The previous forecast for southwest winds is no longer valid. As such it is unlikely that Oregonian wildfire smoke will make it to Washington, but Idahoan wildfire smoke is likely to impact the Palouse, the Lewis- Clark valley and perhaps further into the Columbia Basin to varying extents between Friday and Sunday. Expect air quality to hover between Moderate and Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.

The 25-acre fire outside Leavenworth is nearing containment but could continue smoldering for a few more days. In addition, there could be small amounts of localized smoke from the various prescribed burns across the state.

Forecast will be updated as required.

Ranil Dhammapala, PhD.
Atmospheric Scientist
Washington State Department of Ecology
Tel: 360-407-6807   Fax: 360-407-7534
Email: ranil.dhammapala@ecy.wa.gov

Smoke forecast, Tuesday 16 September 2014

It wasn't us. It was them!

Well, mostly. Folks around Leavenworth, the Puget Sound lowlands, and southeast Washington have been breathing moderate amounts of smoke over the last day or two. There has been some prescribed burning approved recently and a wildfire outside of Leavenworth which may be contributing locally to the higher smoke values, but most of the smoke seems to be drifting in from Oregon and Idaho. 

East winds helped drag some smoke from Idaho across the Palouse and the Lewis- Clark Valley. In western Washington, south winds brought in some smoke from wildfires near Mount Hood in Oregon. In most cases, air quality degraded to "Moderate". 

Here is the satellite image over Washington, taken on Monday morning. Notice the Idahoan smoke coming down the Clearwater river valley. South winds picked up later in the day and brought in more smoke from Oregon. In addition there are areas of smoke in central and western Washington, partly caused by prescribed burns.

Forecast

The picture is likely to remain the same through this evening, after which winds turn a bit more westerly, and become southwesterly by Wednesday. Western Washington will see less Oregon smoke  starting Wednesday morning. But southwest winds mean smoke from Oregon is likely to impact cities in a line from The Dalles, OR through Spokane, at least through Thursday. 

The Palouse will see some relief from Idahoan plumes before Oregonian plumes show up. Air quality is likely to hover between Moderate and Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.

Stronger winds are expected on Thursday and this is likely to disperse smoke more. Things calm down as a ridge builds from Friday through the weekend bringing us nice weather statewide and also poor smoke dispersion. We are not likely to see a lot of smoke from neighboring states transported over Washington, but cities closer to the fires will be impacted. Some daytime clearing is expected.

In addition, smoke from various prescribed burns could bring some smoke to different parts of the state. 

Forecast will be updated as needed

Ranil Dhammapala, PhD.
Atmospheric Scientist
Washington State Department of Ecology
P.O Box 47600, Olympia, WA 98504-7600
Tel: 360-407-6807   Fax: 360-407-7534
Email: ranil.dhammapala@ecy.wa.gov

9/16/2014 Smoke in Leavenworth

The Tumwater fire outside of Leavenworth isn't very large but is close enough to Leavenworth to be sending smoke into town.  The 20 acre fire is reported to be 40 percent contained.

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Tumater-Mountain-fire-near-Leavenworth-is-40-percent-contained-275243201.html

Leavenworth fire throwing up lots of smoke

Posted by Nick Provenza

The Wenatchee World (MCT)

LEAVENWORTH — Fire crews and helicopters were trying to tame a human-caused wildfire burning in brush and timber near the mouth of Tumwater Canyon in Leavenworth Sunday morning.

No homes or businesses were threatened by the newly named Tumwater Fire, reported at 10:42 p.m. Saturday. About 10 to 15 acres had burned by 11 a.m. Sunday, burning up a steep and rocky southeastern slope and visible from the heart of Leavenworth’s downtown.

Two helicopters began dropping water in tandem about 9:30 a.m. Three 20-person ground crews are also working the fire, which apparently began near the base of the slope. Ground crews worked the blaze from a staging area behind the Heidleburger Drive-in at the west end of Leavenworth.

U.S. Forest Service spokeswoman Robin DeMario said the fire was under investigation but appeared to be human-caused.

The fire caused significant smoke and ash fall in the Upper Valley. State Department of Ecology air monitors listed Leavenworth’s air as being unhealthful for sensitive groups by midmorning.

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/today/2014/09/leavenworth-fire-throwing-up-lots-of-smoke/

8/28/2014 Fire and Smoke Issues no longer significant

Have we seen the last of the wildfire smoke issues in Washington for the summer of 2014?  It would seem that for now at least the existing wildfires are under control and virtually out.  There is still some minor interior burning here and there (as can be seen in the photo to the right of the Duncan fire from Aug. 27) and firefighters may continue to use controlled burns to strengthen containment lines so some people may see or smell a bit of smoke now and then but the monitors have stayed in the "green" or good air quality category for days.  So until or unless things change, posts to this blog will be infrequent.

Thank you for your interest!



Information about the status of closures and fire recovery efforts can be found at the links below:

• Okanogan/Wenatchee National Forest:  http://www.fs.usda.gov/okawen
• The Okanogan Conservation District: www.okanogancd.org/Carlton 
• Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER): http://centralwashingtonfirerecovery.info/

Smoke / Air Quality Forecast for Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Smoke Synopsis:

A bit cooler and breezy today in most locations.  Some gusty west to northwest winds 20-30 mph are possible late afternoon in and downstream of aligned canyons.  Some showers and thunderstorms are possible in the northern portion of central Washington. We appear to have made it through the warmer, dry period this last weekend without generating any significant new fires and the firefighters were ready for Tuesday’s winds, so I would say we’re “out of the woods” – referring to smoke, not Washington’s trees.  This is reflected in the green forecast presented below.

Air Quality Outlook:
Site	Wednesday August 20, 2014		Thursday August 21, 2014		Friday August 22, 2014		Comments
Colville	Good		Good		Good
Wellpinit	Good		Good		Good
Keller	Good		Good		Good
Omak	Good		Good		Good
Malott	Good		Good		Good
Brewster	Good		Good		Good
Winthrop	Good		Good		Good
Twisp	Good		Good		Good
Chelan	Good		Good		Good
Entiat	Good		Good		Good
Plain	Good		Good		Good
Leavenworth	Good		Good		Good
Wenatchee	Good		Good		Good
Ellensburg	Good		Good		Good
Yakima	Good		Good		Good
NOTE – in table above “USG” stands for “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups” For detailed information about the color coded air quality categories, please see:  Washington Air Quality Advisory for Smoke and Other Fine Particle Air Pollution En Español:  El Índice de la Calidad de Aire de Washington para Humo y Otra Contaminación del Aire causadas por Partículas Finas
Warning: These data have been obtained from automated instruments and have not been subjected to a quality assurance review to determine their accuracy. They are presented for public awareness and should not be considered final. Conditions such as power outages and equipment malfunctions can produce invalid data.
1 Since wildfires often occur in remote areas, air monitoring equipment may not be available. The following table provides a quick method to assess air quality in your area. For more detailed information you can go to the following site: http://www.deq.state.or.us/aq/burning/wildfires/visibility.htm
Using the 5-3-1 Visibility Index
Distance you can see*		Your are:						You have:
		·  An adult ·  A teenager ·  An older child		·  Age 65 and over ·  Pregnant ·  A young child		OR		·  Asthma ·  Respiratory illness ·  Lung or heart disease
5 miles		check visibility		minimize outdoor activity
3 miles		minimize outdoor activity		stay inside
1 miles		stay inside		stay inside
No matter how far you can see, if you feel like you are having health effects from smoke exposure, take extra care to stay inside or get to an area with better air quality.  You should also see your doctor or other health professional as needed.
* less reliable under high humidity conditions