Showing posts with label forecast. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forecast. Show all posts

Friday, August 14, 2020

Scorching weekend won't be smoke and smog free; plus a new tool expands smoke monitoring

As temperatures approach triple digits in western WA on Sunday and exceed that in eastern WA through Tuesday, we're also looking at some smoke impacts in places. And possibly some ozone in two known hotspots. 

Local fires

The Mosier fire in Wasco County, Oregon is currently sending light smoke into south central WA and causing some Moderate air. As surface winds turn offshore tomorrow, assuming the fire continues to puff, we could see some smoke drift along the gorge toward Portland/ Vancouver and cause air to degrade to Moderate. The current smoke forecast model is a bit pessimistic for Saturday. No reason to suspect that most of eastern WA will see Moderate air tomorrow. It should be mostly restricted to the gorge and the south central Cascades. Other fires in north central WA could cause occasional Moderate conditions elsewhere. 

Here's the most likely smoke forecast for the whole weekend.

More distant fires

Upper level flow turns south by Sunday and models are suggesting some smoke from norther California fires could be transported over western WA by then. Not expecting much of it to mix down to the lowlands, but those views of Mt Rainier might not be that clear, and sunsets might be a bit more resplendent. 

Siberian smoke hanging around the Gulf of Alaska is mostly expected to get shunted to our north. Not much of it is mixing down to the surface anyway. 

Ozone

Cascade foothills in eastern King and Pierce counties, and also the Tri Cities could see ozone levels (loosely called "smog") creeping up over the weekend. More info on ozone pollution here.

And finally, here's an exciting new data tool 

EPA has partnered with the US Forest service to make available data collected nationwide (mostly by citizen scientists) using PurpleAir sensors. These sensors are known as "low cost sensors" for a reason, and they are not able to match the data quality and accuracy of permanent sensors. So while they often help fill data voids, there are a lot of caveats with their use. 

EPA & USFS worked with states around the country to develop conversion factors to transform PurpleAir data to better match up against permanent monitors in near-real-time. Corrected data are now available alongside the rest of the fine particle pollution (PM2.5) data. PurpleAir monitors are shown as squares. Here's a snapshot of the short explanation on the page. 


Friday, September 21, 2012

9/21/12 Wildfire Smoke Forecast

Washington Air Quality Advisory (WAQA) Chart:

Ecology Air Quality Monitoring Network Map: https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/enviwa/Default.ltr.aspx
  -note, click on the dots and you can then click on View more information to find out the latest hourly values even if the dot is gray
              
Central Region, Ecology Air Quality Report
              
               Chelan County monitor locations:
Wenatchee- “Hazardous”
Leavenworth- “Very Unhealthy”
Chelan- “Unhealthy”

               Okanogan County monitor locations:
Omak - “Moderate”
Winthrop – “Unhealthy”
Twisp-  “Unhealthy”

               Kittitas County monitor location:
Ellensburg- “Very Unhealthy”

               Klickitat County monitor location:
Goldendale- “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups”

Eastern Region, Ecology Air Quality Report

Blue Mountain Area
Clarkston  -  “Unhealthy”
Dayton  -   “Moderate”
Walla Walla  -  “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups”

Palouse/Spokane Area
Pullman  - “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups”
Rosalia  - “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups”
LaCrosse  -  “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups”
Spokane  -  “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups”
Deer Park  -  monitor down
Northeast
Colville  -  “Good”
Wellpinit  -  “Moderate”
Columbia Basin
Kennewick  -  “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups”
Mesa  - “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups”
Moses Lake  - “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups”
Ritzville  - “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups”
USDA FOREST SERVICE Air Quality Report

           Chelan County monitor location:
Wenatchee (Confluence Park)- “Hazardous”
Cashmere- “Hazardous”
Entiat: “Hazardous”

           Grant County monitor location:
Quincy- “Unhealthy”


          
          Kittitas County monitor location:
Cle Elum- “Unhealthy”

Another very useful webpage for grab hourly and 24 hour data, Puget Sound Clean Air and their air quality tool:

Remember the Eastern Washington Burn Ban remains effective through Monday, September, 24, 2012 .

Air Quality forecast, 8AM Friday 21 September 2012
Issued by Ranil Dhammapala, Washington State Dept. of Ecology

Western WA has cleared out well under the stronger marine push and will stay that way today. Air quality in the Columbia Basin and the Palouse/ Spokane has been deteriorating very gradually over the last few days and is mostly in the "Unhealthy for sensitive groups" category this morning. Air in these areas may improve slightly but not hugely, Saturday evening through Sunday evening.

The areas of serious concern- located at the eastern foothills of the Cascades- continue to remain problematic. Air in Wenatchee has remained in the "Hazardous" category for several days now, with each day being a little worse than the previous. Cashmere and Entiat are in a similar situation, while Leavenworth, Ellensburg, the upper and lower Yakima Valley and Chelan have been recording Very Unhealthy conditions. This scenario is not expected to change much over the next few days.

The approach and passage of a low pressure system Friday night through Saturday evening gives rise to a small threat of dry lightning in the Washington Cascades mostly south of Lake Chelan. Given the dry fuels in the area, we can only pray that there won’t be new fires for the already stretched firefighters to contend with.

Some cooler temperatures are on tap for eastern WA next week and this should help reduce fire activity, but the kind of soaking rain needed is a notable absentee from the forecast.

The National Weather Service issued an Air Quality Alert for much of eastern Washington:
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=otx&wwa=air%20quality%20alert