Will it be a smoky September this year?

Current Fire Situation

Wildfires in Washington have grown in recent days. In particular, the Little Giant and Sinlahekin Fires had very active days yesterday. Tall smoke plumes were observed, reaching at least 30,000 feet above sea level according to radar data. 

 

Wildfires, smoke plumes, and clouds across the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday, August 26 at 5:50 p.m. local time. Notable heat and smoke are visible from the Sinlahehkin Fire near the border with Canada. Data: GOES-18 satellite imagery accessed via RAMMB/CIRA, CSU.

Large smoke plume over the Sinlahekin Fire on Wednesday, August 26. Photo credit: Derek Cook.

The forests are very dry and conditions remain active, particularly along the eastern slopes of the Cascades. The largest fires, by far, are Little Giant and Sinlahekin, but a handful of other fires in the Cascades are also uncontained and growing in remote wilderness. 

These are the main smoke-producing fires as of August 27: 

• Little Giant: 155,974 acres, 23% contained
• Sinlahekin: 162,630 acres, 56% contained
• Luna: 4,776 acres, 31% contained
• Border 2: 7,633 acres, 42% contained
• Sisi: 941 acres, 0% contained
• Three Queens: 8,240 acres, 5% contained
• Goat: 561 acres, 0% contained
• King: 1,835 acres, 0% contained
• Wonderland Complex: 314 acres, 0% contained
• High Lava: 2,771 acres, 25% contained

Additionally, large fires are ongoing to our north, in British Columbia, and to our south, in Oregon. See the BC Wildfire Map or Inciweb for more information.

Firefighters watch extreme fire behavior on the Sinlahekin Fire, August 11, 2026. Photo via Inciweb.

A Smoky Summer in North-Central Washington

It has been a smoky summer east of the Cascade crest, particularly in Chelan, Douglas, and Okanogan counties where smoke in August has been relentless. 

In Chelan County, according to EPA data, at least one air quality monitor in the county has experienced a 24-hour average AQI exceeding:

• UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS (AQI 101+), for 20 of the last 24 days.
• UNHEALTHY (AQI 151+), for 13 of the last 24 days. 
• VERY UNHEALTHY (AQI 201+), for 4 of the last 24 days (August 4-7, specifically).

Also keep in mind that particular times of day often had worse air quality than the 24-hour average. For example, Wenatchee experienced multiple mornings with HAZARDOUS (AQI 301+) readings in the past month, even if the 24-hour average settled out to something less extreme after air quality improved later in the day. 

While certainly severe, there have been other years with bad smoke in Chelan County. As seen above, notable smoky periods also occurred during fire seasons in 2012, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2025. 

Smoke this summer has drifted into other portions of eastern Washington, too, but generally not as continuously as in north-central Washington. 

Offshore Wind Season, Western Washington Outlook

The story is different in western Washington which has largely been protected so far this year by prevailing winds bringing in clean air in from the Pacific Ocean. Smoke from eastern Washington has drifted into the Cascades and Olympics at times, but surface air quality has generally been GOOD to MODERATE in more populated cities along the I-5 corridor and westward to the coast.

Perfect air quality looking west from the Space Needle Webcam in Seattle on Wednesday, August 26.

Will luck run out for the western side of the state in September? 

As long as fires continue to burn in the Cascades and eastern Washington, western Washington will need to watch closely for offshore wind events that reverse our typical prevailing winds and could bring smoky air westward. These periods of offshore winds tend to occur more often in September, putting much of western Washington at somewhat greater risk of smoke in the next month or so. 

While the next week ahead is forecast to bring cooler temperatures and even some light precipitation to western Washington, it likely won't be enough to extinguish many of the ongoing forest fires in the eastern Cascades. This is especially true because of ongoing drought stress and exceptionally dry vegetation conditions. According to the drought monitor, 71% of Washington state is now experiencing at least 'moderate' drought (level 1 of 4), with 25% of the state experiencing 'severe' (level 2 of 4) drought. Pockets of Okanogan County are in 'extreme' (level 3 of 4) drought. 

So, if we do get a period of dry, easterly winds in September, then forest fires could easily pick back up again and send smoke across the west side of the state.

September 2020 was a prime example of a strong offshore wind event that drove extreme wildfire growth and subsequent smoke impacts across the Pacific Northwest. This came after a relatively smoke-free summer. October 2022 was another example where late season fires in the Cascades funneled smoke into many western Washington communities. 

Additionally, we are losing more and more daylight. This means that nights are longer and cooler which tends to more easily trap smoke near the surface as we head into the early fall months. In summary, we are almost there, but smoke season is not over. For western Washington in particular, it could be just beginning.

Scooper above Lake Wenatchee with Little Giant Fire burning in the background. Photo via Inciweb.