Residents in Western WA are thankful the easterly winds have ended, and the smoke has mostly cleared out.
However, unhealthy smoke continues to persist in Central and Eastern WA, and it will take time for regional clearing. An Air Quality Alert for all of Central and Eastern WA is in effect until 1 pm on Wednesday (9/14/2022).
This week the cool temperatures and rising humidity should bring periodic light mountain showers, which could help to reduce fire activity in the Pasayten Wilderness and North Cascades region of WA. Winds will be light but general westerly flow should improve air quality in most locations over the next couple days. There is below normal potential for new significant fires or growth.
Residents who live near fires in Chelan, Douglas, Kittitas, and Okanogan counties will have to continue to live with any fresh smoke that is generated from local fires. Please see the Local Smoke Outlook tab for area specific forecasts provided by the ARA for North Central WA. Other mountain-valley communities on the western slopes of the Cascades may also smell smoke in the cool hours, due to smoke drainage. The Health Information tab on this blog has lots of information about how you can protect yourself from smoke.
Satellite imagery is filled with clouds today, but smoke and fire locations are generalized in the NOAA HMS image below. Note that some fire locations in the Cascades aren't showing up since cloud and smoke coverage were too thick.
Why are you and others saying that the air has cleared in Western Washington when we are still in yellow to orange? Looking at GEOS and Windy it appears that the winds are picking up smoke from offshore that is being blown north from the Oregon fires. Is that correct? Is there any prediction of when the air will really clear?
ReplyDeleteThank you for your comment. In Western WA, pollution has decreased from a high of Unhealthy (red) or higher two days ago to mostly Moderate (yellow). Though, as you noted, that Moderate level of pollution has persisted after the initial clearing. Further clearing should happen when the low pressure system currently offshore passes over us tomorrow.
DeleteAs for offshore smoke, there isn't too much and we expect that the smoke from OR will stay mostly upper level. So additional smoke impacts should be minimal.
Thank you for the update. Any idea why it’s taking so long to clear out? Saturday evening, I heard that my area (Phinney Ridge in Seattle) would have our “Good” air quality back Monday morning. Sadly, my reading here at home as of 4pm still indicates “Unhealthy.”
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comment. While we have seen significant clearing in Western WA, Moderate smoke levels are persisting. The low pressure system that is moving in will arrive a bit later than expected (Tuesday) and isn't super strong. That said it will pass directly over our area and should lead to more clearing. We will continue to monitor the situation over the coming days.
DeleteWhew, so glad to hear that. Can’t complain too much as this current event doesn’t compare to how awfully bad it was in September 2020. Appreciate your work in keeping us informed.
DeleteHi, thanks for all of the work that you do. I was wondering if you had any thoughts as to why some of the AQI monitors showed such different readings. For instance, the readings from iqair.com have consistently been 20-50 points higher than those from airnow.gov, even at the most granular level (say, a particular seattle neighborhood). When trying to determine safety levels for taking my infant daughter outside, 75 vs 120 seems like a significant difference to me and I'm having trouble deciding which reading to trust. Appreciate any thoughts. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteAfter looking at iqair, it appears they are not using an adequate correction for low-cost sensors (nor distinguishing them from official monitors). However, if you click on a dot, it tells you the Air Quality Data Contributor. Anonymous sources (low-cost sensors) are not as accurate as the stations operated by "Washington Air Monitoring Network" because they don't actually measure mass. If you use the fire.airnow.gov site (or this smoke blog), the low-cost sensors are indicated by a square and are corrected. You can also go to the purpleair site and choose the LRAPA conversion. Keep in mind that a difference of 45 AQI points is small at the clean end of the scale but quite large at the polluted end. See the breakpoints here: https://www2.iqair.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/AQI%29Chart_US.png
DeleteThank you Farren. That is super helpful!
DeleteMuch appreciate this information, I do wonder however why Port Townsend area is now being shown as 'orange' for the 15, 16 and 17th? What smoke will that be? Thank you!
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, the bias-correction scheme applied to the automated forecast system is giving a bad result. Expect Green in Port Townsend through those days. This type of issue is something we hope to correct by next year's smoke season.
DeleteI've updated the forecast for the Olympic Peninsula to override the model result. If anything changes, I will update as I can.
DeleteThanks so much for clarifying this ... take good care
DeleteThanks for the updated info., I was so disappointed when I saw the forecasted poor air quality since for the first time in 3 years I am heading over to Port Townsend Bay for a rowboat race! cheers and keep up the good work!
DeleteAny further information on the outlook for the east side? Even though our air quality alert is currently set to expire mid-day tomorrow, I see that the forecast here continues to show the southeastern part of the state in orange or red for as far out as it goes.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, the bias-correction scheme applied to the automated forecast system is giving a bad result. This type of issue is something we hope to correct by next year's smoke season. I expect that the USG and Moderate in the forecast for next couple days is accurate, and that the AQA will expire as scheduled tomorrow. In general I don't see any significant new smoke concerns so as soon as it clears it should stay in the Good to Moderate range.
DeleteAs the season winds down, I would like to thank everyone once again for maintaining this EXCELLENT SITE. We turn to it only when things are bad, we wish we did not need fire and smoke information in Washington state, but given that we do, we are grateful to have you!
ReplyDelete