Smoke Update and Outlook

Smoke Situation  

While things have been relatively quiet on fires in Washington, recent warmer and drier weather has increased fire activity and smoke production around fires in Oregon and Idaho. 

Localized smoke from fires in Oregon and Idaho. Courtesy: College of DuPage

 

Light, offshore winds are expected through Saturday which may bring light/moderate amounts of smoke over southern and western Washington. Air quality is expected to be Moderate for much of western Washington with some portions of southwest Washington seeing periods of Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. New fire starts or an increase in smoke output from existing fires could lead to locally worse air quality. Smoke is expected to clear gradually this weekend. 

Air Quality Advisories are currently in place for the following counties: Clark, Cowlitz, Lewis, Skamania, and Wahkiakum. 

To learn more or find out if there’s an Air Quality Advisory in place for your location, check with your local clean air agency. Air Quality Advisories may be put in place or removed at any time.  

For Air Quality Advisories on Reservations in Washington, visit: https://www.epa.gov/farr/burn-bans-indian-reservations-id-or-and-wa 

 

Forecast Outlook 

Relief from the heat and the smoke will come in phases from west to east. The first phase begins Friday as the seasonably strong ridge overhead begins to weaken. This will allow cooler onshore flow to reach the immediate coast, but these effects will be slow to move inland.  

East-southeast winds will continue to transport smoke from fires in Oregon into Washington through early Saturday, but an approaching upper-level disturbance will continue to chip away at the ridge, further weakening it and pushing it to the east. This will allow temperatures west of the Cascades to begin to cool, and smoke impacts will begin to lessen. 

 

Fire weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center highlighting the potential for dry thunderstorms in the Cascades on Saturday

This system does come with concern for fire danger. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon through early Sunday in the Cascades. Although the smoke situation will be improving with increasing onshore flow, fuels will be very receptive to new lightning ignitions.  

Onshore flow will bring cooler but still above average temperatures to western Washington on Sunday. Central and eastern Washington will remain warm with air quality concerns lingering. A stronger belt of westerly winds will impact the state on Monday as a system passes to our north. This will further alleviate widespread wildfire smoke, but at the same time will elevate fire weather conditions east of the Cascades. 

Statewide data roundup: air quality in review (so far)

Although this year's wildfire season isn't over yet, the recent good air quality allows some time to check in on this summer's air quality. And so far, there have been a few fires in Washington that have caused smoky days, but we mostly haven't observed transport of smoke from neighboring states or Canada. We also haven't (yet) observed strong easterly wind events that contribute to larger smoke events in Western WA. In the plot below, each row is a county in WA, which are organized by region. The colors correspond to the daily air quality index at the most impacted air quality monitor observed in each county on a given day since May 1. Areas experiencing poor air quality were largely closest to active fires (Chelan, Asotin, and Yakima Counties), but poor air quality was also associated with 4th of July fireworks.

Air quality index values by county and day since May 1. Boxes outline events (4th of July) and periods of smoke impacts in Asotin, Chelan, and Yakima Counties.

A closer look at a few of the fires that have caused smoke impacts so far:

Chelan and Okanogan Counties were impacted by the Pioneer Fire near Lake Chelan, which started on June 8. Looking at a few select air quality monitoring sites in Chelan and Okanogan Counties and the number of days of moderate or worse air quality--the worst impacts were closest to the fire in Stehekin, but the Chelan monitor at the southern part of the Lake also experienced a few days of air quality in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups and Unhealthy categories:

Number of days in each air quality category for select sites in Chelan and Okanogan Counties since the Pioneer Fire began. Note that good air quality days are not shown. Asterisks indicate temporary monitors.

The Retreat Fire near Naches began on July 23 and caused a few days of poor air quality before smoke production dramatically decreased.

Daily PM2.5 concentrations at monitoring sites in Yakima County while the Retreat Fire was active.

In Asotin County, Clarkston has been impacted mostly by the Cougar Creek Fire (which is now 80% contained and producing minimal smoke), as well as smoke from regional fires in Idaho. Since June, Clarkston has observed 4 days of Unhealthy air quality:

 

Number of days in each AQI category observed at the air quality monitor in Clarkston.

Smoke Outlook: Air quality in the state today is mostly good and moderate, and that will continue through tomorrow. However, hot and dry weather conditions starting Wednesday will increase smoke production and fire danger. We're keeping an eye on the potential for smoke impacts later this week in Southwest WA as smoke from fires in Oregon will drift over the region. As of now, impacts will likely be mostly moderate with the potential for a few hours of USG. Any smoke impacts will likely hang around until westerly flow returns later in the weekend. We'll update the blog with new information later this week.

Weekly Recap and Labor Day Weekend Weather and Smoke Outlook

Weekly Recap

Fire danger began its anticipated trend upward this week, highlighted by Tuesday afternoon which saw gusty winds and low relative humidity along the east slopes of the Cascades and across the Columbia Basin. This was highlighted by the Bauer Coulee Fire at exit 206 along I-90. 

The fire intermittently shut down eastbound I-90 and both directions of SR-21 Tuesday afternoon and evening. A large smoke plume was observed in Ritzville. 

Smoke from the Bauer Coulee Fire as seen from Ritzville around 1:30 p.m. Tuesday. (Courtesy: X/@ac_ws)

Air quality degradation caused by the fire was localized and mostly noticeable in rural areas along SR-21 and local roads just to the east of the fire. An air quality monitor in Ritzville did show an uptick in PM2.5, but the Air Quality Index did not reach Moderate levels.

Air Quality Index in Ritzville showing a brief uptick Tuesday afternoon.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the fire was 100% contained after burning 1,600 acres.

Labor Day Weekend Weather and Smoke Outlook

The primary smoke concern for this weekend will be from sources out of state. Friday morning air quality observations near Boise ranged from Unhealthy to Very Unhealthy. Some of this smoke will drift north and may impact Southeast Washington this weekend, including Colfax, Pullman, Pomeroy, and Clarkston. By the time it reaches Washington, the greatest smoke concentrations will be several thousand feet in the air, but some may settle at the surface overnight leading to pockets of Moderate air quality. The best chance for this to occur will be Sunday and near-surface smoke may linger into Monday.

A secondary concern will be for smoke output from the Williams Mine Fire burning just north of Trout Lake. Latest reports from the fire indicate increased smoke activity within the containment lines as fuels continue to dry out. With light easterly surface flow expected this weekend, down valley locations could see fluctuations between Good and Moderate air quality.

Elsewhere across the state, air quality is expected to be Good this weekend. Dry conditions are expected with temperatures trending well above normal on both sides of the state.

Fire danger increases Monday with all fire weather hazards coming into play. There will be a 30-50% chance of thunderstorms in the north Cascades. There will also be a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms for the central and southern Cascades as well as the Blue Mountains.

A push of westerly winds is expected by late Monday morning through the Cascade gaps. Peak gusts currently look to be in the 30-40mph range, focused on the Columbia Gorge and the usual windy spots on the east slopes of the Cascades.

A map depicting forecast 24-hour max wind gusts ending 11 p.m. on Monday, September 2.

Relative humidity is expected to gradually increase from west to east Monday afternoon, however, a few hours of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may be observed as gusty winds overlap with relative humidity initially in the 15-20% range.

As we head into the holiday weekend, please remember that a burn ban remains in effect on all Department of Natural Resources lands, including campfires in fire pits and the use of charcoal briquettes. Additionally, fireworks are illegal on all DNR protected lands. Visit the DNR Burn Restrictions website for more information. Have a safe and happy Labor Day weekend!

Fires Update and Weather Outlook

In Western WA, precipitation, cooler temperatures, and increased relative humidity have allowed crews to make significant progress on the 2620 Road/Jupiter Fire near Brinnon. The fire is now estimated at 403 acres and is 15% contained. Precipitation on Friday and Saturday is expected to keep fire activity low, and Good air quality is expected this weekend into next week.

In North Central WA, the Ruby and Easy Fires continue to burn along the newly reopened SR-20. Minimal growth has occurred over the past few days, however the Easy Fire remains 0% contained. The Pioneer Fire is now at 38,735 acres, only an 8 acre increase from last Sunday, witih containment at 23%. Good progress was also made on the Stayman Fire near Chelan, now at 3,118 acres burned and 42% containment. Incoming precipitation will further help to slow fire progress and smoke output. Good air quality is expected in Chelan, Stehekin, and the Methow Valley this weekend, though pockets of Moderate air quality are possible, especially with a drier forecast next week.

Fire activity and thunderstorms at the Williams Mine Fire on August 17, 2024. (Courtesy: Patrick Taylor, NW CIMT 13)

In South Central WA, the Williams Mine Fire has burned 11,764 acres and is 21% contained. Incoming precipitation should prevent further growth this weekend, and Good air quality is expected for Trout Lake and Glenwood. Latest reports from the fire indicate pockets of unburned fuels within the fire perimeter. With a warmer and drier weather in the forecast next week, increased smoke output can be expected and periods of Moderate air quality could begin as early as Tuesday. 

Smoke from the Williams Mine Fire near Mount Adams on August 17, 2024. (Courtesy: Patrick Taylor, NW CIMT 13)

The Retreat Fire is now 95% contained at 45,601 acres. Minimal smoke activity is expected from this fire moving forward.

In Northeast WA, the Upper Ruby Fire continues to burn actively in heavily forested terrain, though progress has slowed thanks to increased relative humidity in the past few days. The fire has burned 276 acres and is 0% contained. Gusty southerly winds are expected Friday evening as showers and embedded thunderstorms move north through the region. This may lead to a brief uptick in fire activity and smoke output. Smoke from the Upper Ruby Fire and fires burning in Idaho will lead to continued fluctuations in AQI from Good to Moderate.

Weather Outlook: A wetting rain is likely for much of western Washington through Saturday, the North Cascades and North Puget Sound in particular. Aside from the high terrain of far northern Washington, precipitation totals will be much less and more sporadic east of the Cascades. Friday afternoon and evening, gusty winds are expected along a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms that will move north through central and eastern Washington. This could lead to a brief uptick in fire activity, though increasing relative humidity and decreasing winds overnight should limit smoke transport. 

Friday afternoon and evening wind gust forecast. (Courtesy: NWS Spokane)

As the showers and storms push through, blowing dust may also contribute to a reduction in air quality and visibility. A Blowing Dust Advisory is in effect until 8 p.m. Friday and includes Moses Lake, Ritzville, Spokane, and Pullman. Fire danger and smoke output will be low both Saturday and Sunday. 

Blowing dust information graphic. (Courtesy: NWS Spokane, NWS Pendleton)

Looking ahead, warmer and mostly dry conditions are expected Monday. Tuesday, west winds will increase and relative humidity will decrease east of the Cascades, elevating fire danger and potential for smoke output. 

Weekend outlook and fire updates

Thanks to cooler weather and more humid conditions, air quality across the state has been generally good to moderate the last few days, aside from communities near active fires. Fires to note:

In Western Washington, the 2620 Road/Jupiter Fire began near Brinnon on Wednesday evening, and is reported at 445 acres. Smoke impacts will largely be localized to residents in and near the Brinnon area. It's unlikely that smoke from the fire will impact the Kitsap or Seattle areas this weekend.

The Jupiter Fire near Brinnon in Jefferson County (c/o Western WA Type 3 Incident Management Team).

In North Central WA, the Pioneer and Easy Fires continue to burn, yet have exhibited minimal growth the past couple of days. Air quality in Chelan, Stehekin, and the Methow will likely range from Good to Moderate.

In South Central WA, the Williams Mine Fire is now 11,302 acres. Smoke impacts will be the worst in Trout Lake and Glenwood, especially during the overnight hours as the smoke builds up. The SW Yakama Reservation also may observe periodic Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups air quality. Temporary air monitors have been deployed in both Trout Lake and Glenwood to monitor air quality conditions--these temporary air monitors are denoted by triangles on the fire and smoke map at the top of this page. The Retreat fire outside of Yakima is now 80% contained; the Yakima Valley should see mostly Good and Moderate air quality due to decreased fire behavior.  

Weekend outlook: A brief period of easterly flow on Saturday morning will potentially transport smoke from the North Cascades into Western Washington. However, impacts should stay moderate, and rain and thunderstorms arrive Saturday evening to clear out any transported smoke and mitigate impacts from the Jupiter Fire. In Eastern WA, forecasted thunderstorms today and tomorrow are unlikely to bring substantial rain; dry conditions contribute to a chance of new wildfire starts. 

Statewide Smoke Update

 

Fires of concern and recent satellite fire detections in Washington c/o Northwest Communication Center

 

Currently, the focus for thunderstorms is over the Cascade and northern mountains with potential for lightning to start new fires. Moving into the week, temperatures are expected to drop to average or slightly below, midweek.

Smoke conditions throughout the state have improved with most areas West of the Cascades showing GOOD air quality and MODERATE levels to the East. The Gorge will see some clearing as westerly winds push through the area with localized areas of smoke pooling nearest to the Williams Mine, Whisky Creek, and Sandstone Fires. Central Washington is expecting GOOD to MODERATE levels of smoke as well, due to a possible decrease in fire activity.

An Air Quality Alert remains in effect for all of Yakima County (excluding the Yakama Reservation) due to wildfires burning in the region. For more information, visit: https://www.yakimacleanair.org/

The EPA has also issued an Air Quality Advisory for the Yakama Reservation beginning August 1^st until further notice due to elevated levels of smoke from area fires. For more information, visit: https://www.epa.gov/farr/burn-bans-indian-reservations-id-or-and-wa

Statewide smoke update

Central and Eastern WA: shifting winds will bring smoke from the north

Smoke impacts continue in Central and Eastern WA from local and regional fires. Fires of note include the Pioneer and Easy Fires in North Central WA, the Retreat Fire near Yakima, and the Williams Mine Fire in the Gifford Pinchot National Forest. Canadian smoke has also entered the mix today--smoke from the Calcite Creek Fire in Southern British Columbia is currently impacting the Methow Valley. 

Fires of concern and recent satellite fire detections

The Retreat Fire outside of Yakima is now 53% contained, but active fire conditions today with strong winds will lead to Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups air quality southeast of the fire in Yakima Valley. 

Active fire conditions are also expected on the Pioneer and Easy Fires today due to strong W/NW winds, which will also push smoke to the Methow Valley and Stehekin.

The Williams Mine fire in the Gifford Pinchot National Forest started yesterday and has grown to 2,000 acres, and will likely increase further today. Shifting N/NE winds tomorrow could contribute to smoke impacts in the Columbia Gorge and communities southwest of the fire towards the Vancouver area. 

Smoke from the Calcite Creek Fire just across the border in Southern British Columbia will impact the region today through the week due to continued winds from the north and northeast. Most of central and eastern WA should expect Moderate to occasional Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups air quality. Communities closest to active fires can expect occasional Unhealthy air quality. Returning westerly winds this weekend will improve air quality. 

GOES-W satellite imagery from August 6 showing smoke plumes from the Williams Mine Fire in the Gifford Pinchot National Forest, the Retreat Fire in Yakima County, and fires in North Central WA and Southern British Columbia.

Western WA: Possibility of wildfire smoke in Western WA later this week
Graeme Carvlin, Puget Sound Clean Air Agency 

The westerly winds that have been blowing smoke away from Western Washington are expected to change course later this week.  Winds blowing from east to west will likely bring smoke into the region.  The four main fires that may contribute are:

• The Shetland Creek fire – located 100 miles north of the US-Canada border in British Columbia, currently 67,000 acres
• The Calcite Creek fire – located on the Canadian side of the Okanogan National Forest, currently 10,000 acres
• The Pioneer fire – Lake Chelan, currently 35,000 acres
• The Retreat fire – Yakima, currently 41,000 acres

Wildfire smoke could arrive in Western Washington Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  We may see an oscillating pattern where smoke comes into the region overnight then clears out somewhat during the day.  This could be the case for Thursday night into Friday morning as well.  Areas near the Cascades, which are closer to the fires, will likely see more smoke than central Puget Sound and the rest of Western WA. Thurston County also may reach Moderate air quality.

Winds are expected to change back to westerly this weekend, which should help clear out any smoke.  Air quality could reach Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) near the Cascades and Moderate with peaks into USG across the Puget Sound region. 

Heat and Some Smoke in Eastern WA

After a cooldown earlier this week, major to extreme heat has returned to eastern Washington. Temperatures will soar into the triple digits today with daily record highs possible across many locations east of the Cascades, prompting the National Weather Service to issue an Excessive Heat Warning, valid until 8pm Saturday. While the heat should ease somewhat by Sunday, above normal temperatures are likely to continue through at least the middle of next week across the state. 

Active large fires such as the Retreat Fire near Yakima will respond to this heat and are likely to see increased fire behavior and smoke production today through the weekend. Air quality is already MODERATE across much of eastern WA with UNHEALTHY values in localized areas closer to active fires. As a result, an Air Quality Alert remains in effect across all of Okanogan, Ferry, and Yakima Counties as well as the Colville and Yakima Reservations, until further notice. However, due to a reduction in smoke in localized areas, the Air Quality Alert has ended for Chelan and Asotin counties. Skies are also hazy in western WA due to smoke aloft, but surface air quality is expected to remain in the GOOD category. 

A star helicopter on the Retreat Fire, west of Yakima. August 1, 2024. Image via InciWeb. 

Looking ahead into next week the outlook is largely the same for the eastern half of the state, with continued MODERATE air quality impacts at times due to westerly winds pushing smoke from active fires off to the east. Additionally it's worth mentioning that, while uncertain, there is a possibility of isolated to scattered lightning strikes across the eastern half of the state today through Tuesday, which could bring isolated new fire ignitions and new sources of smoke. That being said, a widespread dry lightning event is not expected.

After that, we're watching for a possible wind shift out of the north around Wed-Thurs next week which could bring more significant smoke into different communities than we've seen lately. At this time, however, there are no obvious smoke concerns in the forecast for areas west of the Cascades.