Thursday, August 7, 2014

Smoke Model Runs for 8-8-14

Smoke Modeling

People in Washington know that the concentration of smoke at any one place can change continuously during the day.  We can measure these changing levels hour by hour with monitors.  We can also estimate them hour by hour with computer models.  EPA sets health standards for smoke that are based on 24-hour averages.  Therefore it is useful to not only know the peak hourly impact at any point (the smokiest hour) but also the 24-hour average.

The following figures show these two different outputs for tomorrow.  The first shows the highest hourly value modeled for each point on the map over that day.  This would be the worst smoke you would see if you stood at the same point all day.  The second map shows the 24-hour average of all the hours you would see at the same point all day.  The darker the red color the heavier the smoke.  Naturally the daily average maps are not as dark because the hourly values for the entire day are averaged at each point on the map – smoothing out any spikes.

Figures Showing Daily Maximum Hourly and Daily Average Smoke Predictions for Aug 8, 2014

NOTE: This model was developed by Forest Service Research and the output is experimental, and as with all models may not be accurate.  Remember: all models are wrong – some models are useful! 

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