Monday, September 22, 2025

Fall begins but wildfire season continues

Rainfall over the weekend provided some short-term relief from the smoke, but strong winds fueled fire growth in the Cascades. The Labor Mountain Fire north of Cle Elum especially exhibited extreme fire behavior as it pushed east, and an Air Quality Alert is in effect in Chelan and Douglas Counties until further notice. 

MODIS-Terra imagery 11am September 22, 2025 showing smoke plumes and active wildfires throughout the state.

Today will be cooler with calmer winds, which will help to moderate conditions, but warm and dry weather returns Tuesday through midweek. 

Light offshore flow Tuesday will briefly transport smoke into Western Washington before onshore winds return Wednesday. Air quality will likely be moderate with the potential for periods of USG. The forecast below (valid tomorrow evening) illustrates expected smoke transport into Puget Sound and surface-level impacts.

Cross-section forecast from the HRRR smoke model, valid at 6pm Tuesday.

Fire Roundup

  • Olympics (Bear Gulch and Tunnel Creek): This weekend's rain tempered fire behavior temporarily, but we're still waiting for that large rain event to fully diminish fire activity. With warmer, drier weather ahead, smoke will increase. Communities around Lake Cushman and Hoodsport should expect continued smoke, especially overnight and into the early mornings. We're also monitoring potential smoke impacts in the Puget Sound later this week. 
  • Cascades: The Labor Mountain, Lower Sugarloaf, and Wildcat Fires continue to grow and generate smoke. These fires also received limited rain over the weekend, and will continue to produce smoke with the upcoming warm and dry weather. Smoke will continue to funnel into valley communities, with elevated concentrations overnight and into the mornings. Areas east of Cle Elum along I-90 to Ellensburg will also observe intermittent smoke due to the recent growth of the Labor Mountain Fire.
  • Northeast WA (Lynx Mountain, Crown Creek, Katy Creek, Tacoma Creek, Rattlesnake): Persistent smoke continues to impact nearby communities and will continue to do so until significant rain arrives.

When will it rain?

Unfortunately, the end of the month is trending drier than hoped for. The next chance for rain appears to be early next week, but this is still fairly uncertain. Gusty winds Thursday and Friday in Eastern WA could also further intensity fire activity and increase smoke production.

Dynamic smoke impacts over the weekend

This weekend featured some interesting smoke dynamics. On Friday, smoke from the Bear Gulch fire impacted Mason and Thurston Counties, but impacts varied widely depending on location, even within the same city. While Shelton was experiencing very unhealthy air quality, Lacey only reached moderate levels. Even within Olympia, conditions differed: West Olympia saw unhealthy air quality, while downtown and in East Olympia concentrations were noticeably lower. 
PM2.5 concentrations from monitors in Lacey and Shelton as well as low cost sensors in Olympia.


In Wenatchee, monitors within 5 miles of one another also recorded drastically different PM2.5 concentrations at the same time as dynamic winds moved smoke through the area yesterday. 
PM2.5 concentrations measured in Wenatchee Sept. 21.


Friday, September 19, 2025

How much clearing will Sunday's rain bring?

Current snapshot

(Update 3:18 pm 9/19/2025)

Smoke has drifted into communities around the eastern coast of the Olympic peninsula, in Mason and Thurston county, with hazardous air quality in Hoodsport and Lake Cushman. An Air Quality Alert has been issued by the Olympic Region Clean Air Agency in Mason and Thurston county through Saturday due to current wildfire smoke from the Bear Gulch Fire. 

Communities along the eastern slopes of the Cascades and portions of northeast Washington are also experiencing continued smoke with valley spikes near active fires. Monitors around Wenatchee, Entiat, and Yakima as well as parts of NE Washington have exhibited USG to Unhealthy as smoke drained overnight.  

MODIS-Terra Imagery - 9/19/2025 - 11 am PDT

How much rain is expected?

Sunday rain is expected in Western Washington and in the Cascades with roughly 0.5–1.5″ in the mountains and lowlands generally 0.25–0.5″. The Olympics and higher Cascades should see enough rain to reduce fire activity and smoke production. However, leeward sides of the mountains and the Columbia basin will largely miss out on this round of rain, so slower recovery is expected.

The worst air will be near fire perimeters and in valley drainages through Saturday night. Broad relief should become apparent Sunday afternoon across areas that receive measurable rain and along the western lowlands, while interior basins and portions of NE Washington may require many more days before PM2.5 drops into the Good range. 


Total rainfall through Sunday - NWS

Olympic Peninsula / Hood Canal

Bear Gulch (18,700 acres, ~6% containment) is the primary smoke source for the northeastern Olympics and adjacent Hood Canal shorelines. The Tunnel Creek fire is also adding to the mix. The arriving cold front late Saturday night into Sunday will bring rainfall and a push of onshore winds that should reduce smoke by Sunday afternoon.  However, expect localized overnight pooling and lingering haze adjacent to the fire through Monday morning.  

Central Cascades

Wildcat (~8,850 acres, 8% containment), Lower Sugarloaf (~20,100 acres, 20% containment) and Labor Mountain (~5,980 acres, 7% containment) remain the biggest contributors to valley smoke in Central Washington. Smoke has been funneling into river valleys, with worst conditions overnight and early morning when the boundary layer is shallow. Sunday’s front should reduce active fire behavior at higher elevations and flush valley smoke out of many lowland areas by late Sunday, though drainage will likely continue. The forecast shows limited rainfall in this region, so improvement is uncertain.  Winds in the basin will increase with the front, providing ventilation, but not the moisture expected on the coast and mountains. 

Northeast Washington (Lynx Mountain, Crown Creek, Katy Creek, Tacoma Creek, Rattlesnake)

Fires in Ferry, Stevens and Pend Oreille counties continue to produce persistent smoke. This corner of the state is the most likely to experience sustained elevated PM2.5 through the weekend. The incoming frontal system will bring only scattered, lighter showers so only gradual improvement is expected. 

Outlook into next week

A high pressure system is expected to build next week, favoring warmer, drier, and generally cleaner conditions statewide.  However, fire activity is expected to continue in most locations currently impacted.

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Bear Gulch Fire Growth and Statewide Wildfire Update

Bear Gulch Fire Grows Significantly

Yesterday evening, the Bear Gulch Fire grew significantly, producing dramatic images while sending a smoke plume northward. The fire spread was driven by warm, dry conditions and strong easterly winds, with the majority of the fire growth occurring to the north.

Satellite imagery from yesterday evening showing smoke plumes from the Bear Gulch as well as fires in Central Washington. GOES-West 17Sep2025 00:41Z


The plume impacted surface air quality in Port Angeles for several hours and contributed to vibrant sunsets elsewhere in the region.
PM2.5 concentrations measured at Port Angeles yesterday and this morning. Data accessed 8am 9/17/2025.

Smoke continues to linger in areas north of the fire (the plume has now reached as far north as Vancouver BC), although onshore flow today should improve air quality. However, smoke will continue to impact communities closest to the fire, and haze will be visible across the Olympic Peninsula. The webcam from Hurricane Ridge showcased the smoke layer this morning:

Visible smoke from the Hurricane Ridge webcam this morning.

Additional air quality monitors in Snohomish County are observing moderate smoke impacts--largely due to the combination of westerly and down-valley flow transporting lingering smoke. These conditions are expected to improve by the end of today, but haze will likely persist aloft. 

Fires in Central and Eastern WA 

  • Central Washington: the Lower Sugarloaf and Labor Mountain fires in Central WA continue to exhibit active fire behavior. Smoke transport is trending southeast, continuing to impact Entiat overnight as it pools in valleys, as well as Plain and nearby areas. Cle Elum and communities nearby along I-90 also are currently observing smoke impacts; these impacts should decrease throughout the day.
  • Northeast Washington: Containment efforts continue on the slew of fires in Northeast WA and smoke impacts are mostly confined to nearby communities. Inchelium is currently experiencing the heaviest smoke, with reports of "super fog" near the Lynx Mountain Fire. If you're in the area, please use caution while driving.

Outlook
Cooler, more moist conditions, and potential rainfall this weekend should help moderate fire behavior and improve smoke conditions across the region. Further out, the chances for significant rain look promising near the end of the month.  

Monday, September 15, 2025

Brief Smoke Impacts Possible for Western Washington Tonight and Tomorrow

Active Cascade Fires and Smoke Production

Winds are forecast to shift east-southeast this afternoon, carrying smoke and haze from the Cascade fires into Puget Sound by sometime this evening into tomorrow morning. Light rainfall over the weekend eased fire conditions briefly, but fire activity remains largely unchanged. With low containment (see below in "current fire size" section) and warmer conditions returning today, smoke production may increase from these fires. Air quality in the Puget Sound could possibly reach MODERATE levels. Localized areas of  UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS for brief periods are possible, particularly closer to the Cascade foothills, and in King and Snohomish counties. Overall, air quality impact in the Puget Sound will depend on how much smoke is produced from the Cascade wildfires today.

Average Rainfall Amounts from the Weekend

Outlook for Tuesday and Beyond

Easterly winds will peak on Tuesday, but the strongest winds will remain west of the Cascade fires, limiting fire growth. Higher relative humidity will also help keep fire activity low. With reduced activity, smoke impacts west of the Cascades are not expected to worsen on Tuesday, and conditions should improve further by Wednesday as winds shift back to a westerly pattern.

Warm and dry conditions later this week may ramp up smoke impacts in localized areas near current fires in northeastern Washington. 

Current Fire Size and Containment


Cascade Fires

Northeastern Fires

Scooper dropping water on Labor Mountain Fire, photo by Dwayne Eager, Line Medic 

Bear Gulch and Localized Air Quality Concerns

The Bear Gulch Fire (currently at 10,958 acres and 9% containment) is producing HAZARDOUS air quality around Lake Cushman this morning. Easterly winds this afternoon may push smoke into Mason County, Grays Harbor County, and Northwestern Thurston County, raising air quality levels to MODERATE, however the extent of the impacts remain uncertain. The highest concentrations of smoke will remain along Lake Cushman. 

Hourly PM2.5 concentrations measured in Lake Cushman over the past week, Source: fire.airnow.gov

Air Quality Alerts Lifted

Air Quality Alerts have been lifted for Chelan, Stevens, Pend Oreille, and Ferry counties, with no remaining AQAs around the state.


Friday, September 12, 2025

Several Fires Continue to Cause Smoke Impacts

Air quality concerns are concentrated near active fires, and these smoke impacts are expected to continue through at least the weekend. 

Overview of Active Fires

Statewide fire and smoke conditions captured 9/12/2025. Source: NASA Worldview


  • Lower Sugarloaf and Labor Mountain Fires (Chelan and Kittitas Counties): these fires continue to produce significant smoke in the Entiat Valley and surrounding areas. Downslope winds are transporting smoke daily, and the smoke is accumulating in the valley. This pattern is expected to persist.
Hourly PM2.5 concentrations measured in Entiat over the past week. Source: Ecology, data accessed 10am.


  • Northeast WA fires (including the Crown Creek, Lynx Mountain, Katy Creek, Rattlesnake, and Tacoma Creek): Containment has increased on many of these fires due to firefighting efforts, but communities near active fires should expect smoke through the weekend.
  • Wildcat Fire: Smoke impacts have decreased, although warm and dry conditions today and tomorrow will sustain fire activity and produce localized smoke. Potential rainfall on Sunday will improve air quality in the area.
  • Bear Gulch (Lake Cushman area): Minimal fire growth and reduced activity have helped to improve air quality in the area. Cooler temperatures and increased moisture will continue to moderate fire behavior, although nearby communities may continue to see intermittent smoke. The Tunnel Creek Fire 10 miles west of Quilcene may also contribute to localized smoke impacts. 
Air quality alerts continue in Chelan, Ferry, Pend Oreille, and Stevens Counties. Elsewhere in the state, air quality is expected to range from good to moderate. 

Looking ahead
No widespread wetting rain is expected in the near term. Warm and dry conditions will continue through Saturday, with a slight chance of showers Sunday into Monday. After that brief reprieve, warm and dry weather will likely return middle of next week. Unfortunately, communities closest to active fires should expect ongoing smoke impacts for as long as those fires remain active.

Tuesday, September 9, 2025

Ongoing Smoke Impacts Near Active Fires

Air quality across the state continues to gradually improve, with the main exception being areas closest to active fires. Fire behavior has also eased thanks to cooler and wetter conditions, although fire activity is expected to remain active for the Lower Sugarloaf and Labor Mountain Fires in the East Cascades and the Crown Creek, Lynx Mountain, Katy Creek, Rattlesnake, and Tacoma Creek Fires in Northeast WA. Fire activity for the Wildcat Fire east of Mount Rainier is expected to decrease. The Bear Gulch Fire near Lake Cushman is also expected to remain active, although growth has been minimal over recent days. In general, communities closest to active fires should expect intermittent to persistent smoke impacts as long as those fires burn. Air Quality Alerts remain in Chelan, Ferry, Stevens, and Pend Oreille Counties.

The map at the top of this page includes a toggle to show daily zonal smoke forecasts. More localized forecasts for areas closest to active fires are also available by clicking on the forecast boxes on the map or check out the local outlooks tab on the blog.

The updated plot below looking at the total number of USG or worse days measured at monitoring sites during this smoke event underscores how difficult it has been to fully escape the smoke, especially in Central and Eastern WA.

Total number of USG or worse days measured at monitoring sites during this smoke event. Note that this does not include temporary monitors or low-cost sensors.

Cooler temperatures and scattered showers are beneficial to further improvements in air quality and reduced fire behavior, although no widespread wetting rain is expected in the near term. Looking ahead, we'll keep an eye on fire activity and the potential return of warmer and drier weather into next week. For now, enjoy the much-improved air quality.

Monday, September 8, 2025

Weekend Smoke Recap and A Look at the Week Ahead

Friday's Northern King County Smoke Event

Lake Forest Park air quality data from the Washington Department of Ecology.

Smoke levels spiked quickly in the several communities just north of Seattle Friday evening. PM2.5 concentrations at the Lake Forest Park air monitor peaked at 4:00PM, climbing briefly into the Very Unhealthy range, and prompting an Air Quality Alert as mentioned in the previous blog post.

GOES-18 visible satellite imagery. 9-5-2025 3:40 PM PDT

With several active fires in the state, you'd think it would be easy to find the culprit. Satellite imagery from late Friday afternoon shows both the Wildcat Fire and the Labor Mountain Fire burning actively. The Wildcat smoke plume, however, was still to the southeast of the impacted area as PM2.5 concentrations began to rise. 

In addition to the smoke plumes on satellite, a layer of smoke can be seen blanketing most of the state. Convective clouds can also be seen as mid-level moisture and instability moved northward into Washington. You can see some of these cloud features extending from western King County toward the Olympic Peninsula in the satellite image above.

GOES-18 visible satellite imagery. 9-5-2025 4:00 PM PDT

At this point in the day, these showers weren't very strong. At 4:00 PM, as concentrations were peaking at Lake Forest Park, you can see the band of clouds fizzling over far northwestern King County. The plume from the Wildcat Fire is still east of the impacted area.

As convective showers decay, they tend to produce downdrafts. A downdraft is a current of sinking air often associated with thunderstorms. This can be quite dramatic with a big thunderstorm on the plains, but they can also occur with weaker convective showers as well. It's hard to say with 100% certainty, but this is likely what occurred on Friday. As the clouds fizzled, a weak downdraft likely pushed some of the smoke toward the surface right into Lake Forest Park and surrounding communities. 

Eastern Washington Update

This prolonged period of poor air quality east of the Cascades continued through the weekend. Northeast Washington has been the hardest hit. Colville has reported UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS or worse since September 3rd. Several PurpleAirs along Lake Roosevelt and points south along the Columbia River have experienced periods of HAZARDOUS air quality due to active and, at times, extreme fire behavior on the Crown Creek, Katy Creek, Tacoma Creek, Snow Peak, and Lynx Mountain fires.

Further south along the Columbia, smoke from these fires in addition to the Rattlesnake Fire has brought the AQI to UNHEALTHY levels near the Grand Coulee Dam and even as far south as Soap Lake. 

On the east slopes of the Cascades, smoke from the Lower Sugarloaf Fire continued to impact Ardenvoir, Chelan, and Entiat, while smoke from the Wildcat Fire drained into the upper Naches Valley each morning.

The weekend also saw abundant lightning with more than 2,000 strikes in total across the state. Precipitation associated with these thunderstorms was very hit or miss, and new lightning ignitions have been discovered in the past 24 hours. Holdover ignitions will need to be monitored as the week progresses. With moderated fire weather conditions, smoke impacts from any new incidents are not expected to be widespread.

The Week Ahead

Air quality has improved over the weekend in western Washington, and that is expected to continue through the week with GOOD to MODERATE conditions expected. Fire activity at Bear Gulch has lowered with improved relative humidity and cooler temperatures, and monitors along Lake Cushman were also in the green Monday morning. Periods of elevated AQI can't be ruled out in the morning hours but expect more GOOD days this week.

East of the Cascades, air quality currently ranges from GOOD to VERY UNHEALTHY. The best air quality is generally found in south-central Washington and the Palouse. Heavier smoke remains in northeast Washington and in the previously mentioned impacted drainages. Because of this, Air Quality Alerts will remain in place in Chelan, Douglas, Ferry, Grant, Pend Oreille, Stevens, Yakima, and Benton counties.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue along and east of the Cascades through at least mid-week. Once again, a mix of wet and dry storms are expected, and new ignitions are possible. Fortunately, cooler temperatures and improved relative humidity recovery should help initial attack on new incidents and reduce fire behavior on existing incidents. That said, with fuels as dry as they are, the fires already on the landscape will likely continue producing smoke impacts at a local level.

Friday, September 5, 2025

Air Quality Alert for King and Snohomish Counties

An Air Quality Alert for smoke has been issued by Puget Sound Clean Air Agency until 1200 PM PDT Saturday. 

Wildfires burning in Washington and Canada will continue to cause air quality to reach Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups to Unhealthy levels for portions of King County and southern Snohomish County.

Everyone, especially sensitive groups, should limit time spent outdoors, avoid strenuous activities outdoors, and choose light indoor activities.

For current and forecasted air quality conditions visit www.pscleanair.gov.

Friday Smoke Update: Poor Air Quality and Hazy Skies

Smoke continues to blanket the state, as seen on satellite imagery. Up until this week, it had been a relatively smoke-free summer in Washington--until mid-August, not a single monitoring site in Washington had recorded a day in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range or worse (out of 128 total monitoring sites). It is important to note that monitoring sites do not cover every location in the state, and some areas (i.e., Lake Cushman) have experienced worse smoke than what is captured by the statewide air monitoring network. This past week, multiple monitoring sites across the state reported several days of USG or worse air quality conditions. Even Western WA has seen impacts, as the Mount Rainier monitoring site observed smoke impacts from the Wildcat Fire. Thus far, monitoring sites in Southeast WA haven't observed any days greater than moderate AQI:

Total number of days USG or worse observed by monitoring sites over the past few days. Note that this does not include temporary monitors or low-cost sensors.


Current Fire and Smoke Conditions

Active fires grew substantially yesterday, including the Lower Sugarloaf Fire north of Leavenworth, Wildcat Fire west of Naches, Perry Fire northeast of Newhalem, and multiple fires in northeast WA (including the Crown Creek and Rattlesnake Fires).

East of the Cascades, Southeast Washington remains the "cleanest" part of the region, with conditions generally at the upper level of the moderate AQI range, although smoke may drift in from Idaho this afternoon. Winds east of the Cascades will stay light today and tomorrow; unfortunately, current smoke conditions are expected to persist. The Air Quality Alert for all counties in Central and Eastern WA remains in place through at least the weekend. 

In Western WA, hazy skies will continue today and tomorrow. Smoke from the Wildcat Fire may impact the foothills, including Packwood and Enumclaw. Periods of USG are also possible in eastern King, eastern Pierce, and western Kitsap counties today and tomorrow. There will be heavy smoke at high elevations in the Cascades. Impaired air quality will also continue near Lake Cushman due to the Bear Gulch Fire. Elsewhere in Western WA, air quality at the surface will mostly range from good to moderate, with the best air quality along the coast. 

During this smoke event, much of the smoke in Western Washington remains aloft in the atmosphere. You can see it, but you can't breathe it. A ceilometer--a laser based instrument that measures the vertical profile of the atmosphere helps to visualize upper level smoke. Data from the Seattle-Beacon Hill ceilometer over the past 24 hours shows the smoke layer overhead:

Ceilometer data from Seattle-Beacon Hill for the past 24 hours. Source: Puget Sound Clean Air Agency.

When will this end?

East of the Cascades, air quality in Central and Eastern Washington will remain poor through this weekend. While shifting winds may move the smoke around and concentrations may fluctuate slightly, much of the region will stay socked in until a stronger push of cleaner air arrives. A further concern: increasing winds on Sunday could increase fire activity. Potential thunderstorms this weekend could also lead to new fire starts. 

Upcoming cooler and wetter weather should moderate fire activity, but the best chance for significant clearing isn't expected until early to middle of next week. Communities closest to active fires will continue experiencing smoke impacts as long as those fires remain active.

Western WA will likely see an end to hazy skies by the end of the weekend.

We'll update as needed, and continue to keep an eye on the map at the top of this page for current and forecasted air quality conditions. 

Smoke and your health
When there is wildfire smoke, take the following steps to protect yourself and your family:
  • Stay inside with cleaner indoor air:
  • If you must go outside, wear a well-fitting N95 mask, limit physical exertion, and stay hidrated.
  • Local health departments and fire districts are great resources for finding wildfire and cleaner air shelter.
  • Check in on your neighbors and people in your community during a smoke event.
For more information on how to protect ourself, visit DOH's Smoke from Fires page.

Thursday, September 4, 2025

Thursday Smoke Update

Wildfires in central and eastern Washington showed extreme fire behavior on Wednesday. In particular, the Wildcat Fire was intense enough to tap into mid-level moisture and generate its own thunderstorm, also known as a pyro-cumulonimbus cloud. Later in the evening, the Lower Sugarloaf Fire did the same thing!

Fires burning actively across Washington and British Columbia on Wednesday, September 4. A fire-generated thunderstorm, or pyro-cumulonimbus cloud, can be seen first above the Wildcat Fire in Yakima County and then above the Lower Sugarloaf Fire in Chelan County. Image via CIRA/RAMMB.

Fire-generated thunderstorm over the Wildcat Fire on Wednesday, September 3, viewed from the Paradise Visitor Center at Mount Rainier National Park. Photo courtesy Tom Banse.

With the fire activity across British Columbia and Washington, much of the state is now under a blanket of wildfire smoke. An air quality alert is in effect for all counties of central and eastern Washington through the weekend and possibly beyond. The alert will be re-evaluated on Monday.

GOES-18 satellite imagery valid 8:36 a.m. on Thursday, September 4.

Despite the hazy skies, not all of Washington is experiencing poor air quality at the surface. In fact much of western Washington, especially west of I-5, is experiencing GOOD air quality due to the influence of onshore flow and marine air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. 

That being said, air quality is certainly deteriorated across the Cascades and much of eastern Washington, ranging from MODERATE to HAZARDOUS. Impacts are particularly notable across the Methow Valley, much of NE Washington, and around the Wildcat Fire. Locally near Lake Cushman, air quality is also significantly deteriorated due to the Bear Gulch Fire.

Air quality index measurements via the EPA Fire and Smoke Map, valid 11:46 a.m. on Thursday, September 4. The worst impacts are evident in Northeastern WA, Yakima County/Mt. Rainier, and near Lake Cushman. 

Air quality across central and eastern Washington is expected to remain poor or even get worse in some areas through the weekend. In western Washington, light easterly flow will also pull smoke overhead, though the expectation is that most of the heavier smoke concentrations will remain at elevations above 1,000'-2,000', with less concentration at the surface in the Puget Lowlands. That being said, it will be a very smoky weekend in the higher elevations of the Cascades. Keep in mind, this is just a forecast. With this much smoke moving overhead, it's recommended to check current air quality conditions often for anyone across the state.

Cross-section from the HRRR smoke model, valid at 5:00 a.m. Saturday morning. Heavy smoke is likely in the Cascades and Columbia Basin. The model indicates relatively less smoke at the surface in Puget Sound. 

Going forward, there could be modest clearing on Sunday into Monday, especially in western Washington and through the Columbia Gorge as stronger onshore winds arrive. Cooler temperatures and some moisture next week should help with control efforts on some of the large fires across the state, but it likely won't be enough to put the fires out. Smoke will continue to affect portions of eastern Washington as long as those fires continue to burn. 

Additional blog updates will continue through the duration of this smoke event.