Bear Gulch Fire Grows Significantly
Yesterday evening, the Bear Gulch Fire grew significantly, producing dramatic images while sending a smoke plume northward. The fire spread was driven by warm, dry conditions and strong easterly winds, with the majority of the fire growth occurring to the north.
 |
| Satellite imagery from yesterday evening showing smoke plumes from the Bear Gulch as well as fires in Central Washington. GOES-West 17Sep2025 00:41Z |
 |
| PM2.5 concentrations measured at Port Angeles yesterday and this morning. Data accessed 8am 9/17/2025. |
Smoke continues to linger in areas north of the fire (the plume has now reached as far north as Vancouver BC), although onshore flow today should improve air quality. However, smoke will continue to impact communities closest to the fire, and haze will be visible across the Olympic Peninsula. The webcam from Hurricane Ridge showcased the smoke layer this morning:
 |
| Visible smoke from the Hurricane Ridge webcam this morning. |
Additional air quality monitors in Snohomish County are observing moderate smoke impacts--largely due to the combination of westerly and down-valley flow transporting lingering smoke. These conditions are expected to improve by the end of today, but haze will likely persist aloft.
Fires in Central and Eastern WA
- Central Washington: the Lower Sugarloaf and Labor Mountain fires in Central WA continue to exhibit active fire behavior. Smoke transport is trending southeast, continuing to impact Entiat overnight as it pools in valleys, as well as Plain and nearby areas. Cle Elum and communities nearby along I-90 also are currently observing smoke impacts; these impacts should decrease throughout the day.
- Northeast Washington: Containment efforts continue on the slew of fires in Northeast WA and smoke impacts are mostly confined to nearby communities. Inchelium is currently experiencing the heaviest smoke, with reports of "super fog" near the Lynx Mountain Fire. If you're in the area, please use caution while driving.
Outlook
Cooler, more moist conditions, and potential rainfall this weekend should help moderate fire behavior and improve smoke conditions across the region. Further out, the chances for significant rain look promising near the end of the month.
weather forecast shows potential rain this weekend but your forecast smoke map shows increasing spread of smoke across the state on monday after the rains. Is the effect of the rain so minimal that smoke would increase the day after? thanks for your reply
ReplyDeleteThanks for your question. The automated forecast system is largely based on the HYSPLIT dispersion model. While there are parameters in place to reduce model emissions during wet weather, the model itself does not account for deposition that occurs during rain, clearing smoke. This is one reason why we make manual adjustments to the forecast most mornings. Check back later this morning for the updated forecast that has been manually adjusted.
Deleteyour forecast is for the entire olympic peninsula to be covered in smoke this next week. Given the air quality near the hoh rainforest is good right, that means you expect air quality to deteriorate significantly next week? we are trying to decide where to go hiking and your forecast doesnt show much hope. just wanting to confirm before we possibly cancel our trip. thank you
ReplyDeleteThe Bear Gulch fire is expected to receive significant rain this weekend, so I would expect heavily reduced fire activity and smoke next week. Please use caution when checking the forecast early in the morning. The 6 am forecast is from an automated system based on HYSPLIT dispersion and previous fire activity. It usually represents a worst case scenario. Please check back later this morning for an updated forecast. Also, realize that the zonal forecast has limitations, so while a polygon may show "moderate" it could be only part of that polygon actually experiencing USG while the rest is experiencing good (e.g. zonal average).
ReplyDeletethank you for your reply. Yes, i understand it is not a precise forecast geographically, We are trying to pick a location in WA next week where we could spend 3-4 days in a row hiking with a high probability of no smoke effects. We thought that might be the Hoh rainforest but we are close to deciding there is no location that will be smoke free for several days in a row.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately we are at an inflection point with the forecast for Bear Gulch, since the rain amounts are uncertain. The Monday forecast is going to be much more informative than anything we can predict right now, since we can see how much the rain helped. If the fire remains active through Monday, there is potential for the southern part of the Olympics (and out to Quinault) to get moderate smoke on Tuesday. But westerly winds are expected to be strong throughout the rest of next week. So you should have fresh marine air Wednesday forward.
DeleteYou should get at least some smoke free days at the Hoh next week. If you want to go a bit further, air around Lake Ozette, Cape Flattery, and Shi Shi Beach should be clean, as long as there are no new fires in unexpected locations. There are some beautiful hikes in those areas.
DeleteThank you Odelle. unfortunately, it is quite an investment to travel halfway across the country just hoping that we can avoid smoke. And then the extensive road time it would take to leave an area which gets smoky and travel somewhere else seems significant and not good use of vacation time. appreciate your thoughts
ReplyDelete