Friday Smoke Snapshot and Updated Weekend Outlook

Friday Smoke Snapshot 

As expected, smoke is currently blanketing much of the state mostly due to wildfires in Oregon producing large plumes that have drifted north. In Washington, the Williams Mine Fire has also been more active in the past few days which has contributed to local smoke impacts. The Huckleberry Ridge Fire, burning in southwest Lewis County, began on September 4th. So far, it has burned 100 acres and is also contributing to localized smoke impacts. Additionally, the Whiskey Creek Fire on the Oregon side of the Columbia River in the gorge has seen increased activity with a smoke plume visible Friday afternoon.

Wildfire smoke over Washington as seen from the GOES-West satellite Friday afternoon.

Air Quality Advisories remain in place for the following counties: Clark, Cowlitz, Lewis, Skamania, and Wahkiakum, until Saturday morning. 
To learn more or find out if there’s an Air Quality Advisory in place for your location, check with your local clean air agency. Air Quality Advisories may be put in place, removed, or extended at any time.  
For Air Quality Advisories on Reservations in Washington, visit: https://www.epa.gov/farr/burn-bans-indian-reservations-id-or-and-wa

A closer look at some of the monitors in the state: 
 
As smoke moved north and west from Idaho and Oregon, Seattle saw a shift from Good to Moderate conditions Thursday continuing through Friday.    

 

Vancouver was closer to the sources of smoke and saw higher impacts with levels reaching Unhealthy at its peak before slowly improving back to Moderate levels late Friday morning.

As smoke made its way north and settled in at lower elevations, Enumclaw and other locations within the Cascade foothills saw levels reaching Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.

Weekend Outlook 

With hot and dry weather remaining in place, active fire behavior is expected the next few days. Except at the immediate coast, winds in the low levels will remain out of the east-southeast with south-southeast flow aloft. This will continue to transport smoke aloft into Washington through Sunday morning.

For Saturday in western Washington, air quality concerns continue with scattered pockets of Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups expected. Areas of greatest concern will be the western Columbia Gorge into the Vancouver metro area as well as the foothills of the central and southern Washington Cascades. Depending on smoke output from the region’s large fires, isolated instances of Unhealthy air quality are possible. East of the Cascades, air quality is expected to range from Good to Moderate. 

Eventually, westerly winds will push cleaner air onshore. This will be a gradual process, and widespread Moderate air quality will likely persist into Sunday night or early Monday for western Washington. Smoke impacts may worsen east of the Cascades Sunday through Monday morning with some locations seeing AQI rise into the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range, mainly across southern Washington. Northern Washington should remain Good to Moderate. Eventually, air quality is expected to improve statewide Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

We are still expecting isolated thunderstorms to develop over the Cascades this weekend. Any new lightning-induced starts may bring new local air quality issues. 

Smoke Update and Outlook

Smoke Situation  

While things have been relatively quiet on fires in Washington, recent warmer and drier weather has increased fire activity and smoke production around fires in Oregon and Idaho. 

Localized smoke from fires in Oregon and Idaho. Courtesy: College of DuPage

 

Light, offshore winds are expected through Saturday which may bring light/moderate amounts of smoke over southern and western Washington. Air quality is expected to be Moderate for much of western Washington with some portions of southwest Washington seeing periods of Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. New fire starts or an increase in smoke output from existing fires could lead to locally worse air quality. Smoke is expected to clear gradually this weekend. 

Air Quality Advisories are currently in place for the following counties: Clark, Cowlitz, Lewis, Skamania, and Wahkiakum. 

To learn more or find out if there’s an Air Quality Advisory in place for your location, check with your local clean air agency. Air Quality Advisories may be put in place or removed at any time.  

For Air Quality Advisories on Reservations in Washington, visit: https://www.epa.gov/farr/burn-bans-indian-reservations-id-or-and-wa 

 

Forecast Outlook 

Relief from the heat and the smoke will come in phases from west to east. The first phase begins Friday as the seasonably strong ridge overhead begins to weaken. This will allow cooler onshore flow to reach the immediate coast, but these effects will be slow to move inland.  

East-southeast winds will continue to transport smoke from fires in Oregon into Washington through early Saturday, but an approaching upper-level disturbance will continue to chip away at the ridge, further weakening it and pushing it to the east. This will allow temperatures west of the Cascades to begin to cool, and smoke impacts will begin to lessen. 

 

Fire weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center highlighting the potential for dry thunderstorms in the Cascades on Saturday

This system does come with concern for fire danger. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon through early Sunday in the Cascades. Although the smoke situation will be improving with increasing onshore flow, fuels will be very receptive to new lightning ignitions.  

Onshore flow will bring cooler but still above average temperatures to western Washington on Sunday. Central and eastern Washington will remain warm with air quality concerns lingering. A stronger belt of westerly winds will impact the state on Monday as a system passes to our north. This will further alleviate widespread wildfire smoke, but at the same time will elevate fire weather conditions east of the Cascades.