Bolt Creek Fire near Skykomish Threatens Unhealthy Air Quality for North Puget Sound

Emerging incident in Cascades, ongoing Goat Rocks Fire, and Oregon's Cedar Creek Fire spreading significant smoke in Washington

A new wildfire is emerging just north of Skykomish along Highway 2 in the Washington Cascades. With the Goat Rocks Fire experiencing significant growth yesterday, both HWY 2 and HWY 12 are closed near Steven's Pass and White Pass, respectively. Weather conditions through this morning will support rapid fire growth on all active fires in the Cascades, increasing smoke production and endangering the communities of Grotto and Packwood. 

Thick mid-level smoke from the Cedar Creek Fire in Oregon is being pushed northward by shifting mid-level winds, and will overspread western Washington from south to north today. This smoke is elevated above ground level and should not contribute significantly to further reductions in air quality, but will actually help keep temperatures down a few degrees this afternoon and limit the minimum RH values experienced in the Puget Lowlands. 

Air quality impacts will primarily be driven by the Goat Rocks Fire and the Bolt Creek Fire through today on the westside, with smoke from fires in Idaho and Montana driving the air quality degradation on the east side. Large areas of "Unhealthy" air quality are likely to develop across the state this afternoon, with the worst air quality being along HWY 2 and HWY 12, in Snohomish and Lewis counties, and in the southeastern quarter of Washington, including areas near Spokane southward to Walla Walla. 

Conditions will begin to improve for western Washington on Sunday, with Monday seeing a return of "Good" air quality for most areas west of the Cascade crest. Poor air quality will linger across eastern Washington into Monday, but will improve through the week.  

Wildland Fire Meteorologist Matthew Dehr

9/9/2022 East Wind Event Ongoing: Friday and Saturday See Peak Fire Danger

First critical fire weather event of 2022 for western Washington

Fire danger is peaking this weekend across most of Washington, with a critical East Wind event taking shape across the Pacific Northwest. After a week of high fire danger east of the Cascades, western Washington is experiencing widespread critical fire weather today, and conditions will remain critical through tomorrow evening. Relative humidity values across the state will drop into the 15-25% range, with sustained winds of 15-25mph common both east and west of the Cascades. The highest wind gusts will be in the Columbia Gorge and through the Cascade Passes, where isolated gusts of 40-50mph are possible. As active fires continue to burn and new fires emerge, heed local emergency official's orders about evacuations and remain vigilant! 

Active fires producing smoke for much of the state

A northwesterly wind brought smoke and hazardous air quality to the Methow Valley and Lake Chelan from the Chilliwack and Pasayten Complexes in the North Cascades. This morning, a shift in the winds from the northwest to the northeast have redirected smoke from these fires to the west side of the Cascades, with Whatcom and Skagit Counties seeing the most immediate impacts. As the East Wind event continues to unfold, smoke will work southward toward King County and the rest of the south Sound region. Smoke from fires in eastern Washington, Idaho, and Montana will drift toward the Columbia Basin and east slopes of the Cascades.

 

Air quality impacts expected for the Puget Sound region and eastern Washington

Conditions have improved from Hazardous to Moderate for the Methow Valley and Lake Chelan area this morning, and will continue remain steady for the next 24-48 hours. Air quality is currently Unhealthy for the Wenatchee Valley and along the Skagit River. Moderate air quality is observed over much of the Columbia Basin this morning, and will likely deteriorate slightly over the next 24-48 hours as smoke from fires in Idaho and Montana continues to stream westward. 

Air quality in the Puget Lowlands is generally good this morning, but signs of degradation are present in Whatcom and Skagit counties. Air quality will deteriorate across the west side of the state through this afternoon and tonight as smoke from the fires in the North Cascades continues to pour over the crest of the mountains. Any new fires that develop over the next 24 hours will impact air quality significantly, so it is important to continually monitor your local air quality and take precautions based on the figure below!

Air Quality Index
See full guidance for more info.

DNR Wildland Fire Meteorologist Matthew Dehr

9/7/2022 More smoke on the horizon

Yesterday saw minimal fire growth throughout the state and region with calmer winds and lower overnight temps.  As a result, less overnight smoke production occurred.  Monitors are mostly green across the state today, but some near-fire smoke effects are still being seen at Wenatchee Lake, NE Washington (e.g. Pend Oreille county) and in the Lewiston-Clarkston valley.  

The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for all counties east of the Cascades crest.  A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are occurring with a combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures which can contribute to extreme fire behavior.  It should cool off tomorrow a bit as a cold front moves through, but it will remain windy and we expect another round of heat this weekend.  Winds from the NW will prevail today and tomorrow, but a shift will occur on Friday, with predominant winds expected from the east.

Recent fire activity is shown in the map below, with considerable smoke expected to continue from the North Cascades (WA) and Wallowa Mountains (OR).  For specific wildfire information near you, see the Inciweb map.  We don't expect any smoke impacts in WA from the Wallowa Mountain fires for the next couple days, but they will probably affect SE WA over the weekend.  Smoke from the Cascades fires are expected to impact Western WA on Friday.  Fire activity near Lake Wenatchee has decreased, but prevailing winds will continue to push a little smoke into the greater Wenatchee region today and tomorrow.

If you are impacted by smoke in your area, you can reduce exposure by limiting outside activity, staying inside with cleaner indoor air, finding other clean-air spaces, or wearing an N95 mask.

Recent Fire Activity (9/7/2022)

9/1/2022 Statewide smoke update - More heat and smoke expected

Air quality has deteriorated the past few days in North and Central Washington, with especially active new fire development in the Cascades.  The Wenatchee region and Methow Valley have had the worst air quality lately, with fresh smoke pooling in valleys.  There is also fresh fire activity in NorthEast Washington, with visible smoke North of Spokane.  In general, it should be windy enough this weekend to prevent any long-term build-up of smoke, but smoke impacts will continue to be a problem.

PM2.5 Measurements at Maple Falls, Twisp, Leavenworth, and Wenatchee

Late Friday into Saturday will bring breezy winds, with possible mountain thunderstorms, and the potential for fire spread. Hot, dry conditions will set up ahead of the winds, with Friday set for near-record heat. Temperatures will cool a little over the weekend, but remain above normal.   The expected dynamic weather expected this weekend will give rise to dynamic smoke impacts.  Recently active fire locations are shown below:

Recent fire locations in and around Washington State

Smoke forecasts are not confident during these periods of dynamic weather and new emerging fire growth.  Looking at one member of the Dept. of Ecology HYSPLIT forecasts, we see a few key features that have reasonable confidence:

• Smoke in Central WA should mostly clear out on Friday, but Saturday will bring Moderate to Unhealthy smoke back to the Methow Valley and Wenatchee areas.  Winds should disperse any lingering smoke, but expect to keep smelling smoke on the following days.
• Smoke on Friday in SouthEast WA (e.g. Asotin, Garfield, Columbia, Walla Walla counties) is expected from the fires in the Blue Mountains, this should mostly clear out on Saturday though.
• Inland Western Washington will likely get some lingering smoke from the Cascade fires on Monday, pooling smoke in mountain valleys.  Winds should push that smoke back east though, and shouldn't last long.

HYSPLIT Forecast of Smoke for Labor Day Weekend

The 5-day forecasts available on the Smoke Blog map are automatically updated based on multiple smoke forecasts.  Expect changes in predictions as weather forecasts and new fire locations get ingested into nightly simulations.

You can find resources on how to protect yourself from smoke impacts on the Health Resources tab.

8/23/2022 How to find local smoke outlooks

For the summer wildfire smoke season, we're bringing back the "LOCAL SMOKE OUTLOOKS" tab for our readers to quickly and easily access the custom smoke forecasts prepared by Air Resource Advisors.

Air Resource Advisors are trained to be dispatched to an incident to assist with understanding and predicting smoke impacts on the public and fire personnel. They analyze, summarize, and communicate these impacts to incident teams, air quality regulators, and the public.

Notice the new tab along the top border of the blog content area and click on "LOCAL SMOKE OUTLOOKS" to access the forecasts. Outlooks are available in English and translated into Spanish shortly thereafter.

We're also excited to introduce another new feature to the WASmokeblog. Now, the Local Smoke Outlooks can also be accessed directly from the map. 

If you see a blue box on the map, that means a smoke outlook is available for that area. Click inside the blue box, then click "View the Smoke Outlook" for local information from Airfire.org.

Interested in smoke forecasts prepared for other states?
You can find the full set of smoke outlooks prepared by Air Resource Advisors at this link: https://outlooks.airfire.org/outlook

For more tips on using the map, read our 8/2/2022 post.

#SmokeReady  

#SmokeReadyTogether

8/19/2022 Weekend smoke outlook: A more active weather pattern

Current Situation

AQI values in the "Moderate" category have been established across much of eastern Washington since Wednesday, with AQI's reaching sustained "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" levels in the vicinity of Lake Wenatchee as the Irving Peak and White River fires continue to slowly burn downward in elevation. 

As we head into the weekend, a change in the weather pattern is on the way that should provide relief to most areas outside the Lake Wenatchee/Wenatchee Valley region. The culprit for the smoke impacts to Spokane and other areas of far eastern Washington was light north and northeasterly winds that developed Wednesday under strong high pressure conditions. Our typical westerly winds return today and will last through the weekend into early next week as a series of upper level systems work across the state. 

What does this mean for air quality and smoke intrusions in Washington?

Smoke from the Diamond Watch and Thor fires, burning most of this summer in a remote portion of northeastern Pend Orielle county, will likely be cleared out of Spokane and surrounding areas as stronger westerly and southwesterly winds spread over eastern Washington tonight through Saturday morning. This pattern lasts through the early part of next week before another ridge of high pressure builds back into the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. Similar to this past week, north and northeasterly winds will return to eastern Washington and allow more smoke from the Diamond Watch fire to settle into Spokane and the Columbia Basin on Wednesday and Thursday of next week. 

Smoke from the Irving Peak and White River fires will be influenced by the westerly winds spilling through the Cascade gaps through this weekend, resulting in smoke impacts being confined to Lake Wenatchee and down the Wenatchee Valley. Over the past 48-72 hours, the fire has burned downward in elevation, creating smoke below the nighttime inversion and allowing it to settle into the valleys surrounding the fire. Weather conditions over the weekend will be favorable to reduce the intensity of afternoon burning conditions, limiting smoke production, but with the fire now burning at lower elevations, smoke is more likely to hang around in the Lake Wenatchee and Wenatchee Valley through the weekend. I expect conditions to remain steady for the time being before another round of easterly upslope flow develops in the middle of next week to further trap smoke along the Cascade crest. 

Elsewhere through the weekend, emerging events such as the Wagner Road fire (now at 5500 acres in Whitman County) will continue to cause local drops in air quality, as is noted at Ritzville this afternoon. Thunderstorms this afternoon in the Okanagan and North Cascades will need to be monitored for potential new fire starts. 

The White River and Irving Peak fires had their most active periods of burning on Wednesday as relative humidity values plummeted below 20%, a response to weak easterly upslope flow that established in response to a strong thermal trough over the Cascades and high pressure in the Columbia Basin. This weekend, the Cascades will see a return to the typical westerly flow as a series of storm systems impact western Washington. After some possible showers and thunderstorms on Monday, eastern Washington will see a return to a pattern similar to what we saw Wednesday of this week, potentially starting another round of more active burn conditions. 

Photo of the White River Fire during the active burning period on Wednesday. Courtesy NWCC.

Matthew Dehr

Wildland Fire Meteorologist

Washington DNR 

8/18/2022 Spokane, Darrington, and Wenatchee smoke update

Smoke from the Irving Peak and White River wildfires (NW of Lake Wenatchee) drifted across the Cascades early this morning, with moderate impacts in Darrington and other inland locations in Snohomish county.  That smoke should clear out later today and winds are not expected to carry over any more smoke in the near future.  Residents near Cashmere, Wenatchee, Leavenworth, and Chelan will continue to see moderate to USG smoke impacts over the next few days, as westerly winds will prevail.

Meanwhile, the Diamond Watch wildfire (NE corner of WA) has been sending moderate smoke south into Pend Oreille and Spokane counties.  This may clear up a bit today but Spokane-area residents should expect another moderate smoke push tomorrow morning too.  On Saturday, winds should shift and push Diamond Watch smoke north instead.

At moderate AQI, some people can be especially sensitive to particle pollution and should take steps to protect their health (limit time outside and avoid strenuous outdoor activity). Sensitive groups should watch out for symptoms.

All of the active wildfires in our state are under 1,000 acres, so smoke impacts haven't gotten too bad.  However, there are several new emerging fires from recent lightning strikes.  Plus this weekend will be hot, dry, and gusty.  So, there is potential for new and active fires to grow considerably over the next couple days.   The main risk of new significant fires appears to be in north central Washington.

Don't get beat by the heat over the next few days in Central and Eastern WA!  Hydrate, find shade, and keep cool!

8/16/2022 Make your own filter fan

One easy and affordable way to make your own air cleaner at home is with a box fan and a furnace filter. These “filter fans” can filter out the small particles that are common in wildfire or wood smoke. Particle pollution can lead to a number of immediate and long-term health impacts such as trouble breathing, asthma attacks, and lung and heart disease. Particle pollution is especially dangerous for children, the elderly, and people with sensitive immune systems.

The Puget Sound Clean Air Agency measured air pollution levels in four homes using filter fans. In smaller rooms, with the windows and doors closed, we found up to a 90% reduction in air pollution (1). Other studies have found a similar reduction in air pollution during wildfire smoke events (2).

Photo credit: Adam Petrusky, PSCAA

Supplies and Assembly

• Box fan
• Note: Look for a model with the controls/cords on the top or bottom of the fan. Having controls or cords in the center of the fan makes it hard to put on the filter.
• 20x20x1 inch MERV-13 filter
• Note: FPR 10 and MPR 1900 rated filters are equivalent to MERV-13.
• Assembly: Tape the filter onto the back of the fan.

Important Tips While Using a Filter Fan

Testing by UL found no safety concerns with filter fans. Even so, it is important to follow these instructions:

• Follow the box fan manufacturer’s instructions, which can include: Don't leave children unattended when the fan is in use, don't use an extension cord, don’t use near water, and don't use a damaged or malfunctioning fan.
• If you are using your own fan, make sure it is 2012 or newer. Older models pose a fire risk and should not be used.
• Use the filter fan in the room you spend the most time in.
• Position the filter fan toward the middle of the room, away from walls, drapes, and dusty spaces.
• Close all windows and doors while filter fan is in use. The filter fan won’t be as effective if pollution from outside is coming into the room. However, if it is too hot inside, you can open a window.
• Running the filter fan in a window will result in reduced filtration and make the filter get dirty faster.
• It takes at least 10-15 minutes to clean a small room (15’x15’).
• The filter fan cannot clean an entire large room. If you are in a large room, place the filter fan near you so that it keeps the air around you clean.
• Replace filters after 3 months of use or when they look dirty.

References

1. https://www.pscleanair.gov/525/DIY-Air-Filter
2. https://aaqr.org/articles/aaqr-21-03-tn-0046

8/15/2022 White River fire sending smoke to Wenatchee region

The White River Fire on Wenatchee Ridge, northwest of Lake Wenatchee, has been sending smoke to Leavenworth, Cashmere, and Wenatchee today. Residents in the area should expect continued intermittent smoke throughout the next few days.  Recreationists are advised to stay away from the Wenatchee Ridge area where the White River and Irving Peak Fires are burning. 

See active Chelan emergency info here.  

The White River (516 acres) and Irving Peak (160 acres) fires were ignited by lightning on Friday.  InciWeb provided the following update today:

"Crews on the White River Fire continue to assess and prepare structure protection along Sears Creek Road (FS 6404) and White River Road. Dozers will be working on spur roads off the FS 6404 Road to open and improve access to the fire area. Two aircraft are currently assigned to the incident while other initial attack aircraft are assisting."

"Irving peak fire gained more resources; it is staffed with multiple engines, hand crews, and heavy equipment. Crews focus on scouting potential control lines and begin structure protection along Little Wenatchee Road (FS Road 6500)."

"A Type 2 Incident Management Team has been ordered to manage the White River and Irving Peak Fires."

"Chelan County has issued a Level 3 evacuation (Go Now) for Sears Creek Road, White River Road is at a Level 2 (Be Prepared), and Little Wenatchee Road is at a Level 1 (Stay Alert)."

Fire.Airnow.Gov image of smoke and air quality on Monday afternoon.

8/11/2022 Be ready to protect yourself before the smoke hits (and a forecast on that)

It’s always best to be prepared to protect yourself from wildfire smoke—which seems hard to think about with the quiet season we are having so far. But the gift of a slow start to fire season is more time to buy supplies you may need, which typically sell out once the smoke hits.

Reduce your exposure to wildfire smoke by following these steps:

• Limit outdoor physical activity and take it easy inside.
• Keep indoor air cleaner by:
• Closing windows and doors, unless it is too hot to maintain safe temperatures.
• Not adding to indoor air pollution, such as cigarette smoking or burning candles.
• Filtering indoor air through an HVAC system, HEPA portable air cleaner, or a DIY box fan filter.
• There are technical details involved with all of these options and they
  require supplies, so do your homework.
• Filtering indoor air is the best way to keep you and your family safe.
• You will hear more about how to build a DIY box fan filter from our expert soon.
• Setting air conditioners to re-circulate.
• Seek clean air elsewhere, if the air quality remains poor and it is not possible to keep the air in your home clean or cool.
• If you must be outside, wear a properly fitted, NIOSH-approved particulate respirator, such as an N95 mask.

For more information see the Health Information Tab or visit WA DOH’s Smoke from Fires webpage.

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Bonus smoke forecast from our meteorologist: 

Well over 1,000 lightning strikes have been detected in Washington over the past 48 hours, and with dry and breezy conditions returning this weekend, an uptick in new lightning fires is expected both in the Olympics and the Cascades. Weather conditions west of the Cascades are not conducive to fast fire growth through the weekend, but the same cannot be said for areas east of the Cascades. A new fire 5-10 miles west of Lake Wenatchee was noted this morning after storms exited the region, and there is concern that this fire could grow as the weather becomes drier and breezier this weekend. Smoke from the fire is currently visible on satellite moving north-northwest, but winds are expected to shift over the next 24-48 hours and begin blowing the smoke to the east. At this time, smoke settling in the Puget Lowlands looks unlikely, but areas near Chelan, Wenatchee, and Omak need to monitor fire developments through the weekend. As weather conditions become more conducive to fire growth over the next week, we will be monitoring for those potential smoke impacts and updating this blog as more information becomes available.