The Schneider Springs Fire: A closer look

A quick glance at the fire and smoke map at the top of this page reveals that the Yakima region is currently experiencing some of the worst air quality in the state. Since the start of the Schneider Springs Fire on August 3, there have only been six days of good air quality in Yakima County. Compared to the rest of the state since the start of the Schneider Springs Fire, Yakima County has experienced the most days in AQI categories other than good.

 

The animated plot below visualizes the daily PM2.5 values from both regulatory monitors (outlined solid circles) and low-cost sensors (transparent circles, no outline) in Yakima County since the fire began—the size of the circle is related to the daily PM2.5 concentration. Bigger circles = more smoke.

 

How does the air quality compare to the terrible air quality of 2020 as well as previous years? The good news is that there haven’t been any days of hazardous air quality this year. So far this summer looks comparable to the 2018 wildfire season in Yakima County.

 

Unfortunately, the fire is still active, and it is likely that smoke will continue to impact Yakima County. Check out the Smoke Outlooks tab for daily updates, and check out these tips from DOH about protecting your indoor air quality from the smoke outside.

Labor day weekend and beyond: mostly 'all clear' but not everywhere.

We smoke forecasters don't enjoy raining on everyone's parties. This Labor day weekend, we mostly don't have to. 

Thanks to a mixture of clouds, drizzle, normal to just above normal temperatures and wind (hm... sounds like nature is raining on everyone), smoke impacts will be mostly close to the fires. Other areas can expect mostly Good air.  Chances of new fires and fire growth are mostly low. 

But before you pop the champagne cork, see the average of all UW model predictions for 24-hr rain totals, ending 5PM Sunday. Not a lot of rain and it doesn't hit the largest fires. With a dry Monday and Tuesday on tap, that may have to wait until mid week. 

Southern WA Cascades

Smoke from the Schneider Springs fire will continue to affect much of Yakima county through the weekend. The Local Smoke Outlooks tab of this blog has daily updates for areas closer to this fire. Models show a little smoke spilling over into the western foothills of Lewis and Pierce Counties by Monday and Tuesday. Not expecting anything worse than Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups closer to the Cascades of western WA, and that too wont linger much beyond Tuesday. 

Southwest WA including the Vancouver area

By Tuesday, models are suggesting that some Oregon smoke could be transported to the Portland- Vancouver area, potentially leading to air quality that is Moderate or Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. This is not expected to be a prolonged, high-impact event as a wind shift is expected by Wednesday, pushing the smoke further east. Please keep watching the forecast above and plan accordingly. 

Mostly, plan on having a 

Where's the fire? Check the "Local Smoke Outlooks" tab

We know things have been looking a little quiet here on the Washington Smoke Blog in recent days as the fire impacts have become more localized.

Just remember that Air Resource Advisors for the Schneider Springs Fire near Naches and the Twenty-Five Mile Fire near Manson are still providing daily forecasts and analysis for communities near those fires. We've also added temporary air quality monitors in Brewster, Cashmere and Cle Elum to keep a close eye on smoke impacts in those communities. You can find those reports under the "Local Smoke Outlooks" tab. 

And, if broader impacts creep back into the forecast, we'll update the main blog and keep you in the loop. 

Yakima area still smoky but most places in Washington breathing clean air

Most fires in Central and Eastern Washington have seen little growth over the past few days, as the weather has been more mild.  A weather system tracking through the region today will bring more rain over Northeast Washington but it will warm up a bit on Sunday.  Overall air quality in the state has been good with no surprises expected anytime soon.  

However, the Schneider Springs fire in Yakima county has burned 75,000 acres this summer and is still going.  Crews are working hard to contain this fire but it is still active and smoke is a persistent concern for downwind communities.  Westerly wind has generally been pushing smoke east, into the valleys, and as far as the Tri-Cities.  A shift in wind on Saturday will change this pattern for a little while, with smoke expected to linger in the mountains. Expect wind patterns to go back to normal on Sunday.  Check the local smoke outlooks for daily forecasts.

Schneider Springs Fire hotspots (orange) and smoke drifting into Yakima (Friday morning) 

Other active fires in the state have seen low fire activity and little growth, including the Summit Trail fire on the Colville Reservation and the TwentyFive Mile fire near Lake Chelan.  These fires are still producing some minimal smoke which could impact nearby communities intermittently.

Recent fire detects in Washington (8/27/2021) 

Rain is coming, right onto many of our large fires.

This UW ensemble precipitation
forecast map shows at least light rain
predicted over much of Washington,
notably skirting the Columbia Basin. 

In most of Washington, any sighs over a cool wet weekend will fill your lungs with clean air.

A breezy weather pattern has started to move across the state. It’s bringing fresh Pacific air and deflecting smoky air from fire complexes in southeastern BC and southern Oregon and northern California away from Washington.

That leaves no smoke worries west of the Cascades, but fires on the range’s east slope and in the Okanogan Highlands can still pack a smoky punch locally.

The Washington Department of Ecology will extend an Air Quality Alert (AQA) for the Methow and Okanogan River Valleys, the Lake Chelan area and Yakima County until 10 a.m. Monday. Particulate matter (PM2.5) levels could reach Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups levels or Unhealthy levels in those areas.

The band of light precipitation will fall mostly in north central parts of Washington, as shown by the ensemble mean of all models. The AQA is being extended despite the rain because fires are expected to continue smoldering for a while. There is not enough rain to extinguish them altogether.

A Super Scooper firefighting plane
flies through evening haze Thursday
over Ecology's Union Gap office.
(Photo: Eiko Urmos-Berry)

The Schneider Creek fire that’s producing scenes like the photo here from Ecology’s Union Gap office last night may miss out on much of the rain.

Cooler temperatures, though, will help fire crews, regardless of rainfall.

The weather package also includes thunderstorms and wind gusts. While those can start or fan wildfires, the overall benefit of cooler air and rain should help fire crews make good progress over the weekend. Sunday should be breezy and drier, with more wet weather forecast to follow early next week.

We’re posting updated local smoke forecasts for Washington’s major fires on this blog’s Local Smoke Outlooks tab. And, our maps show the most current PM 2.5 monitoring information.

The Northwest pattern is back. Except near fires, we’re clear of regional smoke.

 This week is a great time to appreciate the classics, at least when it comes to Pacific Northwest weather patterns. 

End of the week rain outlook for
Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho.

A low pressure system arrived late Monday from the North Pacific, bringing some rain showers to some of the fires burning in northern Washington. The system is finishing its pass over the region. A similar batch of rain, clouds and cooler temperatures should arrive late Friday. Not a ton of rain, so don’t pin too many hopes on it.

 In the meantime, we’ll have two days of high pressure weather, bringing light winds and warmer temperatures, but at seasonal levels.

 This between-storms weather will mean that smoke from fires on the east Cascade slopes and northeastern high country will affect nearby areas intermittently. The low pressure system’s cooler air and precipitation should dampen fire intensity, and give fire crews a boost in their containment efforts. Higher winds are part of the low pressure package, though, with their mixed blessing. The winds bring in fresh air, but fan fires, too.

A weather satellite photo of Washington this morning,
with smoke plumes visible from fires in
Okanogan, Chelan and Yakima counties. 

 With localized smoke remaining a concern, the Department of Ecology issued an Air Quality Alert for Okanogan, Ferry, Chelan, and Yakima counties until further notice.

 As for the classics, more low pressure systems may be on the way, interspersed with calm, warmer high pressure. A pattern like that confines smoke to communities around fires, often extending several dozen miles downwind, during the calmer phases.

 When the light summer storms pass by they bring at least cooler temperatures, if not precipitation. On a cloudy or rainy Washington weekend, that’s still a breath of fresh air.

 Please check this blog’s Local Smoke Outlooks tab for more about smoke conditions around Washington’s areas with major wildfires.

We’ll get a brief taste of fall weather. It could help dampen wildfires, but may bring smoke from BC.

Hope mixes with uncertainty when it comes to forecasting this week’s wildfire smoke.

Some cooler weather tinged with rain over the next two days would likely make fire crews smile if the package didn’t include some stiff wind gusts. 

A low pressure system will swing by from the North Pacific pushing a cold front tonight and tomorrow that will cut across Washington and displace hot dry air from a high pressure system centered over the Great Basin. But, later in the week, after this low passes, the weak high pressure system will spread back over Washington.

Smoke under clouds: This webcam picture from a resort near Winthrop shows today's north central Washington smoke haze, under an overcast of regular clouds.

Some light rain will help throughout the state, with relief especially welcome along the east slopes of the Cascades and northeastern counties. Rain will also pass over British Columbia, which may help with the fires whose smoke sank onto much of Washington Friday and Saturday.

The other side of this coin is wind. Gusts could reach 40 miles per hour, which will likely fan fires and speed their spread. The wind direction will shift from west to north. That could push a lot of the BC smoke our way. It’s unclear how much smoke will be generated and mixed down to the surface. Our forecasting models disagree so far, but we hope to bring that into better focus over the next two days.

A NASA satellite view of Washington from late this morning. Cooling clouds blanket northern and coastal areas. Smoke plumes can be seen near Yakima and Clarkston.

We’ve issued an Air Quality Alert for Okanogan, Ferry, Douglas, Stevens, Pend Oreille, Chelan, Kittitas, and Yakima counties through 10 a.m. Wednesday due to smoke from local fires and the uncertain amount of BC smoke that will move south tomorrow.

Western Washington will have plenty of fresh coastal air for at least another day. There will be smoke overhead starting Tuesday, with potential smoke impacts at high elevations on Wednesday. 

Be sure to open the “local smoke outlooks” tab on this blog for specific warnings and information about Washington fires.

Relief in western WA, not so fast for eastern WA

Overhead smoke took the edge off the heat yesterday and will do so again this weekend. 

"Aw c'mon Ranil, that's of little consolation! When will the smoke clear?"

Today and tomorrow. But...

Eastern WA

Strong west winds will help reduce the smoke this evening through Sunday, but also raise the risk of new fires. So while most areas will see some improvement, not too many communities will see Good air for long. Existing fires are projected to keep puffing out smoke. Conditions are expected to worsen mid-week as another ridge builds. Please see the 5-day forecast map above.

Western WA

Ground level smoke will continue to clear today, although elevated smoke from CA fires will flex its muscle as it sails (mostly) overhead, giving us pretty sunsets. Expect a smoke-free western WA for a few days at least. Got to keep an eye on possible east winds mid-week, which can transport smoke from across the Cascades. 

Here's a comparison of fine particle pollution (aka PM_2.5) levels across the state so far this season. Who had it best/ worst? You decide.

Wildfire Smoke and Heat: A Double Whammy

When there is smoke, there is often heat. Combined, heat and smoke can become especially dangerous. How can I protect myself from both?

Staying inside and keeping doors and windows closed will keep smoky air out of our homes, but it can be hard to manage indoor temperatures while doing so. If it’s hot indoors and you don’t have air conditioning, these steps can help you stay cooler inside during poor air quality:

• Reduce the heat indoors: close curtains or shades during the day, use your stove and oven less.
• Do not rely on a fan as your only cooling source. While electric fans might provide some comfort, they won’t prevent heat-related illness when temperatures are very hot.
• Cool off by taking a cool bath or shower. Use ice packs or put your feet in cool water.
• Stay hydrated, especially with water. Avoid sugary or alcoholic drinks—these can be dehydrating.
• Go to an indoor place that is cooler—even if only for a few hours. Dial 2-1-1 or use the statewide online resource to find cooling centers near you. Language assistance is available.
• If you plan on visiting a cooling center or staying with friends and family to get a break from the heat, make sure to follow local COVID-19 indoor gathering requirements and respect the rules of the room when it comes to masks.
• Track the air quality and open your windows when the air quality improves and outdoor temperatures are cooler than inside.
• If it’s still too hot and the outside air quality is poor: open windows when outdoor temperatures are cooler than inside and take steps to filter indoor air. 

 As always, for wildfire smoke:

• Reduce outdoor physical activity and take it easy inside.
• Set air conditioners to re-circulate.
• Improve filtration of indoor air: upgrade your home HVAC system filtration to a MERV 13 filter (or the best your system can handle), buy a HEPA portable air cleaner, or build a DIY box fan filter.
• There are technical details involved with all of these options. See our previous post.
• Don’t add to air pollution. Avoid burning candles or incense, smoking, diffusing essential oils, broiling or frying foods, and vacuuming (unless your vacuum has a HEPA filter).
• Seek clean air elsewhere, if the air quality remains poor and it is not possible to keep the air in your home clean or cool.

For more information see the Health Information Tab or visit WA DOH’s Smoke from Fires webpage.

Western WA update: Yikes! … but hang on,… this too shall pass…

 We awoke to see Washington was in a smoke bath, and western WA was not left out this time.

Yesterday, smoke from British Colombia fires started pushing into the Puget Sound at the ground. And, yesterday and overnight, there was continued strong smoke production from fires in Central Washington, Oregon, and California. And, we had a very complex wind pattern, with very different flow at different altitudes. Smoke was heading south from Central Washington, and swirling clockwise back up to the Puget Sound. This overall mess brought much of the Puget Sound into UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS, which is where we are this morning. 

Looking ahead… there’s still looks to be a fair amount of smoke up above us (see the vertical profile plot below, the dark grey above about 1000 m). And, it’s likely we’ll get some of it mixing down today. So, in the Puget Sound, we're expecting similar or worse smoke at the ground through most of today. Some places could reach UNHEALTHY, but it's really tough to know precisely how much smoke is up there.

But, the westerlies should start picking up tonight, and much of this will move to the east overnight. By Saturday morning, most of the Puget Sound should improve and be back to MODERATE or GOOD air quality. We may see some California smoke pass overhead on Saturday and Sunday... but the Puget Sound should be able to breathe easy again...