'nuff said about western WA, although the satellite map overlaid with fine particle pollution data is worth a glance. Green circles = Good air.
Judging by monitor readings, much of the smoke over parts of eastern WA is staying overhead and not mixing down to ground level. A strong-ish push of marine air since last evening has scoured out a lot of the smoke and will "cool" temperatures into the mid 80's/ low 90's today. Welcome relief... for now.
But these winds are also raising the stakes in the fire danger game. There is a small risk of dry thunderstorms on Saturday night. For Sunday and later, expect more warming and reduced smoke dispersion.
There is an Air Quality Alert in effect covering the areas below.
North central WA
Fires burning in the Methow valley and on the Colville Reservation are puffing a lot of smoke, but the Red Apple fire west of Wenatchee is not. Models suggest most of this smoke will not accumulate until Sunday or later, except of course right by the fires.
The wildcard however is new fires.
Southeastern WA
The Lick Creek fire in Asotin County is expected to continue emitting smoke, but again, the build-up of smoke will mostly be confined to the vicinity of the fires until late in the weekend. Smoke from the Bootleg fire in southern Oregon will also deal a glancing blow to this area under southwesterly winds. The Dept of Ecology's 5-day smoke forecast (which also has clickable pop-ups for each area), shows the air degrading to USG on occasion.
Note: This outlook was produced through the support of the incident management team assigned to the Lick Creek fire to help inform nearby communities of smoke impacts
Many residents of Central and Eastern Washington have been getting impacted by new and existing fires in the region, with the worst smoke impacts occurring in the cooler hours. The air has been getting a little better today as the smoke stays mostly aloft, but it will stick around with more smoke to be generated this week.
Nespelem (Colville Reservation): The Chuweah Creek fire and other lightning ignitions in the area started yesterday in timber, grass, and brush. Information is limited but some estimates show over 12,000 acres have burned in the area, with 3 homes lost. Evacuations are in effect and structures are still threatened. Thick plumes can be seen traveling south today in the GOES imagery, with sensors reporting USG to Unhealthy air in the Grand Coulee area. Winds will likely push smoke east over the next few days, and fire growth is expected.
Asotin: The Lick Creek fire grew nearly 9,000 acres yesterday and has burned over 55,000 acres in grass and brush since it started on July 7. Crews are working hard to manage the fire. A lot of the smoke will continue to move south, but residents in Clarkston and Asotin will continue to experience USG air intermittently throughout the week.
Mazama (NW of Methow): The Varden and Cedar Creek fires grew 400 acres yesterday and have burned almost 1,000 acres in timber. The Methow Valley has had Moderate to USG air and this will likely continue throughout the week, depending on fire activity.
N. of Yakima: The Burbank fire grew 6,000 acres yesterday in grass and brush and has burned 13,000 acres since July 10. Smoke has caused intermittent Moderate air in the area. Good news though, evacuations have been cancelled as the fire crews have made good progress and secured containment lines along I-82.
Canadian smoke has also been impacting residents around Oroville, as over 300 fires burn in B.C. Expected winds this week should clear out the current Unhealthy air, but nighttime stability will allow intermittent smoke impacts in the area throughout the week.
Seattle and the rest of Western Washington should be clear of smoke for the week, with perhaps some intermittent Moderate air.
A fire weather watch is in effect for Central and Eastern Washington from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Gusty winds and low relative humidity will cause fires to spread more easily. A cold front should move through Thursday and increase relative humidity, but winds will still be a concern for fire growth. Looks like it's going to be more ups and downs with the weather! Please use caution when recreating or working near dry vegetation, as fire can ignite and spread easily in these conditions.
Update 2 (7/13/21): New large fire "Chuweah Creek" north of Coulee Dam, near Nespelem on the Colville Reservation.
Update since posting*: The Dry Gulch Fire has been renamed Lick Creek.
Wildfire season has arrived in the Pacific Northwest and we
have a few fires of note in Washington. The largest is the Dry Gulch
fire in the SE corner of the state. Much of the smoke from this fire is
traveling east today and into Idaho but that was not the case a couple of days
ago when monitors from Dayton to Clarkston and surrounding areas registered smoky
conditions. Dry Gulch has a Type 1 incident management team assigned meaning it’s
recognized as a complex wildfire. We expect a specialist called an Air Resource
Advisor to arrive later in the week to provide some extra focus on air quality
forecasting for the vicinity. The Green Ridge fire is also burning in
the area. Though not in Washington, the Snake River Complex in Idaho is
nearby and could cause smoke issues in Washington depending on wind
direction.
Dry Gulch. IMT1. 2 mi SW of Asotin, WA. Start 7/7.
Full Suppression. Cause: Lightning. 46,352 acres. (+8,129) 20% containment.
Active fire behavior. Grass and brush. Structures threatened. Evacuations in
effect. Road, trail and area closures. Details on Dry Gulch available here: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7615/
Green Ridge. IMT2. 30 mi E of Walla Walla, WA. Start
7/7. Full Suppression. Cause: Lightning. 175 acres (+32). 0% containment.
Active fire behavior. Timber and grass. Road, trail and area closures. Details
on Green Ridge available here: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7628/
Details on Snake River Complex available here: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7636/
Varden. 5 mi southwest of Mazama, WA. Start 7/11.
Monitor/Confine/Full Suppression. Cause: Lightning. 700 acres. 0% contained.
Moderate fire behavior. Timber.
Cedar Creek. 5 mi southwest of Mazama, WA. Start 7/8. Full Suppression. Cause: Lightning. 75 acres. 0% contained. Moderate fire behavior. Timber.
Above: Map showing wildfires in the vicinity of Mazama, WA on 7/12/2021. Bright red spots show where significant heat has been detected by satellite in the last 12 hours.
And there is one more fire in Washington that is causing some trouble. The Burbank fire near Yakima and Selah is impacting travel on I-82. The fire seems to be burning mostly in light brush and grass fuels so is not putting out large amounts of smoke.
Burbank. 8 mi northeast of Yakima, WA. Start 7/10.
Full Suppression. Cause: Unknown. 6,000 acres. 10% contained. Extreme fire
behavior. Grass and brush. Structures threatened. Evacuations in effect. Road,
trail and area closures. Details on Burbank available here: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7650/
Above: Map showing the location of the Burbank fire on 7/12/2021.
Bright red spots show where significant heat has been detected by satellite in
the last 12 hours.
So that concludes the summary of significant wildfires in Washington as of today. There are also wildfires all around us from British Columbia, to Oregon, to Idaho but for now at least, most of the smoke from these fires is staying away with the exception of a little high elevation haze visible on the west side of the state, and some haze plus low levels of smoke at the surface in NE Washington.
The best way to help our firefighters this year? Be careful
out there so we can keep human caused fires to a minimum!
Of smoke, that is.
Here is yesterday's daily average estimated fine particle pollution map. "Estimated" because it is a satellite- derived product. Satellites can't decipher the height at which smoke is present; they only see all the vertically integrated smoke in the atmosphere. Various algorithms are used to estimate how much of this is present at ground level. Without reading too much into the absolute numbers, we can see where the smoke is coming from and going to.
Give a little
The fires near Asotin (Silcott, Dry Gulch and Lick Creek) are problematic for nearby WA and ID communities (read: export). We expect Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups air in the area for the next few days.
Take a little
Some smoke from wildfires in southern British Columbia is drifting over the north central part of the state (read: import). While most of it will remain aloft for now, some splotches of Moderate air can't be ruled out this afternoon. Smoke from southern Oregon fires will also fly over the south central and southeastern part of the state tomorrow. Enjoy the pretty sunsets.
Overall synopsis
No other major smoke concerns for now thanks to favorable winds, but those happy-go-lucky days are numbered because new fires are an ongoing concern (see the Red Flag warning). Please do your part to prevent fires.
Satellite imagery and ground- based fine particle pollution monitoring data show that smoke from the Lytton fire in British Columbia and the Lava Fire in northern California is mostly overhead right now. Gray polygons are smoke plumes (darker gray = denser smoke) and the circles/ squares are monitors measuring Good (and some Moderate) air quality.
Forecast models are showing that some of this smoke will make it down to the surface in eastern WA later today. This is also true for the higher terrain of the Cascades. However we're not expecting anything worse than Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. Please continue to follow the five-day smoke forecast.
We're expecting winds to shift July 4-5, which should improve air quality statewide... if we can avoid any new fires. Local fireworks shows could result in levels as high as Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups near the demonstrations.
Puget Sound lowlands forecast
We do not expect smoke to reach the ground in most of western WA, so air quality should be mostly Good to Moderate. A few pretty sunsets are possible.
Be Ready to Protect Your Health
Now that wildfires are here, it’s time to be prepared to protect ourselves from the smoke that comes along with them. Stock up on necessary supplies, like MERV 13 filters for DIY box fan filters or upgrading your HVAC system—they fly off the shelf when the smoke gets bad. For more information check out the health tab or visit WA DOH’s Smoke from Fires webpage.
And lastly, a task for everyone
Say what?
First, there is no major infusion of wildfire smoke into Western WA. Satellite imagery shows hardly a cloud or wisp of smoke over the last 3 days. However several fine particle pollution monitors have been showing air in the Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range.
So whodunit?
The ridge of high pressure over the state giving us this extreme heat is also responsible for forcing air downward and trapping pollutants within a shallow layer. This is known as a subsidence inversion. Since winds are relatively light, all the pollution generated by human activities tends to accumulate over time. But that's not all.
Trees also emit organic gases such as terpenes and isoprene, more so on hot days. These pollutants of biogenic origin undergo various complex chemical reactions in the atmosphere, giving rise to small particles known as Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA). "Secondary" because the aerosols are not released directly from sources but formed as a result of subsequent physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere. The diurnal nature of the elevated pollution levels over the last few days are consistent with how we expect biogenic SOA to behave. A WSU air quality model is showing the same thing.
Skip the tech talk. When will it go away?
Starting tomorrow.
As the thermal trough shifts inland and reduces western WA temperatures somewhat, biogenic emissions reduce and so does SOA formation. So we expect fine particle pollution levels to be around the Good/ Moderate level from tomorrow onward if there are no new fires. Please see the forecast map above. Ozone formation will also relax a bit. [Side note: please do your part to prevent fires during this time of extreme fire risk. There are Red Flag Warnings about this].
What about eastern WA?
A 20,000 acre brushfire near the town of Lind is causing quite a bit of smoke locally. Winds are initially shifting the plumes westward, before driving it toward the Spokane area starting Wednesday. If the fire is still burning, that is. Moderate air is expected, with worse conditions closer to the fire.
