Lick Creek Smoke Outlook - July 15, 2021

 Note: This outlook was produced through the support of the incident management team assigned to the Lick Creek fire to help inform nearby communities of smoke impacts

Lick Creek Smoke Outlook - July 14, 2021

Note: This outlook was produced through the support of the incident management team assigned to the Lick Creek fire to help inform nearby communities of smoke impacts

New and continued fire growth affecting air quality

Many residents of Central and Eastern Washington have been getting impacted by new and existing fires in the region, with the worst smoke impacts occurring in the cooler hours.  The air has been getting a little better today as the smoke stays mostly aloft, but it will stick around with more smoke to be generated this week.

Nespelem (Colville Reservation):  The Chuweah Creek fire and other lightning ignitions in the area started yesterday in timber, grass, and brush.  Information is limited but some estimates show over 12,000 acres have burned in the area, with 3 homes lost.  Evacuations are in effect and structures are still threatened.  Thick plumes can be seen traveling south today in the GOES imagery, with sensors reporting USG to Unhealthy air in the Grand Coulee area.  Winds will likely push smoke east over the next few days, and fire growth is expected.

Asotin:  The Lick Creek fire grew nearly 9,000 acres yesterday and has burned over 55,000 acres in grass and brush since it started on July 7.  Crews are working hard to manage the fire.  A lot of the smoke will continue to move south, but residents in Clarkston and Asotin will continue to experience USG air intermittently throughout the week.

Mazama (NW of Methow): The Varden and Cedar Creek fires grew 400 acres yesterday and have burned almost 1,000 acres in timber.  The Methow Valley has had Moderate to USG air and this will likely continue throughout the week, depending on fire activity. 

N. of Yakima: The Burbank fire grew 6,000 acres yesterday in grass and brush and has burned 13,000 acres since July 10.  Smoke has caused intermittent Moderate air in the area.  Good news though, evacuations have been cancelled as the fire crews have made good progress and secured containment lines along I-82.   

Canadian smoke has also been impacting residents around Oroville, as over 300 fires burn in B.C. Expected winds this week should clear out the current Unhealthy air, but nighttime stability will allow intermittent smoke impacts in the area throughout the week.

Seattle and the rest of Western Washington should be clear of smoke for the week, with perhaps some intermittent Moderate air.

A fire weather watch is in effect for Central and Eastern Washington from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Gusty winds and low relative humidity will cause fires to spread more easily.  A cold front should move through Thursday and increase relative humidity, but winds will still be a concern for fire growth.  Looks like it's going to be more ups and downs with the weather!  Please use caution when recreating or working near dry vegetation, as fire can ignite and spread easily in these conditions. 

 

07/12/2021 Wildfires in and Around Washington

Update 2 (7/13/21): New large fire "Chuweah Creek" north of Coulee Dam, near Nespelem on the Colville Reservation.

Update since posting*: The Dry Gulch Fire has been renamed Lick Creek.

Wildfire season has arrived in the Pacific Northwest and we have a few fires of note in Washington. The largest is the Dry Gulch fire in the SE corner of the state. Much of the smoke from this fire is traveling east today and into Idaho but that was not the case a couple of days ago when monitors from Dayton to Clarkston and surrounding areas registered smoky conditions. Dry Gulch has a Type 1 incident management team assigned meaning it’s recognized as a complex wildfire. We expect a specialist called an Air Resource Advisor to arrive later in the week to provide some extra focus on air quality forecasting for the vicinity. The Green Ridge fire is also burning in the area. Though not in Washington, the Snake River Complex in Idaho is nearby and could cause smoke issues in Washington depending on wind direction.

Dry Gulch. IMT1. 2 mi SW of Asotin, WA. Start 7/7. Full Suppression. Cause: Lightning. 46,352 acres. (+8,129) 20% containment. Active fire behavior. Grass and brush. Structures threatened. Evacuations in effect. Road, trail and area closures. Details on Dry Gulch  available here: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7615/

Green Ridge. IMT2. 30 mi E of Walla Walla, WA. Start 7/7. Full Suppression. Cause: Lightning. 175 acres (+32). 0% containment. Active fire behavior. Timber and grass. Road, trail and area closures. Details on Green Ridge available here: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7628/

Details on Snake River Complex available here: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7636/

Above: Map showing wildfires in the vicinity of SE Washington for 7/12/2021. Bright red spots show where significant heat has been detected by satellite in the last 12 hours.

 In addition, there are two new fires in Washington that are not very large at the moment although they are contributing smoke to the Methow Valley area from Mazama to Brewster and over to Omak. The Varden fire is close enough to the road that the State Dept. of Transportation has closed Hwy 20. Got Facebook? The Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest Facebook page is a great source for local fire information. https://www.facebook.com/OkaWenNF/

Varden. 5 mi southwest of Mazama, WA. Start 7/11. Monitor/Confine/Full Suppression. Cause: Lightning. 700 acres. 0% contained. Moderate fire behavior. Timber.

Cedar Creek. 5 mi southwest of Mazama, WA. Start 7/8. Full Suppression. Cause: Lightning. 75 acres. 0% contained. Moderate fire behavior. Timber.

Above: Map showing wildfires in the vicinity of Mazama, WA on 7/12/2021. Bright red spots show where significant heat has been detected by satellite in the last 12 hours.

And there is one more fire in Washington that is causing some trouble. The Burbank fire near Yakima and Selah is impacting travel on I-82. The fire seems to be burning mostly in light brush and grass fuels so is not putting out large amounts of smoke.

Burbank. 8 mi northeast of Yakima, WA. Start 7/10. Full Suppression. Cause: Unknown. 6,000 acres. 10% contained. Extreme fire behavior. Grass and brush. Structures threatened. Evacuations in effect. Road, trail and area closures. Details on Burbank available here: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7650/

 

Above: Map showing the location of the Burbank fire on 7/12/2021. Bright red spots show where significant heat has been detected by satellite in the last 12 hours.

So that concludes the summary of significant wildfires in Washington as of today. There are also wildfires all around us from British Columbia, to Oregon, to Idaho but for now at least, most of the smoke from these fires is staying away with the exception of a little high elevation haze visible on the west side of the state, and some haze plus low levels of smoke at the surface in NE Washington.

The best way to help our firefighters this year? Be careful out there so we can keep human caused fires to a minimum!

Washington is in the import-export business

Of smoke, that is. 

Here is yesterday's daily average estimated fine particle pollution map. "Estimated" because it is a satellite- derived product. Satellites can't decipher the height at which smoke is present; they only see all the vertically integrated smoke in the atmosphere. Various algorithms are used to estimate how much of this is present at ground level. Without reading too much into the absolute numbers, we can see where the smoke is coming from and going to. 

Give a little

The fires near Asotin (Silcott, Dry Gulch and Lick Creek) are problematic for nearby WA and ID communities (read: export). We expect Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups air in the area for the next few days. 

Take a little

Some smoke from wildfires in southern British Columbia is drifting over the north central part of the state (read: import). While most of it will remain aloft for now, some splotches of Moderate air can't be ruled out this afternoon. Smoke from southern Oregon fires will also fly over the south central and southeastern part of the state tomorrow. Enjoy the pretty sunsets.

Overall synopsis

No other major smoke concerns for now thanks to favorable winds, but those happy-go-lucky days are numbered because new fires are an ongoing concern (see the Red Flag warning). Please do your part to prevent fires.  

Independence day weekend smoke forecast, and a task for everyone

Satellite imagery and ground- based fine particle pollution monitoring data show that smoke from the Lytton fire in British Columbia and the Lava Fire in northern California is mostly overhead right now. Gray polygons are smoke plumes (darker gray = denser smoke) and the circles/ squares are monitors measuring Good (and some Moderate) air quality. 

Forecast models are showing that some of this smoke will make it down to the surface in eastern WA later today. This is also true for the higher terrain of the Cascades. However we're not expecting anything worse than Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. Please continue to follow the five-day smoke forecast. 

We're expecting winds to shift July 4-5, which should improve air quality statewide... if we can avoid any new fires. Local fireworks shows could result in levels as high as Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups near the demonstrations. 

Puget Sound lowlands forecast

We do not expect smoke to reach the ground in most of western WA, so air quality should be mostly Good to Moderate. A few pretty sunsets are possible. 

Be Ready to Protect Your Health

Now that wildfires are here, it’s time to be prepared to protect ourselves from the smoke that comes along with them. Stock up on necessary supplies, like MERV 13 filters for DIY box fan filters or upgrading your HVAC system—they fly off the shelf when the smoke gets bad. For more information check out the health tab or visit WA DOH’s Smoke from Fires webpage.

And lastly, a task for everyone

We encourage our readers to submit brief comments explaining creative ways they celebrate our Independence, while minimizing fire and smoke risks. Sometime next week, we'll publish our top picks from the submissions. Have a happy and safe 4th of July!

It isn't wildfire smoke in Western WA. Its called Biogenic Secondary Organic Aerosol

Say what?

First, there is no major infusion of wildfire smoke into Western WA. Satellite imagery shows hardly a cloud or wisp of smoke over the last 3 days. However several fine particle pollution monitors have been showing air in the Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range. 

So whodunit?

The ridge of high pressure over the state giving us this extreme heat is also responsible for forcing air downward and trapping pollutants within a shallow layer. This is known as a subsidence inversion. Since winds are relatively light, all the pollution generated by human activities tends to accumulate over time. But that's not all.

Trees also emit organic gases such as terpenes and isoprene, more so on hot days. These pollutants of biogenic origin undergo various complex chemical reactions in the atmosphere, giving rise to small particles known as Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA). "Secondary" because the aerosols are not released directly from sources but formed as a result of subsequent physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere. The diurnal nature of the elevated pollution levels over the last few days are consistent with how we expect biogenic SOA to behave. A WSU air quality model is showing the same thing.

 Biogenic emissions are also one of the ingredients of ground level ozone, aka "smog" formation. They react with oxides of nitrogen (mostly from traffic and industrial sources) under the right meteorological conditions to form ozone. All those factors came together yesterday and will do so again today to cause high ozone levels in the Cascade Foothills of King and Pierce counties. Expect air to be in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or even Unhealthy range on account of this. An Air Quality Alert is in effect. 

Skip the tech talk. When will it go away?

Starting tomorrow. 

As the thermal trough shifts inland and reduces western WA temperatures somewhat, biogenic emissions reduce and so does SOA formation. So we expect fine particle pollution levels to be around the Good/ Moderate level from tomorrow onward if there are no new fires. Please see the forecast map above. Ozone formation will also relax a bit. [Side note: please do your part to prevent fires during this time of extreme fire risk. There are Red Flag Warnings about this]. 

What about eastern WA?

A 20,000 acre brushfire near the town of Lind is causing quite a bit of smoke locally. Winds are initially shifting the plumes westward, before driving it toward the Spokane area starting Wednesday. If the fire is still burning, that is. Moderate air is expected, with worse conditions closer to the fire.

Be #SmokeReady2021

 

Now's the perfect time to get prepared for potential smoke from wildfire in 2021. As we in the Northwest know, wildfire smoke lingering in the air makes it hard to breathe and can cause or worsen health problems. Agencies throughout Washington have partnered to promote Smoke Ready Week, June 14-18. You'll find helpful tips to lessen the impact of smoke at Washington Department of Ecology, Washington Department of Health, Washington Department of Natural Resources, Spokane Clean Air Agency, the Colville Tribe, EPA, and other state and federal partners using the hashtag #SmokeReady2021. Be sure to check out the smoke blogs of our neighbors in Idaho and Oregon too.

Here's our 10 Tips for planning ahead to protect you and your family from smoke, including Washington Dept. of Health's guidance on protecting yourself from wildfire smoke during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

New smoke forecast tool

The map on this blog's webpage now includes a smoke forecast tool. It adds a layer to the Washington state map and gives the color-coded AQI forecast for every region in Washington. Currently it's a 2-day forecast, but watch for the expanded 5-day smoke forecast within the next week. Now you can plan ahead for that weekend trip to the lake!

And with that we wrap up our coverage for 2020, but before you go there are a few things to know

As always, good news first

Wildfires in WA and most of OR are out and there is no risk of returning to the terrible conditions we endured last month. Fall meteorology is active enough to keep air moving along and prevent a buildup of pollutants.

What to watch for

• Northern CA fires are still burning and an occasional whiff of smoke is still possible. Western WA got a small dose earlier this week, causing Moderate air in some areas. 
• Wintertime wood smoke season is coming and while it almost never gets as bad as what we've just been through, temperature inversions and light winds can cause smoke to stagnate. Valley communities are more prone to this and often experience poor air.
• Check if an air quality burn ban has been called for your area (not to be confused with fire safety burn bans). 
• We recommend our readers keep an eye on the map at the top of this page. It is automatically updated with measured fine particle pollution data and a two-day forecast, year round. 
• This blog also contains resources on how to safeguard your health during polluted periods. 

See you in summer 2021!

You can see it, but you don't have to breathe most of it. How cool is that

Smoke continues to hover overhead and the previous forecast still holds. As explained there the temperature inversion is still keeping the smoke at bay. We've hardly seen air quality deteriorating beyond Moderate anywhere in the state, or further upwind in Oregon for that matter. 

There is fog in the Puget Sound lowlands and this will recur each morning through Sunday. Fog should not be confused with smoke. Here's an illustration of what's what as seen from above, but only an air quality monitor can distinguish between the two at ground level.

Things will stay that way and start to "improve" by Saturday night as a slight wind shift s-l-o-w-l-y disconnects us from the CA smoke late in the weekend. Models are persisting with the inversion in western WA so any residual smoke aloft wont mix down all that much. But inversions also lock in our own local emissions at the surface. Overall, we can expect:

• Good to Moderate air in much of the state
• Moderate or areas of Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in the higher terrain of the Olympics and Cascades (hard to pin down what elevation the transition occurs).
• Saturday's sunset may not be as colorful

BTW the air quality monitoring data map at the top of this blog has been upgraded to show both the new EPA Fire/ Smoke map that incorporates corrected low-cost sensor data, and our 2-day PM_2.5 forecast. Might take a moment to load. If you're using a mobile device, scroll to the bottom of this page and click "View web version" to see this.