Scorching weekend won't be smoke and smog free; plus a new tool expands smoke monitoring

As temperatures approach triple digits in western WA on Sunday and exceed that in eastern WA through Tuesday, we're also looking at some smoke impacts in places. And possibly some ozone in two known hotspots. 

Local fires

The Mosier fire in Wasco County, Oregon is currently sending light smoke into south central WA and causing some Moderate air. As surface winds turn offshore tomorrow, assuming the fire continues to puff, we could see some smoke drift along the gorge toward Portland/ Vancouver and cause air to degrade to Moderate. The current smoke forecast model is a bit pessimistic for Saturday. No reason to suspect that most of eastern WA will see Moderate air tomorrow. It should be mostly restricted to the gorge and the south central Cascades. Other fires in north central WA could cause occasional Moderate conditions elsewhere. 

Here's the most likely smoke forecast for the whole weekend.

More distant fires

Upper level flow turns south by Sunday and models are suggesting some smoke from norther California fires could be transported over western WA by then. Not expecting much of it to mix down to the lowlands, but those views of Mt Rainier might not be that clear, and sunsets might be a bit more resplendent. 

Siberian smoke hanging around the Gulf of Alaska is mostly expected to get shunted to our north. Not much of it is mixing down to the surface anyway. 

Ozone

Cascade foothills in eastern King and Pierce counties, and also the Tri Cities could see ozone levels (loosely called "smog") creeping up over the weekend. More info on ozone pollution here.

And finally, here's an exciting new data tool 

EPA has partnered with the US Forest service to make available data collected nationwide (mostly by citizen scientists) using PurpleAir sensors. These sensors are known as "low cost sensors" for a reason, and they are not able to match the data quality and accuracy of permanent sensors. So while they often help fill data voids, there are a lot of caveats with their use. 

EPA & USFS worked with states around the country to develop conversion factors to transform PurpleAir data to better match up against permanent monitors in near-real-time. Corrected data are now available alongside the rest of the fine particle pollution (PM_2.5) data. PurpleAir monitors are shown as squares. Here's a snapshot of the short explanation on the page. 

Light smoke above most of the state, gradually clearing through Saturday

Light winds are keeping smoke from multiple sources swirling over much of the state, with most of the smoke staying aloft. The July Complex fires in northern CA are sending smoke our way, as are smaller local and regional fires. While there has been some Siberian smoke visible on satellites over Alaska & British Columbia, there is no evidence to suggest any of that has dropped down into Washington.

On-shore winds will gradually pick up today and start the slow process of flushing out smoke (read: push it into Idaho, Montana and BC). But that flushing process is fraught with its own dangers as reflected by the Red Flag Warning issued by the National Weather Service in Spokane.

The air quality forecast map shows conditions in eastern WA will be no worse than Moderate through Saturday, although areas very close to fires may see poorer air.



We will start the following week on a clean slate but fire weather concerns return on Monday despite a  slight cool down. Not the time to let our guard down.

2020 wildfire smoke has arrived, and we have a new forecast map to keep y'all apprised

Wildfire smoke is making a gentle, phased entry into Washington. Main culprit today is smoke from the Caldwell fire near Lava Beds National Monument in northern California, which is starting to drift over southeastern Washington in light amounts today. This is expected to continue through tomorrow at least, causing areas of Moderate air.

This is all reflected on our new wildfire smoke forecast map, which recently went live on Ecology's air monitoring webpage.



The above tool offers interactive forecasts of daily average smoke conditions for today and tomorrow across the state. Feel free to use the Search feature, pan and zoom around to locate areas of interest. Plans are underway to reflect the same forecast on the map above this blog. Curious about how it all works? Click here.

Conditions in eastern WA are also ripe for new fire starts and their rapid spread this week. The public is highly encouraged to exercise utmost caution to prevent new fires.



And lastly, typical COVID face masks do not offer protection from wildfire smoke. N95 masks are required for that, and those maybe in short supply. So lets do our due diligence and not invite nature to come at us with a two-pronged pitchfork.

Wildfire Smoke During COVID-19

Breathing in wildfire smoke by itself can cause anywhere from minor symptoms, such as eye, nose, and throat irritation, to more dangerous symptoms like wheezing, coughing, shortness of breath, and worsening existing chronic conditions. With the COVID-19 pandemic, there may be more cause for concern this season.

What are the health impacts of COVID-19 overlapping with wildfire smoke?

Both wildfire smoke and COVID-19 impact our respiratory and immune systems. If you already have COVID-19, breathing in wildfire smoke may make your symptoms worse. If you don’t have COVID-19, it may make you more likely to get it. People most vulnerable to wildfire smoke, like those over 65 or with pre-existing conditions, are also those most at risk for COVID-19.

How will this season be different?

When you have poor air quality in your home this year, it might not be safe to seek cleaner and cooler indoor air at public spaces, such as libraries or malls. Check in advance to see if these places are open and be prepared for lower capacity, to physically distance, and wear a cloth face covering. If you are considering leaving the area to get relief from smoke, consider the COVID-19 restrictions in the county you are traveling to and the people you are visiting. This is especially important if they are more sensitive to COVID-19.

While still in short supply, N95 respirators should continue to be reserved for those required to wear them for their job. It is important to wear your cloth face covering to slow the spread of COVID-19, but they won’t provide much protection from breathing in wildfire smoke.

With additional limitations this season, it will be best to stay at home and keep your indoor air clean. Because of impacts to the supply chain, it may take longer to receive supplies from retailers, so start preparing your home now.

Keeping wildfire smoke out and indoor air clean in your home

Take steps to improve filtration of indoor air and create a clean air room. Filtrating indoor air will reduce fine particles (PM 2.5) from wildfire smoke and provide some protection from COVID-19, but this alone is not enough to protect you from COVID-19.

When the air quality is poor, you will need to take additional steps to keep indoor air clean.

• Close your windows and doors when it is smoky outside. Ventilation is good for helping prevent COVID-19, so when air quality is good, open them to get fresh air to reduce smoke levels and viral load. 
• Don’t add to indoor air pollution by avoiding burning candles or incense, smoking inside, or vacuuming (unless your vacuum has a HEPA filter).

As we learn more about the impacts of COVID-19 and wildfire smoke, information will become available here and on the Washington State Department of Health’s Smoke from Fires webpage.  

It's time to get "Smoke Ready"

Smoke Ready Week 2020

Now's the perfect time to get prepared for potential smoke from wildfire in 2020. As we in the Northwest know, wildfire smoke lingering in the air makes it hard to breathe and can cause or worsen health problems. Agencies throughout Washington have partnered to promote Smoke Ready Week, June 15-19. You'll find helpful tips to lessen the impact of smoke at Washington Department of Ecology, Washington Department of Health, Spokane Clean Air Agency, the Colville Tribe, and others using the hashtag #SmokeReady2020. Be sure to check out the smoke blogs of our neighbors in Idaho and Oregon too.

Here's our 10 Tips for planning ahead to protect you and your family from smoke. Also view EPA's fact sheet, Prepare for Fire Season, for a checklist of steps to take right now.

Cool new smoke forecasting tool coming

Stay tuned for Dr. Ranil's new wildfire smoke forecasting tool. It adds a layer to the Washington state map on this blog and gives the color-coded AQI forecast for every region in Washington. It's in the final stages of development right now. We can't wait to roll it out and share it with you!

Information: See you in Summer 2020

Just when it was looking like our smoke season was starting early, Mother Nature nipped it in the bud and we had a fairly mild 2019 for wildfire smoke, especially compared to the last few years. Shew! It was nice to get a breather - literally!

In his last post, Ranil explains the data and science-y stuff around our low-smoke year.

As much as we wish to never have another wildfire season, we’re prepared to return to this blog around July 2020 with smoke information, current conditions, forecasts, health tips, and more. 

In the meantime, here’s information and contacts for your off-season inquiries.

Current air quality conditions

The air monitoring map on this blog displays current data and is active all year long. Mobile users can find it here. For additional monitors, view the Monitoring & Forecasting tab.

Local air quality contacts

Have questions about smoke or air quality issues today? Contact your local clean air agency. Phone numbers, websites, and a printable map are available here. Also view the Local Information tab for additional county contacts including local health, emergency management, and sheriff’s offices. For emergencies, please call 911.

Current fires on the map

If you see fires on the monitoring map during the off-season, those are likely silvicultural prescribed fires. View a daily list of prescribed burn details from the Washington Department of Natural Resources.

Be prepared for next wildfire season 

Get a jump on next wildfire season by being #SmokeReady. Here's 10 Tips for planning ahead to protect you and your family from smoke. Also view EPA's fact sheet "Prepare for Fire Season" for a checklist of steps to do now.

Many thanks

This blog is due to great partnerships between several Washington agencies and federal teams. We are grateful for their commitment and dedication to our Washington communities. We also thank you for your questions and comments, and for sharing this information with your neighbors. 

Have a wonderful winter and spring in our beautiful state of Washington. Breathe well.

This smoke season's anomalies explained, with a Labor day smoke forecast tacked on

Easy part first:

Western WA Labor day weekend smoke forecast
After a welcome dousing of rain yesterday and consistent on- shore flow this weekend, the fire risk will remain low. No major smoke impacts expected over the Labor day weekend so go ahead & enjoy the Good air, but please be diligent and prevent new fires. Too many reports of abandoned campfires, dragging chains and discarded cigarettes starting new fires.

Eastern WA smoke forecast
Two issues worth mentioning, although one of them may not amount to much:

1. Some spotty smoke is present around Asotin County, likely from the Cow Fire in Oregon, and the area is likely to see intermittent Moderate air over the next few days. 
2. All the smoke models are assuming that a few fires in the Okanogan- Wenatchee National Forest are actively pumping out smoke and they maybe right to some extent, but are likely overstating the magnitude. Haven't seen any measurable smoke impacts at Leavenworth, Chelan, the Methow Valley or Stehekin as yet and don't expect area air quality to degrade beyond Moderate on occasion.

Other than that, we're mostly expecting Good air provided there are no new fires. Warmer, dryer conditions are predicted to return mid week, reminding us that the fire season is not over yet.

WZUP with this wildfire smoke season?

Here's an animation showing how the worst air quality days in the last 2 wildfire seasons compared with this year. While 2019's worst day thus far wasn't even close to those of the previous two anomalously smoky years, it occurred so early in the season (May 31) and got us all worried about what might transpire. More so since the seasonal outlook available at that time called for a slightly warmer-than-normal and dryer-than-normal summer.

Thankfully, that smoky scenario hasn't played out this year. The chances of the smoke monster making a comeback are diminishing as the sun becomes more preoccupied with baking the southern hemisphere.

The # of wildfires burned by today in 2019 is lower than the low- smoke years of 2013 & 2016. How nice to be lagging behind!

Year-to-date	# of fires nationwide
2019 (1/1/19 - 8/29/19)	32,887
2018 (1/1/18 - 8/29/18)	43,448
2017 (1/1/17 - 8/29/17)	45,981
2016 (1/1/16 - 8/29/16)	39,997
2015 (1/1/15 - 8/29/15)	43,511
2014 (1/1/14 - 8/30/14)	38,454
2013 (1/1/13 - 8/30/13)	34,256

Data source: National Interagency Fire Center

Here are some of the main meteorological factors that mitigated the build-up of smoke that was released from the few fires that did burn. I've only considered the anomalous smoke years of 2017 & 2018 in one of the graphics below (#2. wind vector animation).

1. Less frequent high pressure systems over us
   Here's a comparison of the height at which atmospheric pressure reaches 500mb (usually around 18K feet above), showing differences between 5 recent summers (excluding 2017 & 2018), and 2019. Data are June- July composites from global weather models that have been re-analyzed after the observational data became available. 2019 August data aren't yet available.
   The yellow over our region suggests that upper level pressure in past years were 10- 20m higher than what we saw in June- July this year. Not an insignificant difference. Include 2017 & 2018 and the difference jumps to about 35m.
   
   Higher pressure = lighter winds, warmer temperatures and dryer air. All the factors needed for conducive fire behavior and poor smoke dispersion happened less frequently this year.
   
   An aside: notice how areas to our north & the Arctic had higher pressure this year than the last few. We had several early season fires in northern Alberta & Alaska. In fact the May 31 2019 smoke shown in the air quality map animation above mostly originated from northern Alberta.
   
2. Stronger upper level winds aimed at the Pacific Northwest
   
   Here's how the 700mb level (about 10K feet above) winds in recent summers compared with 2019. Notice how 2019 winds aimed at the Pacific NW are stronger than their 2012- 2018 counterparts. More active weather impacting our region = less chance for air to stagnate. 
   
3. Cooler upper air temperatures
   
   And now, a 850mb level (4500 feet above) temperature difference plot. 2-3C warmer in other years than 2019. For a two month average, that's quite a difference. Cooler upper level air temps this year = less ground level warming & drying out.
   

Why the region's seasonal climatic variables behaved this way is beyond the scope of this blog. This season's fire behavior is compared & contrasted in a recent interview. The interested reader can compare ground- based observations of temperature and precipitation each year, against historical norms using the following NWS links.

• Western WA (6 locations)
• Eastern WA (9 locations)

Eh? Whats that smoke over the Puget Sound and Yakima?

Around 11AM yesterday the satellites started detecting a large cloud of smoke from a hotspot in the Wenatchee National Forest in Yakima county, just east of Highway 410. This was from a 300-acre prescribed burn authorized by DNR. Smoke was buoyant and lofted over the Cascades courtesy of strong east winds. Here's what the satellite picture looked like at 5PM yesterday.

The fire was smoldering this morning and a further 230 acres were authorized for burning at the same location today. A little bit of the smoke that drifted west appears to have mixed to the surface this morning, with several Puget Sound area monitors recording Moderate air for a few hours. The latest smoke models show this dissipating by afternoon today. However the residual smoke could exacerbate the potential for ozone (smog) formation in the east slopes of the King/ Pierce County Cascades today, so air quality due to the combination of fine particles and ozone is likely to stay in the Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups through late this evening. On-shore airflow overnight is likely to restore Good air quality to most of western WA by Thursday.

Since smoke models assume that fires continue to emit all day & night, they're predicting that the Yakima valley will see some smoke impacts today & tomorrow. Given such assumptions, it is hard to determine the amounts of smoke that will actually reach populated areas. Needless to say some smoke is projected to drain into the valley so nearby communities should brace for compromised air over the next day or so.

Models are also showing that smoke from the Cow Fire in Oregon (see above) is likely to brush the far southeastern part of the state by Thursday evening into Friday as the wind shifts. Amount of smoke is unknown at this time.

All this bears watching. We will post an update and a long weekend outlook on Thursday.

Summer returns this week, but what about smoke?

At the time of writing, the state is almost entirely cloud free. What you dont see clearly in this short satellite animation is a very thin layer of Alaskan smoke that is drifting over western WA, likely contributing a little fine particle pollution to our ground level monitors. Some Puget Sound area monitors briefly showed Moderate air this morning.

Western WA forecast

The Canadian model shows this smoke mostly blowing offshore and staying away after today. Winds wont become dead calm today or tomorrow, so chances of lingering smoke are low. Barring new fires in the area, fine particle pollution levels are expected to remain Good, with perhaps a few splotches of Moderate through Wednesday. Ozone however, is another story. See below.

Eastern WA forecast
No major fires at present, neither is the area expected to be downwind of any fires through Wednesday. However there's a long list of small fires at any given time, and conditions are right for their growth this week. Expecting mostly Good air through Wednesday except near fires. The public is strongly encouraged to do their due diligence and exercise utmost caution to prevent the spread of fires.

Ozone
Conditions are right for ozone (smog) formation Tuesday & Wednesday on both sides of the Cascades. Problem spots are around Enumclaw and Yelm in western WA, and Kennewick in the east. Some periods of Moderate air should be expected. Ozonematters.com provides succinct information on proactive steps that can be taken to minimize ozone pollution.

However it must be mentioned that summer 2019 hasn't had many high ozone days. Here's a plot showing how Kennewick's ozone days and potential ozone days compared with past years. Potential ozone days (gray bars) are when the day's weather lined up with historical meteorological conditions under which elevated ozone levels were observed. It is clear that there were fewer days where weather was conducive for ozone this summer, even when the rest of the summer is taken in account.

Our next blog post will provide a smoke forecast for Labor Day weekend, and we will also explore some of the reasons why this summer has been a low smoke year thus far.

No Smoke on the Horizon

The Williams Flats fire activity is low, with some minimal creeping and smoldering.  Firefighters estimate that it should be completely contained by this Friday. 

The NWCC Morning Brief states that holdover fires continue to be discovered in Washington/Oregon but they are exhibiting low fire behavior with minimal spread potential. No new large fires have been reported and forecast fire danger is mostly low to moderate.  However, there is still potential for brush fires in southeastern Washington.  Expect continued Good air quality across most of the state for the foreseeable future, with some occasional Moderate blips in select locations.

The weather forecast for the next few days shows dry and normal temperatures, with some marine layer clouds expected in western Washington.  Moderate winds are expected through the Cascade gaps during the afternoons for the next few days.  Widespread cloudy skies are expected this weekend, with continued northwesterly flow off the coast pushing clouds over eastern Washington.  Don't expect much precipitation, but a few showers are possible on Friday and Saturday.

No images of smoke to share (that's a good thing), but the GOES-West imagery showed some interesting cloud structures travelling across WA/OR border this morning: