Smoke Outlook for the Devore Creek Fire - August 3, 2019

Aug 2, 2019 - Smoke Outlook for the Left Hand Fire

8/1/2019 Smoke Outlook for South Central Washington

7/31/2019 Smoke Outlook for South Central Washington

7/30/2019 Air Quality and Wildfires Update

So far this summer wildfire smoke impacts to air quality have been fairly minimal. Significant smoke from numerous large wildfires in Alaska and Canada barely brushed the state by traveling instead to the east and the Great Lakes region. But a few active wildfires burning in Washington are causing light smoke impacts in the south central portion of the state. The largest is the Left Hand fire burning to the west/northwest of Yakima. Winds have moved the smoke from this fire to the south/southeast and the town of Sunnyside has seen multiple days of Moderate air quality conditions due to smoke from Left Hand and from the Pipeline fire. Other nearby communities from Ellensburg to Toppenish, Naches, and Yakima have experienced light smoke at times and are likely to continue to see smoke until the Left Hand fire is brought under control. Air quality impacts from Moderate to short periods of Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups can be expected in this area. Somewhat windy conditions today (Tuesday) could cause the Left Hand fire to grow. The nearby Pipeline fire is at 95 % containment with minimal fire behavior so should not contribute to degraded air quality much longer. See map below for location of these fires.

Left Hand.  31 mi NW of Yakima, WA. Start 7/23. Full Suppression. Cause: Lightning. 2,500 (+0) acres. 15% containment. Active fire behavior. Timber. Structures Threatened. Road and Area closures.  More details here: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/6456/
Pipeline.  7 mi N of Selah, WA. Start 7/23. Full Suppression. Cause: Unknown. 6,515 (+0) acres. 95% containment. Minimal fire behavior. Brush. Area closures. Transfer of command back to local unit will occur today.

Location of Left Hand and Pipeline fires.

Another fire to watch over time is Devore Creek located in extremely rugged terrain high in the Glacier Peak wilderness near the north end of Lake Chelan. Firefighters on the scene in Stehekin report that air quality there has remained good. Due to the remote location and extreme terrain, firefighters expect this fire will not be 100 percent extinguished until a season ending rain or snow event in the fall. Some visible light smoke is possible at times around the north end of Lake Chelan, Stehekin, and Holden Village but unless fire conditions change, air quality is expected to remain Good.

Devore Creek.  3 mi SW of Stehekin, WA. Start 7/26. Confine/Point Zone Protection. Cause: Unknown. 150 (+0) acres. 0% containment. Timber. Trail closures. More details here: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/6463/

Location of Devore Creek fire.

Smoke in Central Washington from Local Fires

Smoke plumes were visible this morning over Central Washington, and residents around Yakima are experiencing air quality in the Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range.  The smoke in Yakima will likely stick around for most of the day due to low winds and nearby fires.  Other residents in Central Washington that are near local fires could also experience some modest smoke.  

GOES-West Imagery (9 a.m. Thursday)

There was a lot of lightning earlier this week, and with it came new fire starts.  Fire fighters have been working hard to suppress and contain fires this week, with many put out quickly.  The NWCC Morning Brief  lists the remaining active fires that are not yet contained:

• Kusshi Creek fire on the Yakama Indian Reservation: 320 acres (timber)
• Left Hand Fire about 30 miles NW of Yakima (Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest): 160 acres (timber)
• Pipeline Fire between Yakima and Ellensburg: 4000 acres (brush)
• Desert Canyon Fire about 15 miles NNE of Wenatchee near Lake Entiat: 1000 acres (grass).
• Graham Fire about 10 miles SW of Cheney: 100 acres (timber)
• Saddle Mountain Fire just north of Mattawa: 350 acres (grass)

Currently the fires are relatively small, but fire growth is expected as winds pick up over the next few days. Holdover fires are also likely to appear in the next several days. In general, fire behavior potential continues to slowly increase across the region.

Fires Detected by Satellite in Central Washington (July 25)

Temperatures will heat up and get drier today thru Friday, but it will be breezy Friday night into Saturday with a chance of thunderstorms in the Cascades. This will keep temperatures normal over the weekend but it will heat up again next week which will allow more fire growth.

Not much to worry about locally for now. Will this be a low-smoke summer?

Air quality remains Good statewide and will likely remain that way for the next few days. Some rain expected (< 0.5", but that's a lot for WA in July) and clouds are already streaming in, with temperatures running close to normal. Not great for summer but very good for air quality.

Here's how air quality looks nationally as of yesterday. Red triangles are fire locations and colored dots are air quality readings, the worst of which is "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups". Smoke plumes are shaded gray.

The Great Lakes and Northeast is being impacted by smoke from fires in Manitoba & Ontario, while Alaskan smoke is what we're watching closer to home.

Here's what the fire danger assessment for north America is today. The bigger fires are mostly in Canada & Alaska thanks to very dry & hot conditions to our north.

What does this all mean for the rest of our summer? Are all those doom & gloom predictions of the "new normal" and smoke monsters laid to rest?

1. Haha, I wish! Too early to tell.
2. All it takes is two weeks of hot & dry conditions for the fire risk to ramp up significantly. 
3. Even if (2) doesn't materialize, smoke transport from fires elsewhere can cause lots of air quality woes.
4. And we won't know about (3) until a few days before the event, because longer range models aren't terribly accurate with those finer details.

So while enjoying the summer air, keep an eye on this blog. We'll do our best to keep you posted.

Weekend statewide forecast: some Alaskan smoke did add to the fireworks but should dissipate soon

How much damage did we do to our air yesterday?

Seems like we got through the 4th of July fireworks with no major, widespread degradation in air quality. North Bend and Marysville briefly recorded Unhealthy air last evening and several other sites are reporting Moderate air this morning. There is evidence that light amounts of Alaskan wildfire smoke did mix down to the surface today, as advertised by the Canadian smoke model. More on that below for anyone interested.

Weekend forecast

Expect Moderate air in splotches today as residual smoke clears out slowly during the day, and thereafter it should be mostly Good air statewide this weekend. There is nothing in the forecast over the next 5 days to suggest a major warm up or drying out. Temperatures around normal and slightly higher than normal precip all work against wildfires. We'll keep our focus on smoke transported from more distant sources.

About that Alaskan wildfire smoke theory

On Wednesday, the Canadian smoke model (also called "Firework", incidentally) was the only one which predicted Alaskan smoke will mix to the surface this morning. It was the most pessimistic of the suite of smoke models we use, but proved correct. How do we know that? Consider the following:

• Timing of some of the increases in fine particle pollution levels: firework- induced (i.e. the loud, smoky and flashy ones, not complex software running on servers north of 49 degrees latitude) pollution typically spikes on the evening and night of July 4th and declines thereafter. Several sites in eastern WA show concentrations flatlining at Moderate levels into this morning without much of a decline. Sunnyside, Chelan and the Methow Valley in particular. 
• Monitors in southern British Columbia, where fireworks aren't a factor on 7/4, also showed gradual increases this AM. While it is possible that some WA firework pollution may have been transported there (travel time of a few hours), the concentrations haven't declined like they did at our firework- smoke affected sites. Also, not all sites close to border crossings show evidence of a plume passing by late at night.
• Satellite pictures this morning show a thin layer of smoke aloft and the above points suggest it did mix to the surface, albeit in small quantities.

Statewide forecast for Independence Day and beyond

Good news

Current air quality is Good statewide and there are no major fires at present. Atmospheric dispersion is expected to be somewhat OK through the weekend with temperatures, humidities and winds not given to rapid fire growth.

So... I can have a blast with fireworks, right? The atmosphere will self- clean, wont it?
Not so fast! A few things to consider:

• Fireworks not only cause smoke but are also responsible for starting several new fires - something we can ill afford. This can't be over-stressed: as far as it depends on us, inject as little smoke as possible into the atmosphere and exercise utmost caution with pyrotechnics.
  
• Dispersion is "somewhat OK", not fabulous. The self- cleaning cycle will only do so much for us, and we must not overwhelm it with preventable smoke.
  
• Smoke from Alaskan fires is at our doorstep, or should I say rooftop, poised to gate crash the 4th of July party. Models are sending mixed messages whether or not some smoke will mix to the surface. The Canadian model suggests light amounts dropping down east of the Cascades.

The last thing we want to wake up to on the 5th of July is a dose of wildfire smoke AND firework smoke, especially when the latter is within our control.

Wishing our readers a happy & safe July 4th!  

Statewide Forecast - Good Air Quality in Washington

Alaska and Canada are still experiencing several wildfires and a lot of smoke.  We may see a wispy tongue of that smoke make it's way to the B.C./Washington border early Tuesday morning, but air quality should still remain Good over the next couple days. 

People will be testing out fireworks this week and typically we see more wildfires start around 4th of July due to human causes.  Please be extra cautious around dry grass/brush if you plan on celebrating with fireworks this week.  In particular, there are strong winds forecast in the Columbia Basin over the next couple days, and with it comes the possibility of brush fires.

National Weather Service - Spokane Office - Weather Story - June 1, 2019

Information - June 28: Be Smoke Ready!

Despite the thunder and lightning earlier this week, we thankfully haven’t seen much smoke in Washington skies yet this year. All it takes is one spark, though, so ask yourself: Are you #SmokeReady? Here are 10 tips to help you prepare:

• Plan ahead with your doctor: If you or a family member has asthma, or suffers from heart or lung disease, have a plan to manage your condition. Children, pregnant women, and people over age 65 are especially at risk during smoke events. Learn more.

• Get HEPA filters, recirculate your AC, and share space: Use a HEPA filter in your home’s central air system or your air conditioner unit or air purifier. Learn how to turn your AC to “recirculate” in both your home and your car. Also, check with your neighbors. If you or your neighbor doesn’t have good air filtration or air conditioning at home, arrange to share spaces with those who do.

• Employers, plan ahead with your employees: Have a plan in place for employees who work outdoors. Consider alternate work assignments or relocation to reduce employee exposure to smoke. For staff that work indoors, ensure your air filtration system is protective for smoke. Prepare for employees to face childcare closures, home emergencies, etc. Check with Washington Labor & Industries for guidance.

• Have a Plan B for outdoor events: Have a contingency plan prepared in case you need to cancel, reschedule, or move an outdoor event indoors. (Make sure the indoor venue has good air filtration!) If you have children in summer camps or childcare, ask the organizers about their smoke plan. Check with your county health department about cancellation guidelines.

• Buy a respirator mask: If you’ll be outdoors long enough to need a mask, check into an N95 or N100 respirator now. Plan ahead to ensure it's properly fitted. Masks do not work for everyone, though, so test the fit and comfort before you need it. Updated for 2020-2021: Washington Dept. of Health's guidance on protecting yourself from wildfire smoke during the the COVID-19 pandemic includes mask info.

• Stock up: Have several days of water, groceries, and family needs on hand so you don’t have to go out when it’s smoky.

• Don’t forget your pets: If the air quality is forecasted to be poor while you’re away from home, plan ahead to keep your pets inside or with a caregiver. Learn more.

• Learn the air quality index numbers and colors: During periods of poor air quality, watch for air quality alerts, pay attention to numbers and colors of air quality monitors, and know when to limit your time outdoors.

• Get alerts: Sign up to receive air quality email alerts for your zip code. Also, bookmark or subscribe to this blog for statewide air quality and wildfire updates.

• Become an expert!: Learn more about being Smoke Ready at EPA’s Smoke-Ready Toolbox for Wildfires and Washington Department of Health’s Smoke From Wildfires Toolkit.

Statewide forecast — June 21: Mostly smoke free weekend ahead, but...

Good news on the first day of summer: no major smoke events to report. A new fire did start at the Yakima Training Center yesterday but does not appear to be creating a whole lot of smoke now. Statewide air quality remains Good.

Good news for the first 3 days of summer: no major smoke intrusions expected statewide. We have been watching some ominous model simulations which bring a whiff of smoke from as far away as Manitoba to our state's borders (yeah that's what certain weather patterns are capable of!) but not expecting any substantial smoke impacts.

Notes of caution for the first weekend of summer: despite the lack of hot temperatures, strong-ish winds in eastern WA will help rapidly spread any new fires. We don't need any of that so please do your part to keep us all safe.

Wildfire information — June 13: No smoke at the moment but be careful out there.

Did you know that a majority of wildfires in Washington are human-caused? This is a very good time to be especially careful with fire in areas shown on the map below. The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for parts of central Washington indicating critical fire weather conditions are forecast. The NWS issues a Red Flag Warning, in conjunction with land management agencies, to alert people to an ongoing or expected critical fire weather pattern. The combination of expected high temperatures, dry conditions, and gusty winds today (Thursday) have led to the need for this warning.

More details on the situation are available from the NWS-Spokane office at this link:   https://www.weather.gov/otx/

Statewide forecast — June 11: Clear Skies and Sun Sun Sun!

The massive fires in Alberta are still spewing smoke, but none of that will make its way to our skies this week.  Forecasts call for clear skies and Good air quality.  Wildfire smoke should not be a problem in Washington this week.

Temperatures will peak in the 90s on Wednesday for counties in the Columbia Basin, with very little wind. It will still be hot in the Columbia Basin on Thursday as winds pick up, but high temperatures will drop down to the mid-80s on Friday.

Other parts of the state will also get quite hot, hitting mid-80s or higher on Wednesday.  Luckily, westerly winds are expected to pick up on Thursday afternoon and this will be accompanied by clouds and a cooling trend.

While we don't expect wildfire smoke this week, let's do our part to keep it that way!  It's very important for people to practice fire safety on hot/dry days.  Dry grasses are especially susceptible to human-caused ignition.

Statewide forecast — June 7: Cool, Wet, and Clean Air this Weekend... Warming Up Next Week

This weekend should be clear of any wildfire smoke, with Good air quality expected.  Conditions will be cool, cloudy, and wet in most parts of the state.  Lightning is a concern for fire starts, but the cool temperatures and expected precipitation should abate the potential for new wildfires.  Furthermore, the Fire Danger Index is currently low to moderate for most of the state.

However, a warming and drying trend is expected to start on Sunday, and by the middle of next week we will see temperatures reach the 90s! This will increase the chance of wildfires and smoke in the Pacific Northwest.

Statewide forecast — June 5: Highway 243 fire will "hose down" the Columbia Basin & Spokane with smoke. Rest of the state largely smoke free

The highway 243 fire in Grant County has grown to over 15,000 acres now and is 25% contained. Spokane recorded brief incursions of Unhealthy air yesterday, as high winds sent wavy plumes of smoke to several counties.

Since little smoke concerns exist elsewhere in the state through Friday, the rest of this post will only cover smoke from the Hwy 243 fire.

Strong winds with directional shifts will cause plumes to impact a wide swathe of downwind areas at different times. Not expecting much precipitation to help with firefighting or smoke dissipation. Smoke model animations look like someone is waving a water jet around the Columbia Basin! Here's how some models depict plumes between now and 11AM on Thursday. For those interested, different colors of these ensemble mean forward trajectories correspond to starting heights between 100m and 2000m AGL.

Given the fire growth, it ls likely that several areas will see air quality varying between Moderate and Unhealthy at different times. Worse close to the fires. Generally worse air during the day and slightly lower concentrations at night. Expect this behavior through Thursday.

This blog contains several resources to protect your health during wildfire smoke events. See https://wasmoke.blogspot.com/p/national-interagency-fire-information.html. Stay safe!

Statewide forecast — June 4: Spoke too soon. A new fire in Grant County is blowing smoke into the Columbia Basin

A fast moving fire, now estimated at 3000 acres close to Highway 243 in Grant County is clearly visible on satellite images and its smoke was observed at monitors in Mesa, Rosalia and Ritzville. No intel on the cause yet.

Strong-ish west winds are blowing the smoke into the basin and are expected to continue fanning the flames today. A breezy cold front passage tomorrow will only worsen fire spread. But the same winds also disperse smoke downwind of the fire (except right by the fire, where plumes can be concentrated).

Expecting air quality to vary between Moderate and Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in Franklin, Adams and parts of Whitman Counties between now and Thursday. Worse closer to the fire.

In other areas, the only smoke will be from fires we create. We dont need any of that so lets do our part to prevent fires.

Statewide forecast — June 3: Little to no smoke expected statewide this week

Quick update to let our readers know that the wildfire smoke risk is low this work week. Good on-shore winds & light precipitation will result in mostly Good air statewide. Enjoy the great outdoors!

Statewide forecast — May 31: Wildfire smoke is back and so are we. Expect light smoke over eastern WA this weekend

It would have been great if we could have wished our readers a "not so bad" 2019 wildfire smoke season. But smoke from Alberta has forced us back to business by the end of May. Fortunately, the levels in eastern WA are not that severe and are expected to be no worse that Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups this weekend. Most areas will record Good or Moderate air.

This pair of satellite images from yesterday and this AM show smoke from northern Alberta fires flowing down the Okanogan and Columbia River valleys into eastern WA.

Smoke is mixing down to the surface, and the fine particle pollution monitors have recorded a slight increase since this AM. Here's a 3-day timeseries of a few monitors in eastern WA.

Eastern WA weekend forecast

Models suggest some Alberta smoke will slosh around this weekend, initially receding from the Cascade foothills and Columbia Basin, being confined to the far eastern part of the state (including Spokane) before rebounding Sunday & Monday. Again, not expecting a lot of smoke. But the cat among the pigeons is the risk of lightning in the Cascades and NE Washington and the new fires this might spark off between now and Saturday evening. Spotty downpours are expected but their pollution- cleansing and fire- dousing potential may not be harnessed entirely if they're not in the right place at the right time.

Western WA weekend forecast

Little or no wildfire smoke is expected to reach the surface in western WA, but some light smoke aloft could make sunsets prettier. Smoke from local fires cannot be ruled out. See the section titled "Prescribed Burns" in the "Fire Information" tab above.

News — Oct. 31: See you in Summer 2019!

The 2018 Washington wildfire season is behind us, and we couldn’t be happier to see it end! 

As much as we wish to never have another wildfire season, we’re prepared to return to this blog around July 2019 with smoke information, current conditions, forecasts, health tips, and more. 

In the meantime, here’s information and contacts for your off-season inquiries.

Current air quality conditions

The air monitoring map on this blog displays current data and is active all year long. Mobile users can find it here. For additional monitors, view the Monitoring & Forecasting tab.

Local air quality contacts

Have questions about smoke or air quality issues today? Contact your local clean air agency. Phone numbers, websites, and a printable map are available here. Also view the Local Information tab for additional county contacts including local health, emergency management, and sheriff’s offices. For emergencies, please call 911.

Current fires on the map

If you see fires on the monitoring map during the off-season, those are likely silvicultural prescribed fires. View a daily list of prescribed burn details from the Washington Department of Natural Resources.

Be prepared for next wildfire season 

Get a jump on next wildfire season by reviewing the Washington Department of Health’s tips for protecting you and your family during smoke. Also view EPA's fact sheet "Prepare for Fire Season" for a checklist of steps to do now.

Blog survey results

Thank you to all who participated in our smoke blog customer survey in August. Here are the results of your feedback. 

Many, many thanks

This blog is due to great partnerships between several Washington agencies and federal teams. A giant thank you to Ranil Dhammapala, Farren Herron-Thorpe, and Matt Kadlec at Washington Department of Ecology; Janice Peterson and Marlin Martinez at the U.S. Forest Service; Teresa Lohr, Julie Fox, and Cris Lab at Washington Department of Health; all the hardworking Air Resource Advisors in the field; and many others who worked tirelessly to get information out there every day. We are grateful for their commitment and dedication to our Washington communities. 

We also thank you for your questions and comments, and for sharing this information with your neighbors. 

Have a wonderful winter and spring in our beautiful state of Washington. Breathe well.