Statewide forecast — Sept. 12: Rain this weekend! Bad news for fires.

Good air quality has been sustained across the state for several days now thanks to some precipitation, cooler temperatures, and increased relative humidity.  Significant precipitation is expected this weekend too, which will further reduce any remaining fire activity.  Clear skies are expected next week but the summer weather is done for this year.  We are even starting to see some agricultural and prescribed burns in places, which indicates that the summer wildfire season is on its way out the door.

Fire activity on the eastern slopes of the Cascades has been minimal. The light rain on Tuesday helped increase containment of fires like McLeod and Crescent Mountain. Some light smoke and fire activity will still be visible in parts of Okanogan County (e.g. Pasayten, Twisp) as stumps, downed logs, and other ground fuels continue to smolder.  Expect Good air quality for the next few days with some intermittent Moderate conditions immediately downwind of smoldering fires. 

Southwesterly winds are expected in Northeastern Washington over the next couple days.  So we shouldn't see much of any smoke from the nearby fires in Canada and Idaho that are still lingering.  Expect Good air quality, though some small fires in the area have been pushing the Newport monitor into the Moderate category at times.

Air quality around Yakima is Good but the Miriam fire is still experiencing a little growth.  This means that residents in Yakima county that are immediately downwind of the fire may see some intermittent Moderate conditions.

PM2.5 Monitor Dot Map for Wednesday (1 pm)

Statewide forecast — Sept. 7: It’s blowing away this weekend. Well, almost.

Western WA is largely free of smoke and will stay that way through early next week. Some light smoke from the Maple fire could potentially hit areas north of Seattle, but not expecting anything worse than spotty, short-lived Moderate conditions.

Weekend forecast for eastern WA
Southwest winds are picking up but haven't yet delivered much clean air yet. Present air quality runs the gamut from Good to Unhealthy. More greens will start appearing on the map as the day progresses, starting from the southwest. However some fire growth is expected as winds ramp up.

The southwest winds will die down on Saturday, allowing smoke from fires in the Washington Cascades to flow into nearby communities. Chelan and Okanogan Counties are likely to take a beating again (sorry!) and there is an Air Quality Alert through Sunday morning to address this. Air could be as bad as Very Unhealthy at times.

Eastern WA will also lie downwind of Oregon wildfires this weekend, although models are not advertising large smoke intrusions. Winds pick up again on Sunday with the possibility of some rain (YEAH!!!), alleviating air quality concerns somewhat. Here's what the UW weather models show for 24-hr total precipitation, ending at 5AM Monday. Over 1" in high terrain! Too optimistic?

All in all, areas to the south and east of a line from Goldendale to Spokane can expect mostly Good air this weekend. Yakima to Wenatchee could see periods of Moderate or even Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. Other than Chelan and Okanogan, north central and north eastern counties could see air ranging from Moderate to Unhealthy. Air quality will be better further from the Cascades.

Statewide forecast — Sept. 5: Smoke in eastern WA until Friday, west side starts to clear Thursday.

Some minor tweaks to the forecast issued yesterday:

1. A new-ish fire near Mt. Rainier (Wrong Creek) is pumping smoke into the south sound
2. Strong-ish winds on Friday will increase fire growth in eastern WA
3. Seems like the clearing is being slowed down slightly.

Here's the satellite picture from this morning (click for 1-2PM animation).

Notice how smoke has filled many of the Cascade valleys. The animation shows some smoke plumes have started blowing eastward this afternoon. Problem is, surface level winds are still easterly and will likely remain so until early Thursday. It will then take several hours to clean out western WA, so expect air to remain Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.

It will be Friday AM before eastern WA starts to scrub out, leaving many areas with Unhealthy or worse air. As the front drags through eastern WA:

1. Strong-ish winds will fan the flames and likely increase fire growth
2. Some Oregon smoke could clip southern and southeastern WA, perpetuating Moderate/ USG conditions

A return to Good air is likely over the weekend, save for areas very close to large fires.

Statewide forecast — Sept. 4: Smoke returns to eastern WA, western WA on track to get a whiff. Improvement on Thursday

Active weather over the last week helped most of the state breathe easy. But much of eastern WA took a turn for the worse last night with fine particle pollution levels ranging from Moderate to Unhealthy. Wildfires in Okanogan County and BC (just north of Stevens County) are the main culprits.

Here's what the latest satellite picture looks like.

A thin layer of smoke covers much of eastern WA, with denser plumes closer to the above mentioned areas (partially obscured by upper level clouds).

Forecast for eastern WA
Winds will die down and allow smoke to start accumulating later today through Thursday morning. This could lead to areas of Very Unhealthy air in parts of Okanogan and Stevens Counties. Unhealthy conditions currently seen in Spokane are likely to improve slightly as winds turn northeasterly.

Here's what the Canadian FireWork model is predicting for 2PM Wednesday (left) and 5AM Thursday:

 

Not expecting much clearing until late Thursday, but by then we might have smoke from fires to our south brushing by south central and southeastern WA. So don't bank on the air getting much cleaner than Moderate, anywhere in eastern WA before Friday.

Western WA forecast
As can be seen from the model predictions above, some smoke from fires in the Cascades is likely to drift into western WA (more pronounced north of Seattle). This could start as early as this evening, so don't be surprised if today's sunset evokes bad memories. But take heart: it wont be as bad as what we endured recently! Expect improvement by Thursday morning.

Local smoke outlook — Sept. 3: North Columbia Basin area

*This outlook was produced through the support of the Okanogan/Wenatchee National Forest and the Incident Management Teams working on local fires to help inform nearby communities of smoke impacts.

Fire update — Sept. 2: Active fires on the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Update on active fires in the Okanogan-Wenatchee NF.
The three largest fires in Washington are the McLeod, Crescent Mountain, and Cougar Creek fires. The Crescent Mountain fire remains the most active and smoky of the three and continues to impact air quality in the area at times with Twisp (and likely Carlton) as the hardest hit. Winds have been predominately from the NW moving smoke to the SE sparing Winthrop from Crescent Mountain smoke. Smoke production from the McLeod fire has lessened recently since it is showing much less activity and air quality in Winthrop has improved as a result. Smoke from the Cougar Creek fire has also reduced significantly as the fire is brought under control but smoke continues to affect Plain and Entiat at times depending on wind speed and direction.

Tonight winds will strengthen from the passage of a cold front and firelines will be tested. Winds will shift direction to be more northerly moving smoke to the south although brisk wind speeds should prevent smoke from accumulating.

Overview of the 3 largest fires in Washington.

Close up look at Crescent Mtn. fire and nearby communities.

Local smoke outlook — Sept. 2: North Columbia Basin area

⇒A statewide smoke and air quality forecast for the Labor Day weekend is available here:  https://wasmoke.blogspot.com/2018/08/statewide-smoke-forecast-for-labor-day.html

*This outlook was produced through the support of the Okanogan/Wenatchee National Forest and the Incident Management Teams working on local fires to help inform nearby communities of smoke impacts.

Local smoke outlook — Sept. 1: North Columbia Basin area

⇒A statewide smoke and air quality forecast for the Labor Day weekend is available here:  https://wasmoke.blogspot.com/2018/08/statewide-smoke-forecast-for-labor-day.html

*This outlook was produced through the support of the Okanogan/Wenatchee National Forest and the Incident Management Teams working on local fires to help inform nearby communities of smoke impacts.

Local smoke outlook — Aug. 31: North Columbia Basin area

*This outlook was produced through the support of the Okanogan/Wenatchee National Forest and the Incident Management Teams working on local fires to help inform nearby communities of smoke impacts.

Statewide forecast — Aug. 30: Labor Day Weekend

Fire activity has decreased significantly this past week, so smoke should be limited to areas immediately downwind of smoldering fires. With no big warm up expected and moist overnight humidity, fire growth should be minimal.  Furthermore, there is potential for rain in British Columbia (including Vancouver Island) Sunday night and Monday which could further decrease wildfire activity there.  Most areas of Washington state should have Good air quality this Labor Day weekend.

Western Washington:
It will be relatively cloudy and cool over most of Western Washington for the next couple days, but Sunday should be mostly sunny in the low to mid 70s.  Monday morning has the potential for some light rains, especially as you get closer to the Canadian border.  Air quality should be Good to Moderate in most places for the weekend.

Central and Eastern Washington:
Due to the proximity to local wildfires, we continue to see air quality fluctuate between Moderate and Unhealthy in areas like the Methow Valley, Pasayten, and Chelan.  This will likely continue through the weekend.  Some of the smoke from fires in the Cascades even made its way across the Columbia Basin and into Spokane early this morning.  Air quality was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, and a little worse for a few hours. That smoke has mostly cleared, but the Spokane area could potentially see more of these short smoky events over the weekend.  Air quality in the Columbia Basin and Northeastern Washington should mostly be in the Good to Moderate range this weekend, but there could be some intermittent smoke impacts that get into the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups category. Southern counties in particular can expect continued Good to Moderate conditions.

There is some fire activity north of Stevens county in Canada that could carry smoke into Northeastern Washington on Saturday and cause Moderate to Unhealthy conditions.  Any of that smoke should clear out by Sunday with the expected southwesterly winds.

Sunday and Monday will feature high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s for most areas.
Overall, expect dry and comfortable weather through Labor Day, with enough winds in the afternoons to provide good ventilation.

Local smoke outlook — Aug. 30: North Columbia Basin

*This outlook was produced through the support of the Okanogan/Wenatchee National Forest and the Incident Management Teams working on local fires to help inform nearby communities of smoke impacts.

Local smoke outlook — Aug. 29: North Columbia Basin

*This outlook was produced through the support of the Okanogan/Wenatchee National Forest and the Incident Management Teams working on local fires to help inform nearby communities of smoke impacts.

Methow valley backsliding, King & Pierce counties not up to spec

Just to be clear, the title applies to current smoke levels.

Here is this morning's satellite picture showing areas of smoke (clouds are whiter, smoke is light gray).

Light smoke, mostly from BC drifting over the Puget Sound lowlands is causing some areas of Moderate air around the central Sound. Chelan and Okanogan County fires are fouling up the Methow and nearby communities but thankfully haven't returned those areas to the conditions they saw last week.

Though you can't see it clearly, Vancouver Island fires are sending a plume that is sitting offshore waiting to come inland when the winds turn west/ southwest on Wednesday. The Canadian FireWork model seems to be the only one getting most of these details right, so here's the prediction for Wednesday afternoon (left) and Thursday morning (right), as the winds shift:

 

What this means for western WA
It is possible that air will be compromised in southwest WA and the central Sound on Wednesday, but we're not expecting anything worse than Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. Expect Good air by Thursday morning.

Eastern WA forecast
Except for areas close to major fires, we don't expect large-scale intrusions of smoke on Wednesday. Northeastern WA including Spokane might see a few hours with Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups on Thursday caused by transient plumes, but that will be followed by mostly Good air.

Please check back on Thursday for a Labor Day weekend smoke forecast.

Finally, we'd like to thank our readers for responding to the survey posted yesterday, and for flooding us with notes of appreciation. We will do our best to incorporate your suggestions into the smoke blog and forecasts. Feel free to complete the survey if you haven't already.

8/28/2018 Air Quality Outlook for the North Columbia River Basin

*This outlook was produced through the support of the Okanogan/Wenatchee National Forest and the Incident Management Teams working on local fires to help inform nearby communities of smoke impacts.

A version of the Outlook with live links is available here: LINK

While you're enjoying that clean air, we'd appreciate some feedback

Wow, does anyone remember when we last saw so many green dots across the state's air quality monitoring map? The clouds, wind and drizzle over the weekend got us great bang for the buck and reduced fire activity in the Cascades and also in British Columbia.

Since there is no imminent danger of returning to the terrible conditions we've all endured, we're asking you to please take a moment and send some feedback on this blog. Our aim is to provide the public with wildfire smoke-related air quality information, and we'd like to make sure we're doing that effectively.

This survey will take no more than 5 minutes to complete. Thank you very much!

08/27/2018 Air quality outlook for areas in the North Columbia Basin.

*This outlook was produced through the support of the Okanogan/Wenatchee National Forest and the Incident Management Teams working on local fires to help inform nearby communities of smoke impacts.

Sunday Update for Washington State

The cooler weather, onshore winds, and scattered rain will continue today as the clouds move east.  We should be back to clear skies on Monday afternoon and Tuesday.  Not for long though!  More cloudy and cool weather is expected to roll in on Wednesday.   Thanks to the weather, many Washington residents will continue to see relatively good air quality today and beyond.  However, it can be difficult to assess fire and smoke activity with all these clouds since satellites do not have a clear view.

Most of Western Washington is experiencing Good air quality, but a fire on JBLM has been sending smoke north and causing Moderate to Unhealthy air quality around the Seattle area.  The fire is contained but could continue to generate modest smoke that impacts nearby cities.

Northerly winds are expected on Monday, which could blow a little Canadian smoke into our state, but nothing like we saw earlier this year.  Residents in the Spokane area could also see smoke blow in from Idaho and Montana.  It should be short lived though, since Tuesday's forecast shows westerly winds are expected for the coast and southerly winds for Eastern Washington.

All in all, sporadic rain and shifty winds should keep air quality pretty good in our state, but if you are downwind from a fire you should expect some smoke.

Large Washington Fires:

McLeod, Cougar Creek, and Crescent Mountain in the North/Central Cascades are the largest fires in the state and continue to send smoke to various parts of Central and Eastern Washington.

The Boyds fire in Ferry county and the Horns Mountain fire in Stevens county have been impacting northeastern Washington, including Spokane.

The Maple fire on the southeast side of the Olympic National Park has seen minimal growth (currently 2,150 acres).

The Miriam and Meninick fires continue to generate moderate smoke for Yakima county.

PM2.5 monitors on Sunday (10 am)

8/26/2018 Air Quality Outlook for the Northern Columbia Basin

*This outlook was produced through the support of the Okanogan/Wenatchee National Forest and the Incident Management Teams working on local fires to help inform nearby communities of smoke impacts.

8/25/2018 Air Quality Outlook for areas in the North Columbia River Basin

*This outlook was produced through the support of the Okanogan/Wenatchee National Forest and the Incident Management Teams working on local fires to help inform nearby communities of smoke impacts.

Smoke Update for Washington State

The westerly winds cleared out all that stagnant smoke across the state yesterday, as expected.  Most of us in Washington have been able to get at least a few hours of Good air at times.  We are seeing less severe air quality problems around the state, with more localized patterns coming into play.  There is also some significant rain expected for the North Cascades on Sunday which is always welcome this time of year!

Western Washington

The Vancouver Island fires continue to generate smoke that is causing Moderate to Unhealthy smoky conditions at times around the west and north coastal areas of the Olympic Peninsula.  Port Angeles looks to be getting the worst of it.  Other parts of Western Washington have also been getting intermittent smoke, which is Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.  Thurston, Mason, and Kitsap counties are likely experiencing a mix of light to moderate smoke from the Maple Fire and the Vancouver Island fires.  Snohomish, King, and Pierce counties may also be seeing some of that as well.  Whatcom, Skagit, and Island counties are likely seeing some of the fringes of the BC wildfire smoke plumes.  

This intermittent smoke we are experiencing should be expected through the weekend.  Southwestern counties will likely continue to see the best air quality in the region.

Central & Eastern Washington

There is a large plume of smoke (see below) from BC and Central Washington wildfires over a large portion of Central and Northeastern Washington that is mostly aloft, but the models are showing that air quality is expected to get worse Friday afternoon in Chelan, Okanogan, Ferry, Stevens, Pend Oreille, Spokane, Douglas, Grant, and Lincoln counties.  It's unclear how much of that smoke will mix down to the surface.  The forecast does have most of that clearing out by Saturday morning for Spokane, Lincoln, and Grant counties.  However, Chelan, Douglas and all the Northern counties are set to remain under an air quality alert through the weekend, with Unhealthy air expected.  Yakima county has a couple fires of its own (Miriam and Meninick Pass) which are causing Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups air quality that is expected to continue through the weekend and may even have minor effects on downwind counties.  

There are still a considerable number of fires in the eastern slopes of the Cascades and the Colville National Forest which will send smoke to various parts of Central and Eastern Washington throughout the weekend.   The southeastern counties should continue to see the best air quality in the region.

GOES-East True Color Image - Friday (11:15 am)