Methow valley backsliding, King & Pierce counties not up to spec

Just to be clear, the title applies to current smoke levels.

Here is this morning's satellite picture showing areas of smoke (clouds are whiter, smoke is light gray).

Light smoke, mostly from BC drifting over the Puget Sound lowlands is causing some areas of Moderate air around the central Sound. Chelan and Okanogan County fires are fouling up the Methow and nearby communities but thankfully haven't returned those areas to the conditions they saw last week.

Though you can't see it clearly, Vancouver Island fires are sending a plume that is sitting offshore waiting to come inland when the winds turn west/ southwest on Wednesday. The Canadian FireWork model seems to be the only one getting most of these details right, so here's the prediction for Wednesday afternoon (left) and Thursday morning (right), as the winds shift:

 

What this means for western WA
It is possible that air will be compromised in southwest WA and the central Sound on Wednesday, but we're not expecting anything worse than Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. Expect Good air by Thursday morning.

Eastern WA forecast
Except for areas close to major fires, we don't expect large-scale intrusions of smoke on Wednesday. Northeastern WA including Spokane might see a few hours with Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups on Thursday caused by transient plumes, but that will be followed by mostly Good air.

Please check back on Thursday for a Labor Day weekend smoke forecast.

Finally, we'd like to thank our readers for responding to the survey posted yesterday, and for flooding us with notes of appreciation. We will do our best to incorporate your suggestions into the smoke blog and forecasts. Feel free to complete the survey if you haven't already.

8/28/2018 Air Quality Outlook for the North Columbia River Basin

*This outlook was produced through the support of the Okanogan/Wenatchee National Forest and the Incident Management Teams working on local fires to help inform nearby communities of smoke impacts.

A version of the Outlook with live links is available here: LINK

While you're enjoying that clean air, we'd appreciate some feedback

Wow, does anyone remember when we last saw so many green dots across the state's air quality monitoring map? The clouds, wind and drizzle over the weekend got us great bang for the buck and reduced fire activity in the Cascades and also in British Columbia.

Since there is no imminent danger of returning to the terrible conditions we've all endured, we're asking you to please take a moment and send some feedback on this blog. Our aim is to provide the public with wildfire smoke-related air quality information, and we'd like to make sure we're doing that effectively.

This survey will take no more than 5 minutes to complete. Thank you very much!

08/27/2018 Air quality outlook for areas in the North Columbia Basin.

*This outlook was produced through the support of the Okanogan/Wenatchee National Forest and the Incident Management Teams working on local fires to help inform nearby communities of smoke impacts.

Sunday Update for Washington State

The cooler weather, onshore winds, and scattered rain will continue today as the clouds move east.  We should be back to clear skies on Monday afternoon and Tuesday.  Not for long though!  More cloudy and cool weather is expected to roll in on Wednesday.   Thanks to the weather, many Washington residents will continue to see relatively good air quality today and beyond.  However, it can be difficult to assess fire and smoke activity with all these clouds since satellites do not have a clear view.

Most of Western Washington is experiencing Good air quality, but a fire on JBLM has been sending smoke north and causing Moderate to Unhealthy air quality around the Seattle area.  The fire is contained but could continue to generate modest smoke that impacts nearby cities.

Northerly winds are expected on Monday, which could blow a little Canadian smoke into our state, but nothing like we saw earlier this year.  Residents in the Spokane area could also see smoke blow in from Idaho and Montana.  It should be short lived though, since Tuesday's forecast shows westerly winds are expected for the coast and southerly winds for Eastern Washington.

All in all, sporadic rain and shifty winds should keep air quality pretty good in our state, but if you are downwind from a fire you should expect some smoke.

Large Washington Fires:

McLeod, Cougar Creek, and Crescent Mountain in the North/Central Cascades are the largest fires in the state and continue to send smoke to various parts of Central and Eastern Washington.

The Boyds fire in Ferry county and the Horns Mountain fire in Stevens county have been impacting northeastern Washington, including Spokane.

The Maple fire on the southeast side of the Olympic National Park has seen minimal growth (currently 2,150 acres).

The Miriam and Meninick fires continue to generate moderate smoke for Yakima county.

PM2.5 monitors on Sunday (10 am)

8/26/2018 Air Quality Outlook for the Northern Columbia Basin

*This outlook was produced through the support of the Okanogan/Wenatchee National Forest and the Incident Management Teams working on local fires to help inform nearby communities of smoke impacts.

8/25/2018 Air Quality Outlook for areas in the North Columbia River Basin

*This outlook was produced through the support of the Okanogan/Wenatchee National Forest and the Incident Management Teams working on local fires to help inform nearby communities of smoke impacts.

Smoke Update for Washington State

The westerly winds cleared out all that stagnant smoke across the state yesterday, as expected.  Most of us in Washington have been able to get at least a few hours of Good air at times.  We are seeing less severe air quality problems around the state, with more localized patterns coming into play.  There is also some significant rain expected for the North Cascades on Sunday which is always welcome this time of year!

Western Washington

The Vancouver Island fires continue to generate smoke that is causing Moderate to Unhealthy smoky conditions at times around the west and north coastal areas of the Olympic Peninsula.  Port Angeles looks to be getting the worst of it.  Other parts of Western Washington have also been getting intermittent smoke, which is Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.  Thurston, Mason, and Kitsap counties are likely experiencing a mix of light to moderate smoke from the Maple Fire and the Vancouver Island fires.  Snohomish, King, and Pierce counties may also be seeing some of that as well.  Whatcom, Skagit, and Island counties are likely seeing some of the fringes of the BC wildfire smoke plumes.  

This intermittent smoke we are experiencing should be expected through the weekend.  Southwestern counties will likely continue to see the best air quality in the region.

Central & Eastern Washington

There is a large plume of smoke (see below) from BC and Central Washington wildfires over a large portion of Central and Northeastern Washington that is mostly aloft, but the models are showing that air quality is expected to get worse Friday afternoon in Chelan, Okanogan, Ferry, Stevens, Pend Oreille, Spokane, Douglas, Grant, and Lincoln counties.  It's unclear how much of that smoke will mix down to the surface.  The forecast does have most of that clearing out by Saturday morning for Spokane, Lincoln, and Grant counties.  However, Chelan, Douglas and all the Northern counties are set to remain under an air quality alert through the weekend, with Unhealthy air expected.  Yakima county has a couple fires of its own (Miriam and Meninick Pass) which are causing Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups air quality that is expected to continue through the weekend and may even have minor effects on downwind counties.  

There are still a considerable number of fires in the eastern slopes of the Cascades and the Colville National Forest which will send smoke to various parts of Central and Eastern Washington throughout the weekend.   The southeastern counties should continue to see the best air quality in the region.

GOES-East True Color Image - Friday (11:15 am)

  

8/24/2018 Smoke Forecast for the North Columbia Basin area

HEPA air purifiers can remove most smoke from indoor air

Most studies about reducing indoor smoke have used HEPA air purifiers. Some HEPAs are more efficient than others at removing very small particles (PM2.5) including smoke.  Efficiency also depends on how large the volume of the indoor air is and on the rate of outdoor-to-indoor air infiltration (typical houses are quite permeable).  HEPAs have been observed to lower PM2.5 concentrations in homes by 26 to 88% relative to outdoor air.

This comment was coordinated with WDOH.    For more information see:

Barn et al. Portable air cleaners should be at the forefront of the public health response to landscape fire smoke.  Environmental Health (2016)    https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12940-016-0198-9

EPA: Guide to Air Cleaners in the Home, 2nd Edition, Portable Air Cleaners, Furnace and HVAC Filters (July 2018)   https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-07/documents/guide_to_air_cleaners_in_the_home_2nd_edition.pdf