8/25/2018 Air Quality Outlook for areas in the North Columbia River Basin

*This outlook was produced through the support of the Okanogan/Wenatchee National Forest and the Incident Management Teams working on local fires to help inform nearby communities of smoke impacts.

Smoke Update for Washington State

The westerly winds cleared out all that stagnant smoke across the state yesterday, as expected.  Most of us in Washington have been able to get at least a few hours of Good air at times.  We are seeing less severe air quality problems around the state, with more localized patterns coming into play.  There is also some significant rain expected for the North Cascades on Sunday which is always welcome this time of year!

Western Washington

The Vancouver Island fires continue to generate smoke that is causing Moderate to Unhealthy smoky conditions at times around the west and north coastal areas of the Olympic Peninsula.  Port Angeles looks to be getting the worst of it.  Other parts of Western Washington have also been getting intermittent smoke, which is Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.  Thurston, Mason, and Kitsap counties are likely experiencing a mix of light to moderate smoke from the Maple Fire and the Vancouver Island fires.  Snohomish, King, and Pierce counties may also be seeing some of that as well.  Whatcom, Skagit, and Island counties are likely seeing some of the fringes of the BC wildfire smoke plumes.  

This intermittent smoke we are experiencing should be expected through the weekend.  Southwestern counties will likely continue to see the best air quality in the region.

Central & Eastern Washington

There is a large plume of smoke (see below) from BC and Central Washington wildfires over a large portion of Central and Northeastern Washington that is mostly aloft, but the models are showing that air quality is expected to get worse Friday afternoon in Chelan, Okanogan, Ferry, Stevens, Pend Oreille, Spokane, Douglas, Grant, and Lincoln counties.  It's unclear how much of that smoke will mix down to the surface.  The forecast does have most of that clearing out by Saturday morning for Spokane, Lincoln, and Grant counties.  However, Chelan, Douglas and all the Northern counties are set to remain under an air quality alert through the weekend, with Unhealthy air expected.  Yakima county has a couple fires of its own (Miriam and Meninick Pass) which are causing Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups air quality that is expected to continue through the weekend and may even have minor effects on downwind counties.  

There are still a considerable number of fires in the eastern slopes of the Cascades and the Colville National Forest which will send smoke to various parts of Central and Eastern Washington throughout the weekend.   The southeastern counties should continue to see the best air quality in the region.

GOES-East True Color Image - Friday (11:15 am)

  

8/24/2018 Smoke Forecast for the North Columbia Basin area

HEPA air purifiers can remove most smoke from indoor air

Most studies about reducing indoor smoke have used HEPA air purifiers. Some HEPAs are more efficient than others at removing very small particles (PM2.5) including smoke.  Efficiency also depends on how large the volume of the indoor air is and on the rate of outdoor-to-indoor air infiltration (typical houses are quite permeable).  HEPAs have been observed to lower PM2.5 concentrations in homes by 26 to 88% relative to outdoor air.

This comment was coordinated with WDOH.    For more information see:

Barn et al. Portable air cleaners should be at the forefront of the public health response to landscape fire smoke.  Environmental Health (2016)    https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12940-016-0198-9

EPA: Guide to Air Cleaners in the Home, 2nd Edition, Portable Air Cleaners, Furnace and HVAC Filters (July 2018)   https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-07/documents/guide_to_air_cleaners_in_the_home_2nd_edition.pdf

8/23/2018 Air Quality Outlook for the North Columbia Basin

Are there long-term physical effects of wildfire smoke?

There isn’t any  published research yet about long-term physical effects of wildfire smoke on people in affected area communities, and not much about them in wildfire-fighters, either.  However, wildfire-fighters are known to experience chronic lung and systemic inflammation from smoke that probably contributes to development of respiratory diseases in some cases.

Wildfire smoke particulate matter is made of some of the same chemicals that human-caused particulate matter is made of, but there are some chemical differences between them.  Because of the differences and lack of wildfire smoke research, we don't know if the smoke can exacerbate autoimmune diseases like human-caused particulate matter does. 

Weather event on the horizon will push smoke east

The National Weather Service is predicting a transition to cooler temperatures over the next couple of days as westerly winds materialize with the passage of a dry cold front.  As westerly winds pickup tonight, some of the smoke that is over the ocean will pass back over Washington State.  Behind the cold front is the possibility for rain on Sunday in the Cascades with parts of Eastern Washington seeing rain Sunday night into Monday morning.  Unfortunately, there is potential for new wildfire ignitions due to lightning that come along with that storm.

The coastal areas and Southwest Washington should wake up to clean air tomorrow morning, and the rest of Western Washington will follow shortly behind.  Keep in mind that there could still be smoke from Vancouver Island fires that affects Clallam county and smoke from the Maple Fire that affects parts of Kitsap and Mason counties.  Though, that should be minor compared to what has been seen the past few days. The National Weather Service is set to have the Air Quality Alert expire for all of Western Washington tomorrow at noon.

Central and Eastern Washington will likely see smoke make its way back over the state tomorrow, with air quality expected to get worse for awhile.  However, this should be short-lived as westerly flow will continue to bring in some fresh air over the state.  The National Weather Service is set to have the Air Quality Alert expire for most of Central and Eastern Washington at noon on Friday.  The exception is for Chelan, Okanogan, and Ferry counties which will continue to see smoke impacts from nearby fires.  While most of us will enjoy the smoke clearing out, the windy conditions could cause more fire growth to occur.

Check out the Environment Canada smoke forecast for the next 2 days.  Their "Firework" model does a good job of accounting for Canadian smoke.

Environment Canada Smoke Forecast

8/22/2018 Air Quality Outlook for the North Columbia Basin

Too many apples-to-oranges comparisons with Beijing

"Our air is worse than Beijing"
"This is the worst air quality in the world"

Some variant of these claims have been repeated in the past few days. Are they true? Lets make an apples-to-apples comparison and find out.

If we compare conditions across the world right now, then WA probably has the ignoble distinction of being one of the most polluted places. Here's the global AQ map as of 1PM PDT:

Colors are AQI colors (see legend in plot below). South and east Asia are seeing a lot of reds and maroons, which means a lot of people are exposed to Unhealthy or worse air at this point in time. Washington is in the same abyss, air quality wise. Not good.

Now lets see how air quality at a few WA sites compare with normal patterns seen in Beijing and New Delhi year round. Data from those cities are were obtained from air quality monitors at the respective US Embassies, which routinely record very high PM2.5 concentrations. I've defined "normal" as the range between monthly lower and upper quartiles, since the median passes right in the middle of it. This is also known as the interquartile range, or IQR.

The above figure shows how air quality in Seattle, Spokane and Omak have varied from 1 Jan- 20 August 2018, against the backdrop of monthly IQRs in Beijing and Delhi. As can be seen, the latter cities experience terribly compromised air quality primarily in the winter months. And its MUCH worse than what we experience, even during wildfire season. Even though Omak spiked right to the top of Delhi's IQR a few days ago, bear in mind that:

1. Delhi's concentrations are higher than it's own IQRs 25% of the time. Or put another way, Delhi records concentrations higher than Omak's spike, for 3 months of the year.
2. Omak's air is unlikely to remain "Hazardous" for several months. 

In spite of our wintertime temperature inversions and woodsmoke concerns, we're still in far better shape at that time of year.

So stacking the relatively "clean" season in Beijing/ Delhi against our "dirtiest" season is not a proper comparison.

Nevertheless, wildfire smoke- even of relatively short duration- still affects the health of a lot of people. This blog, even the article just below, contains a lot of resources on steps that can be taken to minimize its harmful effects.

Wildfire smoke can cause or worsen health problems.

 

 

Know the Symptoms

What health problems can smoke cause?

• Eye, nose, and throat irritation (burning eyes and runny nose)
• Wheezing, coughing, shortness of breath, and headache
• Aggravation of existing lung, heart and circulatory conditions, including asthma and angina

Who is especially sensitive to smoke? Inhaling smoke is not good for anyone, even healthy people. People most likely to have health problems from breathing smoke include:

• People with lung diseases such as asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), including bronchitis and emphysema.
• People with respiratory infections, such as pneumonia, acute bronchitis, bronchiolitis, colds, or flu.
• People with existing heart or circulatory problems, such as dysrhythmias, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, and angina.
• People with a prior history of heart attack or stroke.
• Infants and children under 18 because their lungs and airways are still developing and they breathe more air per pound of body weight than adults.
• Older adults (over age 65) because they are more likely to have unrecognized heart or lung diseases.
• Pregnant women because both the mother and fetus are at increased risk of health effects.
• People who smoke because they are more likely to already have lower lung function and lung diseases.
• People with diabetes because they are more likely to have an undiagnosed cardiovascular disease.

What can I do to protect myself and my family from outdoor smoke?

• Avoid physical exertion outdoors if smoke is in the air.
• If you have asthma or other lung diseases, make sure you follow your doctor's directions about taking your medicines and follow your asthma management plan. Call your health care provider if your symptoms worsen.
• Stay indoors and keep indoor air as clean as possible. Take the following steps when indoors:   
• Keep windows and doors closed. Track the outside air quality and open your windows for fresh air when the air quality improves. Pay attention to the heat indoors. Close curtains to reduce heat gain during the hottest part of the day. Use fans to circulate the air.
• Run an air conditioner, set it to re-circulate and close the fresh-air intake. Make sure to change the filter regularly.
• Use an air cleaner with a high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter to reduce indoor air pollution, this will reduce the number of irritating fine particles in indoor air. A HEPA filter with charcoal will help remove some of the gases from the smoke. Don’t use an air cleaner that produces ozone. See California’s air cleaning devices for the home fact sheet (PDF).
• Don’t add to indoor pollution. Don’t smoke. Don’t use food broilers, candles, incense, fireplaces, or gas stoves. Don’t vacuum unless your vacuum has a HEPA filter, because vacuuming stirs up particles already inside your home.
  
• Consider leaving the area if the air quality is poor and it's not possible to keep indoor air clean, especially if you or those you are caring for are having health problems or are in a sensitive group.
• For more information about keeping indoor air free of smoke: Improving Ventilation and Indoor Air Quality during Wildfire Smoke Events (PDF).