8/24/2018 Smoke Forecast for the North Columbia Basin area

HEPA air purifiers can remove most smoke from indoor air

Most studies about reducing indoor smoke have used HEPA air purifiers. Some HEPAs are more efficient than others at removing very small particles (PM2.5) including smoke.  Efficiency also depends on how large the volume of the indoor air is and on the rate of outdoor-to-indoor air infiltration (typical houses are quite permeable).  HEPAs have been observed to lower PM2.5 concentrations in homes by 26 to 88% relative to outdoor air.

This comment was coordinated with WDOH.    For more information see:

Barn et al. Portable air cleaners should be at the forefront of the public health response to landscape fire smoke.  Environmental Health (2016)    https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12940-016-0198-9

EPA: Guide to Air Cleaners in the Home, 2nd Edition, Portable Air Cleaners, Furnace and HVAC Filters (July 2018)   https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-07/documents/guide_to_air_cleaners_in_the_home_2nd_edition.pdf

8/23/2018 Air Quality Outlook for the North Columbia Basin

Are there long-term physical effects of wildfire smoke?

There isn’t any  published research yet about long-term physical effects of wildfire smoke on people in affected area communities, and not much about them in wildfire-fighters, either.  However, wildfire-fighters are known to experience chronic lung and systemic inflammation from smoke that probably contributes to development of respiratory diseases in some cases.

Wildfire smoke particulate matter is made of some of the same chemicals that human-caused particulate matter is made of, but there are some chemical differences between them.  Because of the differences and lack of wildfire smoke research, we don't know if the smoke can exacerbate autoimmune diseases like human-caused particulate matter does. 

Weather event on the horizon will push smoke east

The National Weather Service is predicting a transition to cooler temperatures over the next couple of days as westerly winds materialize with the passage of a dry cold front.  As westerly winds pickup tonight, some of the smoke that is over the ocean will pass back over Washington State.  Behind the cold front is the possibility for rain on Sunday in the Cascades with parts of Eastern Washington seeing rain Sunday night into Monday morning.  Unfortunately, there is potential for new wildfire ignitions due to lightning that come along with that storm.

The coastal areas and Southwest Washington should wake up to clean air tomorrow morning, and the rest of Western Washington will follow shortly behind.  Keep in mind that there could still be smoke from Vancouver Island fires that affects Clallam county and smoke from the Maple Fire that affects parts of Kitsap and Mason counties.  Though, that should be minor compared to what has been seen the past few days. The National Weather Service is set to have the Air Quality Alert expire for all of Western Washington tomorrow at noon.

Central and Eastern Washington will likely see smoke make its way back over the state tomorrow, with air quality expected to get worse for awhile.  However, this should be short-lived as westerly flow will continue to bring in some fresh air over the state.  The National Weather Service is set to have the Air Quality Alert expire for most of Central and Eastern Washington at noon on Friday.  The exception is for Chelan, Okanogan, and Ferry counties which will continue to see smoke impacts from nearby fires.  While most of us will enjoy the smoke clearing out, the windy conditions could cause more fire growth to occur.

Check out the Environment Canada smoke forecast for the next 2 days.  Their "Firework" model does a good job of accounting for Canadian smoke.

Environment Canada Smoke Forecast

8/22/2018 Air Quality Outlook for the North Columbia Basin

Too many apples-to-oranges comparisons with Beijing

"Our air is worse than Beijing"
"This is the worst air quality in the world"

Some variant of these claims have been repeated in the past few days. Are they true? Lets make an apples-to-apples comparison and find out.

If we compare conditions across the world right now, then WA probably has the ignoble distinction of being one of the most polluted places. Here's the global AQ map as of 1PM PDT:

Colors are AQI colors (see legend in plot below). South and east Asia are seeing a lot of reds and maroons, which means a lot of people are exposed to Unhealthy or worse air at this point in time. Washington is in the same abyss, air quality wise. Not good.

Now lets see how air quality at a few WA sites compare with normal patterns seen in Beijing and New Delhi year round. Data from those cities are were obtained from air quality monitors at the respective US Embassies, which routinely record very high PM2.5 concentrations. I've defined "normal" as the range between monthly lower and upper quartiles, since the median passes right in the middle of it. This is also known as the interquartile range, or IQR.

The above figure shows how air quality in Seattle, Spokane and Omak have varied from 1 Jan- 20 August 2018, against the backdrop of monthly IQRs in Beijing and Delhi. As can be seen, the latter cities experience terribly compromised air quality primarily in the winter months. And its MUCH worse than what we experience, even during wildfire season. Even though Omak spiked right to the top of Delhi's IQR a few days ago, bear in mind that:

1. Delhi's concentrations are higher than it's own IQRs 25% of the time. Or put another way, Delhi records concentrations higher than Omak's spike, for 3 months of the year.
2. Omak's air is unlikely to remain "Hazardous" for several months. 

In spite of our wintertime temperature inversions and woodsmoke concerns, we're still in far better shape at that time of year.

So stacking the relatively "clean" season in Beijing/ Delhi against our "dirtiest" season is not a proper comparison.

Nevertheless, wildfire smoke- even of relatively short duration- still affects the health of a lot of people. This blog, even the article just below, contains a lot of resources on steps that can be taken to minimize its harmful effects.

Wildfire smoke can cause or worsen health problems.

 

 

Know the Symptoms

What health problems can smoke cause?

• Eye, nose, and throat irritation (burning eyes and runny nose)
• Wheezing, coughing, shortness of breath, and headache
• Aggravation of existing lung, heart and circulatory conditions, including asthma and angina

Who is especially sensitive to smoke? Inhaling smoke is not good for anyone, even healthy people. People most likely to have health problems from breathing smoke include:

• People with lung diseases such as asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), including bronchitis and emphysema.
• People with respiratory infections, such as pneumonia, acute bronchitis, bronchiolitis, colds, or flu.
• People with existing heart or circulatory problems, such as dysrhythmias, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, and angina.
• People with a prior history of heart attack or stroke.
• Infants and children under 18 because their lungs and airways are still developing and they breathe more air per pound of body weight than adults.
• Older adults (over age 65) because they are more likely to have unrecognized heart or lung diseases.
• Pregnant women because both the mother and fetus are at increased risk of health effects.
• People who smoke because they are more likely to already have lower lung function and lung diseases.
• People with diabetes because they are more likely to have an undiagnosed cardiovascular disease.

What can I do to protect myself and my family from outdoor smoke?

• Avoid physical exertion outdoors if smoke is in the air.
• If you have asthma or other lung diseases, make sure you follow your doctor's directions about taking your medicines and follow your asthma management plan. Call your health care provider if your symptoms worsen.
• Stay indoors and keep indoor air as clean as possible. Take the following steps when indoors:   
• Keep windows and doors closed. Track the outside air quality and open your windows for fresh air when the air quality improves. Pay attention to the heat indoors. Close curtains to reduce heat gain during the hottest part of the day. Use fans to circulate the air.
• Run an air conditioner, set it to re-circulate and close the fresh-air intake. Make sure to change the filter regularly.
• Use an air cleaner with a high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter to reduce indoor air pollution, this will reduce the number of irritating fine particles in indoor air. A HEPA filter with charcoal will help remove some of the gases from the smoke. Don’t use an air cleaner that produces ozone. See California’s air cleaning devices for the home fact sheet (PDF).
• Don’t add to indoor pollution. Don’t smoke. Don’t use food broilers, candles, incense, fireplaces, or gas stoves. Don’t vacuum unless your vacuum has a HEPA filter, because vacuuming stirs up particles already inside your home.
  
• Consider leaving the area if the air quality is poor and it's not possible to keep indoor air clean, especially if you or those you are caring for are having health problems or are in a sensitive group.
• For more information about keeping indoor air free of smoke: Improving Ventilation and Indoor Air Quality during Wildfire Smoke Events (PDF).

Ash Falls in Seattle ... Some Clearing in Southeast Washington

There were several reports of ash in the greater Seattle area yesterday, probably from the Cougar Creek and/or Crescent Mountain fire.  This can be disconcerting, but keep in mind that the amount of ash we are seeing in the Seattle area isn't a major health concern.  The very fine particles that you can't see (PM2.5) are what can cause respiratory and other health problems in these conditions because they get deep into the lungs.  Western Washington will continue to experience Unhealthy to Very Unhealthy air quality today.  Strong westerly winds are predicted for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.  Those winds should push most of this lingering smoke out of Western Washington on Thursday.  The coastal region could see some relief on Wednesday evening.  Keep in mind, though, that there is a large area of smoke off the coast that will likely blow back over us on Wednesday.

Southeast Washington saw some relief last night because the northeasterly winds carried the smoke towards the rest of the state, with air quality still in the Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range there.  Smoke forecast models predict that the area of relief in Southeast Washington will continue to see some modest clearing.  We could see air quality get a bit better today from Yakima to Spokane, but it will be short-lived as smoke is predicted to push back into the region tomorrow.  In general, areas in Northeastern Washington should expect to see more smoke throughout the week, despite any clearing that will occur today.

Residents in Chelan, Douglas, and Okanogan counties are so close to multiple fires.  So, even with expected clearing for much of the state later this week, those counties should expect continued smoky conditions.

PM2.5  (Smoke) - Tuesday at 9 a.m.

MODIS - Terra Satellite Image for Tuesday (~11am)

8/21/2018 Air Quality Outlook for the North Columbia Basin

North Columbia Basin Smoke Outlook for 8/20/18

Tell us plainly: when will the smoke clear?

Harsh reality first: other than some temporary relief in some places experiencing strong winds today (see maps below), no significant smoke clearing expected before Wednesday for most of the state.
After that, Western WA starts to clear on Thursday, eastern WA on Friday.

Widespread Unhealthy conditions are expected statewide, with all of eastern WA only reporting Very Unhealthy and Hazardous air. Western Washington is littered with Good to Very Unhealthy conditions. Some strong winds are expected today (see areas in National Weather Service maps below) and while this will alleviate the smoke for a while, they also increase fire danger substantially.

Medium range weather models suggest southwest winds will bring some clean air to western WA by Thursday and in eastern WA by Friday, perhaps keeping it all clean through the weekend, except close to major fires.

Please note that the map of air quality monitors above has been slow to refresh, given the high demand for data. The Dept of Ecology's air quality monitoring data map is a good alternative.

North Columbia Basin Smoke Outlook for 8/19/18

Very Large Smoke Plumes Across Pacific Northwest

Very large smoke plumes can be seen all across the Pacific Northwest.  NOAA describes it as such:

"The ongoing wildfire activity affecting portions of the western United States and western Canada continues to produce enormous amounts of smoke that covers most of Canada and the northern portion of the United States. The areas of densest smoke extend from western and southern British Columbia across Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and southern Quebec in Canada and northern California, southern Oregon, all of the northern border states from Washington to Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri in the United States."

MODIS Aqua Satellite Image - Saturday Afternoon

PM2.5 monitoring has shown Good to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups air quality across Western, South-Central, and South-East Washington counties today.  Continued Unhealthy to Hazardous conditions have been monitored in the Central and North-Eastern counties.  Conditions look to get progressively worse for western Washington as well as most other counties over the next few days.

Please protect you and your family from smoke if it is impacting your area.  The Department of Health has relevant information here.

While waiting for BC smoke scene #2, lets compare this year's smoke with past years

Yes, you read that right. Lotsa BC smoke poised to overrun the state again. But first things first.

Here is a comparison of how the 2018 wildfire smoke impacts compare with past years.

The gray shading reflects the typical range of air quality conditions over the last 11 wildfire seasons. In more precise techno-talk, it is the median through the 95th percentile. You can see roughly when each area experienced its smoke episodes in the past. The black lines show how 2018 has progressed thus far. The background shading shows the intensity of smoke.

So all of western Washington for example, experienced smoke impacts for longer in past summers (mostly 2017), than 2018. But that pales in comparison with what Okanogan and Chelan counties have routinely endured in the past: in fact, this year has been a little mellower for them, although still pretty brutal. Similar conclusions can be drawn about other areas.

What's the take home message? That someone else had/ has it worse, so quit complaining and tough it out? Far from it! Wildfire smoke impacts, even at low levels are detrimental to human health and our readers are strongly encouraged to familiarize themselves with the health-protection resources on this blog.

What about that BC smoke?
This is where things get ugly and stay ugly through mid- week or so. This afternoon's satellite picture shows a lot of smoke overhead, gradually moving south-southwest (red dots are fires).

LOTS of smoke to the north and the forecast shows it engulfing the state by tomorrow. Here's one model's prediction surface level smoke on Sunday night:

Chances are slim that there will be a natural clean air shelter anywhere in the state through Wednesday. All the more reason to be diligent about minimizing time outdoors, donning N95 face masks, running A/C's in recirculation mode (temperatures are likely to soar early this week but smoke aloft will shave off a few degrees), or investing in an air purifier which does not produce indoor ozone.

Pronóstico de Humo para el Cuenca de Columbia Norte 18/8

North Columbia Basin Smoke Outlook for 8/18/18

8/17/2018 Wildfire in Washington Update

Lightning over the last 24 hours has ignited a few new fires in the state although the story for Washington fires remains the large Cougar Creek, Crescent Mtn., and McLeod fires in the Okanogan/Wenatchee National Forest. Crescent Mtn in particular became active yesterday and spotted into a new area. Summaries of fires shown below. Much more info for most is available here: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/?state=49 .
Smoke from these fires continues to degrade air quality from Winthrop and Twisp, south to Entiat and Wenatchee, and east to Republic, Colville, and Inchelium. For the time being, meteorological conditions have kept smoke from fires in Canada north of the border but the fires in Canada are still large, numerous, and active and it would seem that smoke is likely to head toward Washington again in a few days. So if you're in an area that is experiencing good air quality this is your chance to get out and go for that run or take the kids out to play because conditions look like they will change back to smoky again by late in the day on Sunday.

Westside/Olympic Penninsula
Maple. 10 mi N of Hoodsport, WA. Start 8/4. Monitor/Confine/Full Suppression. Cause: Unknown. 1,464 acres (+100). 52% containment. Moderate fire behavior. Timber. T&E habitat threatened. Road, trail and area closures.

Yakima Area
Miriam. 25 mi SE of Mt Rainier. Start 7/30. Full Suppression. Cause: Unknown. 2,650 acres (+250). 10% containment. Active fire behavior. Timber. Steep terrain. Evacuations in effect. White Pass Ski Resort and T&E species habitat threatened. Road, trail and area closures.

New: Winnier Road. 13 mi SE of Toppenish, WA. Start 08/16. Full Suppression. Cause: Lightning. 349 acres. Lined. Limited information available.

Methow Valley/Chelan/Entiat Area

McLeod. 8 mi N of Mazama, WA. Start 8/11. Monitor/Full Suppression. Cause: Lightning. 3,948 acres (+1,148). 0% containment. Active fire behavior. Timber. Structures threatened.

Crescent Mtn. 16 mi W of Winthrop WA. Start 7/29. Monitor/Confine/Full Suppression. Cause: Unknown. 19,700 acres (+2,824). 37% containment. Moderate fire behavior. Timber. Structures, recreation and timber threatened. Evacuation notices. Road, trail and area closures. 

Cougar Creek. 25 mi W of Chelan, WA. Start 7/28. Full Suppression. Cause: Lightning. 34,482 acres (+2,874). 35% containment. Active fire behavior. Timber and slash. Evacuation notices. Area restrictions, road, trail and area closures. Structures, cultural resources, timber, infrastructure and recreation threatened.

Colville Area

Boyds. 3 mi W of Kettle Falls, WA. Start 08/11. Full Suppression. Cause: Unknown. 3,065 acres (+65). 27% containment. Active fire behavior. Timber and grass. Evacuations in effect. Major highway closures and structures threatened.

Horns Mountain. 9 mi NE of Orient, WA. Start 08/11. Full Suppression. Cause: Lightning. 1,293 acres (+105). 15% containment. Moderate fire behavior. Timber. Timber threatened.

Pronóstico de Humo para el Cuenca de Columbia Norte 17/8

North Columbia Basin Smoke Outlook for 8/17/18