WA keeps accumulating smoke through Thursday

Puget Sounds Lowlands
Lots of social media pictures of pretty sunsets and crescent moon rises over western WA, courtesy of Oregon and California smoke. Adding to the mix is the Maple Fire, close to Hamma Hamma in the Olympic Peninsula- clearly seen sending a plume of smoke toward Seattle on yesterday's satellite picture.

Thus far most smoke has remained above or to the east of western WA but that seems to be changing. Between Tuesday & Thursday, the Puget Sound lowlands will likely see some combination of smoke from the fires mentioned above, and those along the Cascades' eastern foothills. Not much wind movement until late Thursday to flush things out, so expect conditions to mostly vary between Good and Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. Some periods of Unhealthy air are likely closer to fires. Good air is expected Friday- Saturday.

Whatcom and Skagit counties
Periodic east winds could bring in smoke from fires in the North Cascades, causing Moderate and USG air on occasion. Higher terrain might also see some California/ Oregon smoke mixing down.

Eastern WA
Sadly, with so many fires and so little wind, Unhealthy air will be quite common in addition to the oppressive heat. No respite through Friday at least, but that smoke clearing comes at a cost: a strong front passing through will worsen fire danger and spread.

Smoke above western WA, smoke everywhere in eastern WA

Air monitors are showing Good air in western Washington for now. Enjoy it while it lasts. Webcams, satellites and upper air data show that smoke from fires in southern Oregon and N. California is already overhead.

Models show some of this reaching the surface, particularly higher terrain in the coming days and air quality could degrade to USG by mid-week.

The forecast is this work week is for hot temperatures and light winds so smoke will not be flushing out easily. If it is any consolation, the upper level smoke blanket will (1) make the heat a tad bit more bearable by shaving off a few degrees, and (2) make for pretty sunsets.

Sunday evening saw a bunch of lightning strikes in the Cascades and we don't yet know the full extent of the damage and where any additional smoke might flow.

Eastern Washington is being hammered by smoke from multiple sources, described in Friday's blog post below. The Methow valley's air has hardly been cleaner than USG all weekend, but that hasnt prevented everyone from taking in what can be seen of the scenery☺.

Assuming smoke production from these fires continues, expect conditions to worsen as the week proceeds. Areas close to fires could see Very Unhealthy air while other areas will vary between Moderate and Unhealthy.

Ozone levels are likely to be high around the Tri Cities Tuesday & Wednesday due to wind patterns, likely worsened a bit by the presence of smoke.

Take home message: it is shaping up to be a challenging week, smoke wise. Please take a moment to familiarize yourself with the health-protection resources on this blog. If you dont have an A/C that can be operated in recirculation mode when it is smoky outside, use an indoor fan instead of opening windows to cool down your home.

8/3/2018 Status of Wildfires in Washington

August 3, 2018

Two wildfires in Washington in particular - Cougar Creek and Gilbert/Crescent Mtn. are emitting significant amounts of smoke which is then combining with smoke from other fires in Washington and Canada to cause air quality problems for northern parts of the Columbia Basin from Chelan and Twisp, to Wellpinit and Colville. The Miriam fire near White Pass and the new Bannock Lakes fire in Glacier Peak Wilderness are worth watching in the coming days. More information on fires in Washington is shown below with links for even more detail when available. 

New Fires

Saddle Mountain. 25 mi S of Moses Lake, WA. Start 8/2. Full Suppression. Cause: Human. 1,000 acres. 49% containment. Minimal fire behavior. Grass and brush. Agricultural and power line infrastructure threatened. Road closure.

Angel Springs. 7 mi NE of Davenport, WA. Start 8/2. Full Suppression. Cause: Unknown. 600 acres. 0% containment. Timber and bush. Structures threatened. Evacuations in effect.  http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2018/aug/03/fire-north-of-reardan-grows-to-600-acres/

Bannock Lakes. In Glacier Peak Wilderness between Suiattle Pass and Blankenship Mountain. Approximately 7 miles northwest of Holden Village. 20 acres. Monitoring, no team assigned. Burning slowly in heavy timber in inaccessible terrain. Pacific Crest Trail closures in effect.  https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/okawen/news-events/?cid=FSEPRD590255

Ongoing Fires

Miriam. 25 mi SE of Mt Rainier. Start 7/30. Full Suppression. Cause: Lightning. 675 acres (+445). 0% containment. Active fire behavior. Timber. Steep terrain. White Pass Ski Resort and T&E species habitat threatened. Evacuations in effect. Road, trail, and area closures. https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/6066/

Cougar Creek. 25 mi W of Chelan, WA. Start 7/29. Full Suppression. Cause: Lightning. 3,614 acres (+2,055). 0% containment. Extreme fire behavior. Timber. Road and trail closures. Structures, cultural, recreation threatened. https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/6053/

Gilbert/Crescent Mtn. 16 mi W of Winthrop WA. Start 7/29. Point Zone Protection. Cause: Lightning. 5,000 acres (+3,000). 0% containment. Extreme fire behavior. Structures, recreation, and timber threatened. Evacuations in effect. https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/6069/

Sheep Creek. 5 mi NW of North Port, WA. Start 7/30. Full Suppression. Cause: Unknown. 249 acres (+103). 5% containment. Extreme fire behavior. Timber. Steep terrain. Structures, commercial logging, radio repeater site, and lookout tower threatened. Road and area closures. https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/6088/

Smoky Conditions Across NorthEast Washington

Smoke was clearly visible from local fires yesterday, not a good sign of things to come.

VIIRS Imagery from Thurday Afternoon

People across northern Washington, from Omak to the Spokane tribe, woke up to Unhealthy air quality this morning.   Air has even degraded to Very Unhealthy at times, due to smoke from multiple fires being carried east.  

  

PM2.5 Monitors - Friday Morning

Unfortunately, windy conditions will persist throughout the day, which will likely cause more fire growth and generate even more smoke.  The winds will have the benefit of momentarily clearing out smoke at times, but probably not for long.  The image below shows the path that smoke is expected to travel today, starting at the fire locations shown as red squares.  You can see how the area around the Spokane Tribe Reservation is being hit by multiple plumes!

HYSPLIT Forward Trajectory Forecasts from Fire Locations - Friday Morning

Winds are expected to die down over the weekend, as temperatures increase.  This means that smoke should disperse from Eastern Washington late today but people in North-Central Washington will likely see smoke persist locally around the large fires through the weekend and experience Unhealthy air quality at times.  It's only early August, so this could be just the beginning of persistent smoky conditions.

8/1/2018 Status of Wildfires in Washington

August 1, 2018

Most of the smoke impacts in Washington so far this year have originated from wildfires outside of the state but that is changing as a few local wildfires of some significance develop. One fire in particular is beginning to cause problems - the town of Chelan is experiencing air quality impacts from the Cougar Creek fire today and evacuations are in effect near Entiat. (More info. on Cougar Creek fire can be found here: https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/okawen/news-events/?cid=FSEPRD589873 )

Cougar Creek Fire. Credit: Don Strand, Fire Behavior Analyst

Fires of Note in Washington right now:

New Fires 

Milepost 90. Wishram, WA. Start 7/31. Full Suppression. Cause: Unknown. 10,000 acres. 20% containment. Active fire behavior. Grass and brush. Evacuations in place.

Ongoing Fires

Cougar Creek. 25 mi W of Chelan, WA. Start 7/29. Full Suppression. Cause: Lightning. 803 acres (+453). 0% containment. Extreme fire behavior. Timber. Trail closures. Structures, cultural, recreation threatened.

Chelan Hills. 2 mi E of Chelan, WA. Start 7/27. Full Suppression. Cause: Unknown. 1,842 acres (+0). 97% containment. Minimal fire behavior. Grass, brush, and timber.  

Warner Gulch. 11 mi SW of Asotin, WA. Start 7/28. Full Suppression. Cause: Unknown. 470 acres. 85% containment. Minimal fire behavior. Grass and brush. Community of Cloverland Ridge, T&E species habitat, timber, wildlife, and agriculture threatened.

HWY 24 Command. 17 mi E of Yakima, WA. Start 7/30. Full Suppression. Cause: Unknown. 1,800 acres (+0). 60% containment. Active fire behavior. Grass and brush. Road and Area Closures.

Sheep Creek. 5 mi NW of North Port, WA. Start 7/30. Full Suppression. Cause: Unknown. 146 acres (+26). 0% containment. Extreme fire behavior. Spotting. Timber. Steep terrain. Timber resources threatened. Dozer line around much of the fire. Finishing line on E side.

Lake Wallula. 5 mi E of Umatilla, WA. Start 7/30. Full Suppression. Cause: Unknown. 12,462 acres. 96% containment. Minimal fire behavior. Grass and brush. Last report on morning briefing unless significant activity occurs.

Important Note

The list of fires above and the map below comes from the local wildland fire Interagency Coordination Center (https://gacc.nifc.gov/nwcc/) which tracks large fires (100+ acres in timber or 300+ acres in grass/brush) and/or incidents with a Type 1 or 2 incident management team assigned. Small fires or new fires won’t show up on their list.

Smoke cleaning cycle in progress. Slow improvement in eastern WA

You've gotta see this in action!

Satellite picture around 10:30AM Tuesday shows smoke ahead of and clear conditions behind the well-defined northwest-southeast oriented frontal boundary over western WA.


Next satellite at about 1:30PM shows how the front pushed further east, clearing smoke in its wake.


Western WA has mostly Good air now, though a new fire on Harstine Island sent light smoke toward Tacoma last evening. This is not expected to continue much longer as crews are reportedly making good progress with this ~20 acre fire. Forecast for western WA is for mostly Good air through the weekend, barring new fires.

Forecast for eastern WA

Gradual clearing has already commenced, with more green dots (= Good air) appearing on the map. Wind speeds will ramp up Wednesday & Thursday, elevating fire growth concerns. Today's satellite pictures show smoke from fires in BC, Okanogan and Chelan Counties spilling lots of smoke into eastern WA. Stronger winds will dilute these somewhat, but some smoke is expected. Here's what the Forest Service's BlueSky smoke model is predicting for Friday (darker red = more smoke; a fire near the Methow Valley is not reflected in this).

Forecast is for mostly Good to air further from the fires through about Sunday, while locations closer to the fires shown above could see conditions deteriorate to Moderate or even USG levels. 

The atmosphere has started a self-clean cycle

Western Washingtonians awoke to cleaner air today as marine air started to displace accumulated smoke and usher in a cool-down. The Siberian, Californian and Oregonian smoke taps are being throttled down. All fine particle pollution monitors west of the Cascades have dropped down to Good levels this morning. North Bend still has Moderate air but is clearing out rapidly. This welcome cleaning cycle is poised to reach eastern WA by late today, but there is a caveat. Read on.

Yesterday's satellite picture overlaid with air quality data (Green= Good; Yellow= Moderate) shows smoke from various sources lingering over much of the state, giving rise to Moderate air in many places.

Forecast for western WA
The good news is that we don't expect a return to hazy skies within the next week, as long range forecasts indicate cooler-than-normal temperatures and the possibility of rain in western WA and the Cascades within the next 5-7 days. Yessss!

Eastern WA forecast
The weather pattern shift will indeed help flush out lingering smoke over the next two days, but the catch is that strong winds starting late tonight will enhance fire danger. Depending on fire growth, areas of USG air are possible over the next two days, particularly close to fires. Not expecting areas further from fires to deteriorate beyond Moderate between now and Thursday. Good news is that there wont be a return to hot and dry conditions; cooler temperatures late this week will aid firefighting efforts. Good air is looming on the horizon.

Light smoke over western Washington. It gets worse before it gets better

The light smoke blanketing much of eastern Washington has started to bleed west of the Cascades, further exacerbated by some fairly new fires in particular the Wrong Creek fire close to Mount Rainier. Tacoma, Puyallup and Auburn saw Moderate air on Saturday mostly due to the latter, and North Bend is currently experiencing Moderate air.

Here's the map of lightning over the last 24 hours. Thunderstorms in the Cascades on Saturday might have sparked off new fires but we don't have a handle on those yet. A red flag warning is in effect for the Cascades from now through 11PM on Monday, so fires will likely grow.

Expect a very hot, dry and relatively wind-less Sunday and Monday statewide. What this means for smoke Sunday and Monday:

King, Pierce and Snohomish Counties

Winds will be driven by terrain, meaning smoke will likely drain into communities along the Cascade foothills and perhaps closer to some of the larger cities overnight. Light amounts of that Siberian/ BC smoke overhead may mix to the surface during the day, more so at higher elevations. Expect Moderate air at times, though pockets of USG cannot be ruled out. Air should be mostly Good further west of the Cascades.

Most of eastern WA

Siberian smoke continues to cause Moderate/ USG air in much of eastern WA, with fires along the BC border, the Chelan Hills fire and other smaller fires also contributing. This is likely to continue through Tuesday, with any new fires adding more smoke to the mix. Some areas of Unhealthy air are possible.

When will it clear?

A wind shift and cool down happens in western WA on Tuesday, commencing a slow removal of smoke. Eastern WA has to wait until Wednesday. Winds are expected to be strong during the transition, raising fire growth concerns even as smoke flushes out.

Eurasian, Siberian, Alaskan and BC fires sending smoke over much of the northern US

Long range transport of wildfire smoke in full cry.

Most of Eastern WA has seen Moderate air since Thursday evening when smoke plumes from the north moved over the state. The Cascades has kept the smoke from reaching western WA thus far.

A satellite product showing fine particles throughout the atmosphere (known as Aerosol Optical Depth) looks like this. Yellow  --> Orange --> red = increasing smoke. Lots more smoke sitting to our north!

Forecast for eastern WA

Models suggest that this pattern of northerly flow will continue for a few more days and some of this smoke will continue to mix to the surface. Expect Moderate air during the night and USG-ish during the day throughout much of eastern WA. This is because nighttime temperature inversions act as a lid over the lower atmosphere and prevent smoke aloft mixing to the surface, although smoke already at the surface will continue to linger. More smoke will mix down during daytime.

Areas close to some of the many smaller fires could experience worse conditions. Please take note of the health precautions mentioned on this website.

Tri Cities Ozone

Conditions on Friday and Saturday are conducive for ozone formation, and might be slightly aided by some smoke. Lots of visitors expected at the boat races this weekend, likely adding to the traffic emissions. Moderate to USG ozone levels are very likely, so please do your part to reduce ozone- forming pollutants.

Western WA forecast

Some hints that winds might drive a bit of smoke west of the Cascades. Not expecting conditions to deteriorate beyond Moderate over the weekend. Any smoke that mixes down to the surface isnt expected to dissipate much until Tuesday. 

Smoke to south, smoke to the north, smoke to the east and then some ozone

First things first. No major smoke impacts in the state right now and air is mostly Good, although there are areas of Moderate air close to fires in eastern WA and over western WA this morning. Here's yesterday's satellite picture overlaid with air monitoring data

Smoke to the south
Mainly from fires in southwestern Oregon, this smoke will remain to our south for the next few days.

Smoke to the north
The same northerly windflow that keeps the Oregon smoke at bay will push the Siberian wildfire smoke closer to Washington. As can be seen above, the northern BC air quality monitors didnt show very poor air yesterday, so a lot of this smoke might just remain aloft. However this morning's readings and satellite pictures suggest some smoke over western Washington, leading to Moderate air. Winds seem to move most of the smoke east of the Cascades but since none of the forecast models are seeing this smoke as yet, it is hard to say how much of it will mix to the surface. Expect air over the metro areas to be a mix of Good, Moderate and Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups through Friday at least.

The northerly flow will last through the weekend so the potential for Siberian smoke- depending on how much of it is present to our north- remains a risk, particularly in eastern WA. Winds shift a bit by Sunday and there might be enough of a southerly vector to transport some Oregon smoke into Western WA by then. Bears watching.

Smoke to the east
Several fires have been detected. One near the Okanogan County/ British Columbia border will likely be sending smoke into the Omak and Methow areas for a few more days. Expect periods of Moderate and USG air.

And finally, elevated ozone levels were observed in the Tri Cities yesterday (minimally influenced by wildfire smoke) and could be present again today. More on that topic in a newspaper article from a few days ago.