This smoke is trying to show us who's boss. Even when its days are numbered

When the Canadian smoke model forecast some smoke in Seattle this morning, we thought it was over-doing the east winds. Turns out it wasn't. Smoke from the Jolly Mountain and Norse Peak fire are now being transported to western WA. Today's satellite picture has too many clouds to see the smoke clearly, but a look at last afternoon's satellite image tells the story.


Seattle-ites are now being exposed to conditions similar to what the eastern foothills of the Cascades has been seeing for the last few days. Here's a plot of fine particle pollution levels at a few comparative sites.


Notice the spike in western WA this morning: this happens when smoke aloft mixes down when the overnight temperature inversion breaks in the morning.

It is expected that these conditions will be with us until mid morning on Sunday. The I-5 corridor from Mount Vernon down to Vancouver, WA will see air varying between Good and Unhealthy, with poor air at night and slight improvements in the afternoon. Smoke may may push a little further west, possibly leading to Moderate conditions in communities on the eastern foothills of the Olympics. The Eagle Creek fire will continue to impact southwestern WA communities causing Unhealthy air in several places.

Winds shift on Sunday morning and slowly but surely beat the smoke into submission by evening, showing who the REAL boss is. Wetting rains are expected in the Cascades so smoke production is likely to be diminished afterward.

Eagle Creek Fire Smoke Outlook 16 Sept 2017

North Central Washington Smoke Outlook for 16 Sept 2017

Central Washington Smoke Outlook for 16 Sept 2017

9/15/2017 Air quality forecast for areas near the Eagle Creek fire in the Columbia River Gorge

Click here for a version of the Outlook with live links

One last hurrah for wildfire smoke this weekend

If you haven't heard, fall weather is nearly upon us.  While this means chilly temperatures and saying goodbye to the summer gear, the upside is that fire activity should reduce significantly.  Smoke may linger a bit through the weekend but this should be the last hurrah for wildfire smoke in most locations.

The National Weather Service is issuing an Air Quality Alert for Central and Eastern Washington which will expire on Monday morning.  However, several counties will see relief sooner and NWS will end the AQA early for those locations as conditions improve.  Sunday night and Monday morning will bring rain to Western Washington and other west-facing mountainous areas, but the eastern Cascades probably won't see much more than a sprinkle.

Much of Eastern Washington should expect air quality to vary from Moderate to Unhealthy today, but improve slowly through the weekend.  Winds from the east have been bringing in smoke from BC and Montana fires, which hit Spokane yesterday and will continue to pester residents in Eastern Washington today.  Winds should die down a little on Saturday but expect some smoke to linger potentially through Sunday.  With the chilly temperatures, low mixing heights, and low winds on Saturday, there will be some smoke drainage into valley towns.  Sunday will bring winds from the south and smoke should clear out then for much of Eastern Washington.

Central Washington air is still Unhealthy or worse, especially Klickitat, Kittitas, and Yakima counties.  Hopefully this improves a bit through the weekend as fire activity reduces.  Though, you may have to wait until the end of the weekend to see real relief, especially since smoke will continue to drain into the valleys from local fires.  Some areas in Okanogan and Chelan counties will likely continue to see air that is Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups due to smoke from the Diamond Creek fire.

Clark and Skamania counties will continue to see smoke impacts from the nearby fires in Oregon through today.  Most of the rest of Western Washington shouldn't see any smoke at the ground. Though, there is potential for a couple smoke plumes to pass overhead and potentially impact mountainous areas today as winds continue to blow from the east.

And now for the pretty picture: regional smoke seen this morning by the GOES-16 satellite.  

Central Washington Smoke Outlook 15 Sept 2017

North Central Washington Smoke Outlook

Central Washington smoke under cooler conditions

With the northerly winds over central and eastern Washington today, downwind impacts of wildfire smoke will be of concern.

Of the highest concern are the Upper and Lower Yakima River Valleys, the Methow Valley, and the lower Columbia Basin.  For today, expect downwind communities in the above mentioned valleys to experience Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups to Very Unhealthy for most to today through tomorrow morning.

After the winds die down, we can expect fire growth to have occurred, which means more smoldering, especially as cooler temps prevail.  Wildfire smoke under cool conditions causes the smoke to gather in valleys overnight and will accumulate until the sun heats the air and smoke, lofting the smoke up.

Expect the Colombia Basin, Okanogan, Chelan, Douglas, Kittitas, Yakima and Klickitat Counties will have compromised or diminished air quality once the northerly wind slows down.

Central Washington Smoke Outlook 14 Sept 2017