Monday, September 11, 2017
Sunday, September 10, 2017
Washington State Fire and Smoke September 10, 2017
Washington State Fire and Smoke Update
Issued: September 10, 2017
Prepared by R. Graw, USDA Forest Service
Current Conditions (Sunday afternoon):
Currently, there are 11 large fires burning in Washington, as shown in Figure 1, and listed in Table 1. Three of these fires are over 10,000 acres, with the Diamond Creek being the largest, and Norse Peak and Jolly Mountain being the second and third largest, respectively. Norse Peak fire (not labeled on the map) is next to the much smaller American Fire. The Jolly Mountain Fire (also not labeled) is located over the "W" in the word "Washington" on the map below. The most active fires yesterday were Norse Peak and Jolly Mountain. The Bridge Creek fire is now 98% contained. The Uno Peak and Ferry Point fires, which lie on the north side of Lake Chelan, have merged into a single fire.
Figure 1. Large Fire Map (Sunday, September 10, 2017)
Table 1. Summary of Large Fires Burning in Washington
Air quality was also greatly improved state-wide today as illustrated in Figure 3. As of 2 pm on Sunday afternoon, most of the state was experiencing good air quality. Moderate levels of smoke were present over south central and a pocket of eastern Washington and in Seattle. Unhealthy levels of air quality occurred only in White Salmon, due to the fires in the Columbia River Gorge.
Monday September 11, 2017:
On Monday, a weak ridge of high pressure will try to build into the state. Fortunately, this ridge of pressure will not be nearly as strong as the one we experienced over the Labor Day weekend.
Figure 3 illustrates the 24-hour average conditions for the period ending at 5 pm on Monday. Smoke is expected to impact central and eastern Washington which lie to the east of the Norse Peak and Jolly Mountain Fires, and in Methow Valley and Tonasket areas. Yakima, Cle-Elum, and Wenatchee are likley to experience smokey conditions. At times, smoke will extend as far as Richland and Kennwick and parts of the Columbia Basin. Additionally some smoke is expected in the very northeast corner of the state. The model did not, however, detect the fire in the Columbia River Gorge which caused unhealthy levels of smoke in White Salmon today. Easterly winds are expected in the Columbia River Gorge tomorrow which will transport smoke into Vancouver/Portland Metropolitan Area. Other than that, most of western Washington can expect good air quality on Monday.
Figure 3. Model-Predicted 24-Hour Average Smoke Impacts for the Period Ending at 5 pm on Monday - September 11, 2017
Tuesday September 12, 2017
On Tuesday, the weak ridge will move out of the state as another low pressure system approaches. The overall smoke pattern on Tuesday will be very similar to Monday, except for the Columbia River Gorge, where west wind is expected, bringing smoke back to White Salmon and the eastern portion of the Gorge. The maximum hourly concentrations of smoke are illustrated in Figure 4, in a relative sense. Thus, areas of dark red will experience the heaviest smoke and areas in pink will experience light smoke. Please note that again the fire in the Columbia River Gorge and consequently smoke from this fire are not illustrated on this figure.
Figure 4. Model-Predicted Maximum Hourly Smoke on Tuesday September 12, 2017
Saturday, September 9, 2017
Friday, September 8, 2017
Last bit of smoke holding on in western WA; limited relief en route east of the Cascades
The fact that the Pacific Northwest is the smokiest part of the country should come as no surprise to most, given the # of wildfires and the not-so-cooperative weather we've been having. Here's how we stacked up nationally yesterday, with the dot colors explained in the map legend above. Grey shading indicates smoke plumes of varying density.
An aside: if you're wondering how on earth west coast smoke could impact the east coast, bear in mind that plumes have been observed to circle the globe in about two weeks.
What is that smoke still doing in western WA?
Overstaying it's welcome for sure! A few green dots have appeared on the real-time monitoring map and that trend is set to continue today as light on-shore winds persist. Reason air quality hasn't yet gone all green is because (1) on-shore winds are very light (<5 mph) so ventilation is limited, and (2) some light Oregon/ California smoke hanging aloft has likely mixed down. Balloon data from the Washington coast show the inversion is much weaker than 24 hours ago, but still present.
Here's how several representative monitors across western WA have trended in the last 2 days. Improvements through noon yesterday and then some stalling:
An all-green western WA is expected later today and will stay that way through Sunday, possibly Monday. If models have it right, Tuesday is looking ripe for some smoke along the I-5 corridor. Please stay tuned.
Will it really improve east of the Cascades?
Yes, a little. But not for long. There are fewer Hazardous/ Very Unhealthy spots on the monitoring map compared to two days ago, and we can expect a few more locations to drop a color notch or two by Saturday. Unlikely to see much Good air though.
Here's the 24-hr average fine particle pollution levels predicted by WSU's Airpact model for Saturday, showing not-so-Good air after all the Montana smoke is gone and the Cascade fires have filled the void. Concentration scale is transparent < blue < green < yellow < orange < red.
Sunday marks a return to light winds, implying smoke accumulation. Conditions are likely to worsen Monday- Wednesday for most of eastern WA and the marginal improvements today and tomorrow will be of little comfort to most but sadly that is the forecast we have to live with.
A more detailed forecast for the communities downwind of the Cascades fires will be posted separately.
An aside: if you're wondering how on earth west coast smoke could impact the east coast, bear in mind that plumes have been observed to circle the globe in about two weeks.
What is that smoke still doing in western WA?
Overstaying it's welcome for sure! A few green dots have appeared on the real-time monitoring map and that trend is set to continue today as light on-shore winds persist. Reason air quality hasn't yet gone all green is because (1) on-shore winds are very light (<5 mph) so ventilation is limited, and (2) some light Oregon/ California smoke hanging aloft has likely mixed down. Balloon data from the Washington coast show the inversion is much weaker than 24 hours ago, but still present.
Here's how several representative monitors across western WA have trended in the last 2 days. Improvements through noon yesterday and then some stalling:
An all-green western WA is expected later today and will stay that way through Sunday, possibly Monday. If models have it right, Tuesday is looking ripe for some smoke along the I-5 corridor. Please stay tuned.
Will it really improve east of the Cascades?
Yes, a little. But not for long. There are fewer Hazardous/ Very Unhealthy spots on the monitoring map compared to two days ago, and we can expect a few more locations to drop a color notch or two by Saturday. Unlikely to see much Good air though.
Here's the 24-hr average fine particle pollution levels predicted by WSU's Airpact model for Saturday, showing not-so-Good air after all the Montana smoke is gone and the Cascade fires have filled the void. Concentration scale is transparent < blue < green < yellow < orange < red.
Sunday marks a return to light winds, implying smoke accumulation. Conditions are likely to worsen Monday- Wednesday for most of eastern WA and the marginal improvements today and tomorrow will be of little comfort to most but sadly that is the forecast we have to live with.
A more detailed forecast for the communities downwind of the Cascades fires will be posted separately.
Thursday, September 7, 2017
Washington State Smoke Forecast for Friday September 8, 2017
Washington State Smoke Forecast for Friday September 8, 2017
Forecast issued on Thursday September 7, 2017
Forecaster: R. Graw, USDA Forest Service.
As of Thursday morning, there were 4 uncontained large wildfires burning in Washington, of which a number of these contained multiple fires. Figure 1 below illustrates the locations of the fires burning around the state. The three most active fires are Diamond Creek, Jolly Mountain, and Norse Peak.
Figure 1. Large Fire Map of Washington - Thursday morning, September 7, 2017
A cut-off low pressure system spinning of the coast of northern California will bring moisture and winds out of the south over much of the State on Friday as illustrated in Figure 2 below.
Figure 2. 500 mb map illustrating winds patterns at approximately 20,000 ft for Friday, September 8, 2017 at 11 am Pacific Time.
This will bring in some light precipitation into some parts of the state, as illustrated in Figure 3. Precipitation is expected in western Washington and over the Cascades and in southern Washington, as predicted by the University of Washington WRF-GFS 1.33 km meteorological model. note the color bar below which relates colors to 1/100 of an inch of precipitation. Most locations can expect only about a trace to a 1/10 of an inch, including where many of the fires are located. This little amount of precipitation is not enough to put the fires out, and will do little to modify fire behavior significantly.
Figure 3. Model-Predicted 24-hour total precipitation for the period ending at 5 pm on Friday, September 8, 2017.
Mixing tomorrow is expected to be good over the Cascades by marginal to poor elsewhere by 2 pm, as illustrated in Figure 4 below. The ventilation index is a combination of mixing height and horizontal wind speed in layer below. Note the poor ventilation expected over much of central and eastern Washington for tomorrow. Additionally the figure illustrates the surface level winds expected tomorrow. Westerly winds are expected over the western part of the state with speed of approximately 10 mph Winds will be mixed and a bit lighter over central and eastern Washington.
Figure 4. Model-predicted Ventilation Index for Friday, September 8, 2917 at 2 pm Pacific Time.
According to the Severe Fire Weather Potential Mapping System, fire activity is expected to be high to severe over the fires tomorrow, as illustrated in Figure 5. Thus, smoke production and fire behavior is not expected to be damped by the forecasted precipitation.
Figure 5. Severe Fire Weather Potential for Friday September 8, 2017.
Given these conditions, the state-wide smoke pattern is expected to be as shown in Figure 6. Smoke is expected to be most dense in the immediate downwind vicinity of Diamond Creek, Jolly Mountain and Norse Peak fires and to the north east. Western, WA is expected to be the best location for good air quality tomorrow. However, once the nighttime inversion set up (around 8 pm), smoke from the fires will concentrate along the river drainages. Additionally, smoke can also be compressed and concentrated in areas such as eastern and northeastern Washington with the on set of the evening inversion as well.
Figure 6. Model-predicted Smoke Pattern and Concentrations for Washington on Friday, September 8, 2017.
Disclaimer: Predictions of fire behavior, weather, and smoke transport and dispersion are very complex. Conditions can and do change rapidly. As such, these forecasts are a best attempt at providing useful information. Graphics are used to try to communicate as much information as possible state-wide as not all areas can be discussed in the text.
For additional information about smoke and fires in Central Oregon, please see the updates provided by the Air Resource Advisers on this smoke blog.
Forecast issued on Thursday September 7, 2017
Forecaster: R. Graw, USDA Forest Service.
As of Thursday morning, there were 4 uncontained large wildfires burning in Washington, of which a number of these contained multiple fires. Figure 1 below illustrates the locations of the fires burning around the state. The three most active fires are Diamond Creek, Jolly Mountain, and Norse Peak.
Figure 1. Large Fire Map of Washington - Thursday morning, September 7, 2017
A cut-off low pressure system spinning of the coast of northern California will bring moisture and winds out of the south over much of the State on Friday as illustrated in Figure 2 below.
Figure 2. 500 mb map illustrating winds patterns at approximately 20,000 ft for Friday, September 8, 2017 at 11 am Pacific Time.
This will bring in some light precipitation into some parts of the state, as illustrated in Figure 3. Precipitation is expected in western Washington and over the Cascades and in southern Washington, as predicted by the University of Washington WRF-GFS 1.33 km meteorological model. note the color bar below which relates colors to 1/100 of an inch of precipitation. Most locations can expect only about a trace to a 1/10 of an inch, including where many of the fires are located. This little amount of precipitation is not enough to put the fires out, and will do little to modify fire behavior significantly.
Figure 3. Model-Predicted 24-hour total precipitation for the period ending at 5 pm on Friday, September 8, 2017.
Mixing tomorrow is expected to be good over the Cascades by marginal to poor elsewhere by 2 pm, as illustrated in Figure 4 below. The ventilation index is a combination of mixing height and horizontal wind speed in layer below. Note the poor ventilation expected over much of central and eastern Washington for tomorrow. Additionally the figure illustrates the surface level winds expected tomorrow. Westerly winds are expected over the western part of the state with speed of approximately 10 mph Winds will be mixed and a bit lighter over central and eastern Washington.
Figure 4. Model-predicted Ventilation Index for Friday, September 8, 2917 at 2 pm Pacific Time.
According to the Severe Fire Weather Potential Mapping System, fire activity is expected to be high to severe over the fires tomorrow, as illustrated in Figure 5. Thus, smoke production and fire behavior is not expected to be damped by the forecasted precipitation.
Figure 5. Severe Fire Weather Potential for Friday September 8, 2017.
Figure 6. Model-predicted Smoke Pattern and Concentrations for Washington on Friday, September 8, 2017.
Disclaimer: Predictions of fire behavior, weather, and smoke transport and dispersion are very complex. Conditions can and do change rapidly. As such, these forecasts are a best attempt at providing useful information. Graphics are used to try to communicate as much information as possible state-wide as not all areas can be discussed in the text.
For additional information about smoke and fires in Central Oregon, please see the updates provided by the Air Resource Advisers on this smoke blog.
Wednesday, September 6, 2017
Forecast: smoky with a chance of ashfalls
There was hardly a corner of the state that wasn't battered and bruised by smoke and ash yesterday. The smoke layer reduced maximum solar radiation intensity by almost 50% in Seattle, as seen in the following plot. Compare 1 and 2 Sept (sunny days in western WA) with 5 Sept.
Further, Ecology's air quality monitoring data website and the map of monitors above were feeling the strain of increased web traffic. Staff have been working overtime to restore and maintain services. If all else fails, EPA's AirNow site can serve as a backup.
Compare air quality yesterday (WA, OR and MT smoke) with a BC smoke episode last month
Colored dots are air quality conditions, with darker colors representing worse air. Satellite pictures were taken around 1:30PM. Spokane area air was bordering hazardous all day yesterday.
When will it all go away?
Tomorrow for western WA. Not fast enough or complete enough for eastern WA.
How long will it STAY clean?
Not long enough, it seems.
Airflow turns westerly after the flushing tomorrow. Few of the smoke models seem to be capturing the large pall of smoke hovering over the Pacific ocean.
Some of that smoke is likely to mix down into western WA on occasion but don't expect air to be much worse than Moderate in a few spots. Problem is that models are building another ridge of high pressure (= light winds and poor smoke dispersion) from Sunday- Tuesday. Don't yet know if east winds which brought smoke from the Cascades to western WA will be part of the calculus or not. Please stay tuned.
Finally, about the ash
Many questions were raised about the toxicity of ash. Our toxicologist Dr Matt Kadlec confirmed that ash from forest matter is basic (pH ~ 9) and does contain heavy metals and PAHs. It can cause skin/ eye irritation. However these particles are far too large to be inhaled and fine particle pollution measured by air quality monitors are a far more serious health concern. Besides, ash has not and will not accumulate in sufficient depths in our cities to put people at risk when cleaning it up.
Further, Ecology's air quality monitoring data website and the map of monitors above were feeling the strain of increased web traffic. Staff have been working overtime to restore and maintain services. If all else fails, EPA's AirNow site can serve as a backup.
Compare air quality yesterday (WA, OR and MT smoke) with a BC smoke episode last month
Colored dots are air quality conditions, with darker colors representing worse air. Satellite pictures were taken around 1:30PM. Spokane area air was bordering hazardous all day yesterday.
When will it all go away?
Tomorrow for western WA. Not fast enough or complete enough for eastern WA.
- Western WA: Marine air starts to push in slowly this evening and it will be Thursday before western WA is able to flush out. Expect ash to stop falling by tomorrow.
- Eastern WA: The Montana smoke tap will be turned off by Thursday, so most of central and far eastern WA will "improve" from Hazardous/ Very Unhealthy to Unhealthy/ Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. It will be well into Friday before further improvements ripple through, but most areas will be downwind of fires in and around the Cascades, so Good air quality isn't on the immediate horizon.
How long will it STAY clean?
Not long enough, it seems.
Airflow turns westerly after the flushing tomorrow. Few of the smoke models seem to be capturing the large pall of smoke hovering over the Pacific ocean.
Some of that smoke is likely to mix down into western WA on occasion but don't expect air to be much worse than Moderate in a few spots. Problem is that models are building another ridge of high pressure (= light winds and poor smoke dispersion) from Sunday- Tuesday. Don't yet know if east winds which brought smoke from the Cascades to western WA will be part of the calculus or not. Please stay tuned.
Finally, about the ash
Many questions were raised about the toxicity of ash. Our toxicologist Dr Matt Kadlec confirmed that ash from forest matter is basic (pH ~ 9) and does contain heavy metals and PAHs. It can cause skin/ eye irritation. However these particles are far too large to be inhaled and fine particle pollution measured by air quality monitors are a far more serious health concern. Besides, ash has not and will not accumulate in sufficient depths in our cities to put people at risk when cleaning it up.
Tuesday, September 5, 2017
School has started in some areas, the wildfire smoke information below can help you make decisions to keep everyone at school safe.
- Check news, social media and local reports for the latest air quality status.
- It is up to the school district or school to cancel or move outdoor activities when the air quality is poor. Use the Air Pollution and School Activities Guide (PDF) to help make those determinations.
- Avoid physical activity outdoors when conditions are "unhealthy", "very unhealthy" or “hazardous.”
- Keep doors and windows closed but be mindful of hot weather. Run air systems/AC on recirculate and the close fresh-air intake. See the Improving Ventilation during Wildfire Smoke Events (PDF) guide.
- Take extra care if you have a heart or lung condition, diabetes, are pregnant or over 65, as well as infants and children. Seek medical attention if the smoke is effecting your health.
- For more information: www.doh.wa.gov/smokefromfires
- Guidance for keeping indoor air cleaner. Be aware that having people close windows who do not have air conditioning may pose health risks for overheating.
- “Wildfire Smoke and Face Mask Fact Sheet”. It’s important to wear the right kind of mask. Face masks do not work well on small children or people with beards. We recommend that people with pre-existing heart and lung conditions consult a health care provider about using a mask because wearing a mask can make it more difficult to breathe.
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