Friday, September 8, 2017
Last bit of smoke holding on in western WA; limited relief en route east of the Cascades
The fact that the Pacific Northwest is the smokiest part of the country should come as no surprise to most, given the # of wildfires and the not-so-cooperative weather we've been having. Here's how we stacked up nationally yesterday, with the dot colors explained in the map legend above. Grey shading indicates smoke plumes of varying density.
An aside: if you're wondering how on earth west coast smoke could impact the east coast, bear in mind that plumes have been observed to circle the globe in about two weeks.
What is that smoke still doing in western WA?
Overstaying it's welcome for sure! A few green dots have appeared on the real-time monitoring map and that trend is set to continue today as light on-shore winds persist. Reason air quality hasn't yet gone all green is because (1) on-shore winds are very light (<5 mph) so ventilation is limited, and (2) some light Oregon/ California smoke hanging aloft has likely mixed down. Balloon data from the Washington coast show the inversion is much weaker than 24 hours ago, but still present.
Here's how several representative monitors across western WA have trended in the last 2 days. Improvements through noon yesterday and then some stalling:
An all-green western WA is expected later today and will stay that way through Sunday, possibly Monday. If models have it right, Tuesday is looking ripe for some smoke along the I-5 corridor. Please stay tuned.
Will it really improve east of the Cascades?
Yes, a little. But not for long. There are fewer Hazardous/ Very Unhealthy spots on the monitoring map compared to two days ago, and we can expect a few more locations to drop a color notch or two by Saturday. Unlikely to see much Good air though.
Here's the 24-hr average fine particle pollution levels predicted by WSU's Airpact model for Saturday, showing not-so-Good air after all the Montana smoke is gone and the Cascade fires have filled the void. Concentration scale is transparent < blue < green < yellow < orange < red.
Sunday marks a return to light winds, implying smoke accumulation. Conditions are likely to worsen Monday- Wednesday for most of eastern WA and the marginal improvements today and tomorrow will be of little comfort to most but sadly that is the forecast we have to live with.
A more detailed forecast for the communities downwind of the Cascades fires will be posted separately.
An aside: if you're wondering how on earth west coast smoke could impact the east coast, bear in mind that plumes have been observed to circle the globe in about two weeks.
What is that smoke still doing in western WA?
Overstaying it's welcome for sure! A few green dots have appeared on the real-time monitoring map and that trend is set to continue today as light on-shore winds persist. Reason air quality hasn't yet gone all green is because (1) on-shore winds are very light (<5 mph) so ventilation is limited, and (2) some light Oregon/ California smoke hanging aloft has likely mixed down. Balloon data from the Washington coast show the inversion is much weaker than 24 hours ago, but still present.
Here's how several representative monitors across western WA have trended in the last 2 days. Improvements through noon yesterday and then some stalling:
An all-green western WA is expected later today and will stay that way through Sunday, possibly Monday. If models have it right, Tuesday is looking ripe for some smoke along the I-5 corridor. Please stay tuned.
Will it really improve east of the Cascades?
Yes, a little. But not for long. There are fewer Hazardous/ Very Unhealthy spots on the monitoring map compared to two days ago, and we can expect a few more locations to drop a color notch or two by Saturday. Unlikely to see much Good air though.
Here's the 24-hr average fine particle pollution levels predicted by WSU's Airpact model for Saturday, showing not-so-Good air after all the Montana smoke is gone and the Cascade fires have filled the void. Concentration scale is transparent < blue < green < yellow < orange < red.
Sunday marks a return to light winds, implying smoke accumulation. Conditions are likely to worsen Monday- Wednesday for most of eastern WA and the marginal improvements today and tomorrow will be of little comfort to most but sadly that is the forecast we have to live with.
A more detailed forecast for the communities downwind of the Cascades fires will be posted separately.
Thursday, September 7, 2017
Washington State Smoke Forecast for Friday September 8, 2017
Washington State Smoke Forecast for Friday September 8, 2017
Forecast issued on Thursday September 7, 2017
Forecaster: R. Graw, USDA Forest Service.
As of Thursday morning, there were 4 uncontained large wildfires burning in Washington, of which a number of these contained multiple fires. Figure 1 below illustrates the locations of the fires burning around the state. The three most active fires are Diamond Creek, Jolly Mountain, and Norse Peak.
Figure 1. Large Fire Map of Washington - Thursday morning, September 7, 2017
A cut-off low pressure system spinning of the coast of northern California will bring moisture and winds out of the south over much of the State on Friday as illustrated in Figure 2 below.
Figure 2. 500 mb map illustrating winds patterns at approximately 20,000 ft for Friday, September 8, 2017 at 11 am Pacific Time.
This will bring in some light precipitation into some parts of the state, as illustrated in Figure 3. Precipitation is expected in western Washington and over the Cascades and in southern Washington, as predicted by the University of Washington WRF-GFS 1.33 km meteorological model. note the color bar below which relates colors to 1/100 of an inch of precipitation. Most locations can expect only about a trace to a 1/10 of an inch, including where many of the fires are located. This little amount of precipitation is not enough to put the fires out, and will do little to modify fire behavior significantly.
Figure 3. Model-Predicted 24-hour total precipitation for the period ending at 5 pm on Friday, September 8, 2017.
Mixing tomorrow is expected to be good over the Cascades by marginal to poor elsewhere by 2 pm, as illustrated in Figure 4 below. The ventilation index is a combination of mixing height and horizontal wind speed in layer below. Note the poor ventilation expected over much of central and eastern Washington for tomorrow. Additionally the figure illustrates the surface level winds expected tomorrow. Westerly winds are expected over the western part of the state with speed of approximately 10 mph Winds will be mixed and a bit lighter over central and eastern Washington.
Figure 4. Model-predicted Ventilation Index for Friday, September 8, 2917 at 2 pm Pacific Time.
According to the Severe Fire Weather Potential Mapping System, fire activity is expected to be high to severe over the fires tomorrow, as illustrated in Figure 5. Thus, smoke production and fire behavior is not expected to be damped by the forecasted precipitation.
Figure 5. Severe Fire Weather Potential for Friday September 8, 2017.
Given these conditions, the state-wide smoke pattern is expected to be as shown in Figure 6. Smoke is expected to be most dense in the immediate downwind vicinity of Diamond Creek, Jolly Mountain and Norse Peak fires and to the north east. Western, WA is expected to be the best location for good air quality tomorrow. However, once the nighttime inversion set up (around 8 pm), smoke from the fires will concentrate along the river drainages. Additionally, smoke can also be compressed and concentrated in areas such as eastern and northeastern Washington with the on set of the evening inversion as well.
Figure 6. Model-predicted Smoke Pattern and Concentrations for Washington on Friday, September 8, 2017.
Disclaimer: Predictions of fire behavior, weather, and smoke transport and dispersion are very complex. Conditions can and do change rapidly. As such, these forecasts are a best attempt at providing useful information. Graphics are used to try to communicate as much information as possible state-wide as not all areas can be discussed in the text.
For additional information about smoke and fires in Central Oregon, please see the updates provided by the Air Resource Advisers on this smoke blog.
Forecast issued on Thursday September 7, 2017
Forecaster: R. Graw, USDA Forest Service.
As of Thursday morning, there were 4 uncontained large wildfires burning in Washington, of which a number of these contained multiple fires. Figure 1 below illustrates the locations of the fires burning around the state. The three most active fires are Diamond Creek, Jolly Mountain, and Norse Peak.
Figure 1. Large Fire Map of Washington - Thursday morning, September 7, 2017
A cut-off low pressure system spinning of the coast of northern California will bring moisture and winds out of the south over much of the State on Friday as illustrated in Figure 2 below.
Figure 2. 500 mb map illustrating winds patterns at approximately 20,000 ft for Friday, September 8, 2017 at 11 am Pacific Time.
This will bring in some light precipitation into some parts of the state, as illustrated in Figure 3. Precipitation is expected in western Washington and over the Cascades and in southern Washington, as predicted by the University of Washington WRF-GFS 1.33 km meteorological model. note the color bar below which relates colors to 1/100 of an inch of precipitation. Most locations can expect only about a trace to a 1/10 of an inch, including where many of the fires are located. This little amount of precipitation is not enough to put the fires out, and will do little to modify fire behavior significantly.
Figure 3. Model-Predicted 24-hour total precipitation for the period ending at 5 pm on Friday, September 8, 2017.
Mixing tomorrow is expected to be good over the Cascades by marginal to poor elsewhere by 2 pm, as illustrated in Figure 4 below. The ventilation index is a combination of mixing height and horizontal wind speed in layer below. Note the poor ventilation expected over much of central and eastern Washington for tomorrow. Additionally the figure illustrates the surface level winds expected tomorrow. Westerly winds are expected over the western part of the state with speed of approximately 10 mph Winds will be mixed and a bit lighter over central and eastern Washington.
Figure 4. Model-predicted Ventilation Index for Friday, September 8, 2917 at 2 pm Pacific Time.
According to the Severe Fire Weather Potential Mapping System, fire activity is expected to be high to severe over the fires tomorrow, as illustrated in Figure 5. Thus, smoke production and fire behavior is not expected to be damped by the forecasted precipitation.
Figure 5. Severe Fire Weather Potential for Friday September 8, 2017.
Figure 6. Model-predicted Smoke Pattern and Concentrations for Washington on Friday, September 8, 2017.
Disclaimer: Predictions of fire behavior, weather, and smoke transport and dispersion are very complex. Conditions can and do change rapidly. As such, these forecasts are a best attempt at providing useful information. Graphics are used to try to communicate as much information as possible state-wide as not all areas can be discussed in the text.
For additional information about smoke and fires in Central Oregon, please see the updates provided by the Air Resource Advisers on this smoke blog.
Wednesday, September 6, 2017
Forecast: smoky with a chance of ashfalls
There was hardly a corner of the state that wasn't battered and bruised by smoke and ash yesterday. The smoke layer reduced maximum solar radiation intensity by almost 50% in Seattle, as seen in the following plot. Compare 1 and 2 Sept (sunny days in western WA) with 5 Sept.
Further, Ecology's air quality monitoring data website and the map of monitors above were feeling the strain of increased web traffic. Staff have been working overtime to restore and maintain services. If all else fails, EPA's AirNow site can serve as a backup.
Compare air quality yesterday (WA, OR and MT smoke) with a BC smoke episode last month
Colored dots are air quality conditions, with darker colors representing worse air. Satellite pictures were taken around 1:30PM. Spokane area air was bordering hazardous all day yesterday.
When will it all go away?
Tomorrow for western WA. Not fast enough or complete enough for eastern WA.
How long will it STAY clean?
Not long enough, it seems.
Airflow turns westerly after the flushing tomorrow. Few of the smoke models seem to be capturing the large pall of smoke hovering over the Pacific ocean.
Some of that smoke is likely to mix down into western WA on occasion but don't expect air to be much worse than Moderate in a few spots. Problem is that models are building another ridge of high pressure (= light winds and poor smoke dispersion) from Sunday- Tuesday. Don't yet know if east winds which brought smoke from the Cascades to western WA will be part of the calculus or not. Please stay tuned.
Finally, about the ash
Many questions were raised about the toxicity of ash. Our toxicologist Dr Matt Kadlec confirmed that ash from forest matter is basic (pH ~ 9) and does contain heavy metals and PAHs. It can cause skin/ eye irritation. However these particles are far too large to be inhaled and fine particle pollution measured by air quality monitors are a far more serious health concern. Besides, ash has not and will not accumulate in sufficient depths in our cities to put people at risk when cleaning it up.
Further, Ecology's air quality monitoring data website and the map of monitors above were feeling the strain of increased web traffic. Staff have been working overtime to restore and maintain services. If all else fails, EPA's AirNow site can serve as a backup.
Compare air quality yesterday (WA, OR and MT smoke) with a BC smoke episode last month
Colored dots are air quality conditions, with darker colors representing worse air. Satellite pictures were taken around 1:30PM. Spokane area air was bordering hazardous all day yesterday.
When will it all go away?
Tomorrow for western WA. Not fast enough or complete enough for eastern WA.
- Western WA: Marine air starts to push in slowly this evening and it will be Thursday before western WA is able to flush out. Expect ash to stop falling by tomorrow.
- Eastern WA: The Montana smoke tap will be turned off by Thursday, so most of central and far eastern WA will "improve" from Hazardous/ Very Unhealthy to Unhealthy/ Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. It will be well into Friday before further improvements ripple through, but most areas will be downwind of fires in and around the Cascades, so Good air quality isn't on the immediate horizon.
How long will it STAY clean?
Not long enough, it seems.
Airflow turns westerly after the flushing tomorrow. Few of the smoke models seem to be capturing the large pall of smoke hovering over the Pacific ocean.
Some of that smoke is likely to mix down into western WA on occasion but don't expect air to be much worse than Moderate in a few spots. Problem is that models are building another ridge of high pressure (= light winds and poor smoke dispersion) from Sunday- Tuesday. Don't yet know if east winds which brought smoke from the Cascades to western WA will be part of the calculus or not. Please stay tuned.
Finally, about the ash
Many questions were raised about the toxicity of ash. Our toxicologist Dr Matt Kadlec confirmed that ash from forest matter is basic (pH ~ 9) and does contain heavy metals and PAHs. It can cause skin/ eye irritation. However these particles are far too large to be inhaled and fine particle pollution measured by air quality monitors are a far more serious health concern. Besides, ash has not and will not accumulate in sufficient depths in our cities to put people at risk when cleaning it up.
Tuesday, September 5, 2017
School has started in some areas, the wildfire smoke information below can help you make decisions to keep everyone at school safe.
- Check news, social media and local reports for the latest air quality status.
- It is up to the school district or school to cancel or move outdoor activities when the air quality is poor. Use the Air Pollution and School Activities Guide (PDF) to help make those determinations.
- Avoid physical activity outdoors when conditions are "unhealthy", "very unhealthy" or “hazardous.”
- Keep doors and windows closed but be mindful of hot weather. Run air systems/AC on recirculate and the close fresh-air intake. See the Improving Ventilation during Wildfire Smoke Events (PDF) guide.
- Take extra care if you have a heart or lung condition, diabetes, are pregnant or over 65, as well as infants and children. Seek medical attention if the smoke is effecting your health.
- For more information: www.doh.wa.gov/smokefromfires
- Guidance for keeping indoor air cleaner. Be aware that having people close windows who do not have air conditioning may pose health risks for overheating.
- “Wildfire Smoke and Face Mask Fact Sheet”. It’s important to wear the right kind of mask. Face masks do not work well on small children or people with beards. We recommend that people with pre-existing heart and lung conditions consult a health care provider about using a mask because wearing a mask can make it more difficult to breathe.
Poor Air Quality Across Most of the State!
Smoke from Montana
fires has caused hazardous air quality in eastern WA and it won’t improve much over
the next couple days. Although air quality is better in Western WA, the big
fires in the Cascades (Jolly Mountain Fire near Cle Elum and the Norse Peak
fire near Chinook Pass) are providing smoke that, combined with winds from the
east, is making its way into the Puget Sound area. Air quality in the Puget Sound area will likely
drop to unhealthy today but clear out by Thursday.
Some of the local air quality mapping services have been having trouble keeping up with the traffic, but EPA's AirNow page is usually available.
There have been some
concerns about ash particles that have deposited in Western WA not showing up
on the air quality monitors. Keep in mind that the monitors measure fine
particles, not larger particles like ash.
A recent satellite image (below) shows the huge swaths of smoke covering our state and neighbors. If you are in an area with smoky air, stay indoors if possible and set your A/C to recirculation. If you work outdoors and have adverse reactions to smoke, then you should consider staying indoors Tuesday through Thursday. Also consider wearing N95 face masks or making a trip to areas with cleaner air. Though, only the coast should expect decent air quality over the next couple days.
Monday, September 4, 2017
Washington State Smoke Forecast for Monday -Tuesday September 4-5, 2017
Issued: Monday September 4 2017
Forecaster. R. Graw, USDA Forest Service
A high pressure system will remain over the State today producing a subsidence inversion which will hold smoke in the lower parts of the atmosphere today (<10,000 feet). Above the inversion, westerly winds will transport high levels of smoke and haze across central and eastern Washington. Below the inversion, easterly winds will transport smoke from the fires in British Columbia, Montana, and Idaho in eastern and central Washington, while smoke from the fires in the Cascades will be transported into the western portions of the state.
Figure 1 illustrates the overall fire locations (indicated by flames) and smoke pattern at ground level for the state today. The map is best interpreted in a relative, rather than absolute sense. The dark red indicates areas of heavier smoke and the higher shades of red (i.e., pink) indicate areas of lighter smoke. Because these are 24-hour averages, there will be differences at any given hour. Some locations may experience heavier concentrations of smoke for shorter durations such as in low-lying area where smoke from the fires drains down valleys.
Smoke will likely start moving into the Seattle and surrounding metropolitan areas, and eastern portions of the State by early afternoon and will get more concentrated overnight with the onset of the evening temperature inversion, which will hold smoke closer to the ground.
Figure 1. Model-Predicted 24-hour Smoke Concentrations for Washington on Monday September 4, 2017
Tuesday, September 5, 2017
Conditions remain much the same as Monday, except the thermal trough will strengthen throughout the day. Fire activity will likely increase due to the thermal through, but also be tempered by the smoke. East winds underneath the subsidence inversion will persist through the day on Tuesday. Much of the state will continue experience smoke and haze, very similar to Monday’s forecasted pattern.
Disclaimer: Weather and fire activity can change quickly. Please check back for updates to these forecasts as conditions change. If you’re traveling out of Washington, many other states also have smoke blogs, including Oregon, Idaho, and California. So please consider those resources to help you plan your travels.
Sunday, September 3, 2017
Expect smoke in western WA Monday- Tuesday; continuous smoke thoughout eastern WA
Note: Many Red flag warnings in effect. PLEASE do your part to prevent fires
Western WA smoke forecast
Some smoke from Oregon showed up from the southwest overnight but for the most part, has remained around 10K ft aloft. Here's a timelapse from Skunk Bay this morning:
Air quality has been mostly Good for the last 24 hours and will likely remain that way for much of Sunday.
There is consensus among models that east winds will start up early Monday morning and persist through Tuesday evening at least. Here are how all the weather models depict relative humidity at SeaTac airport.
The thick black line is the average of them all ("ensemble mean" in geek-speak). Times are in GMT, so subtract 7 hours for local time. When dry air from eastern WA invades, the humidity stays low.
These east winds will transport smoke from the Jolly Mountain fire into the Seattle area, and the Norse Peak fire to southwest WA. There is a chance that smoke from the Diamond Creek and Uno Peak fires could foul up northwest WA. By Tuesday some of this smoke could find its way to the Washington coast. Air quality is likely to vary from Moderate to Unhealthy at different times and places. In general, partial clearing during the day and poor air at night.
Wednesday could bring some short-lived relief as winds shift to south-southwest. Oregon smoke is lurking to our south and could surge into western WA. Hard to win when there is only one "clean" wind direction to work with, i.e. northwest. Please stay tuned.
Eastern WA smoke forecast
Wish I had better news for these folks who have been assailed by wave after wave of smoke. Next several days will to be no different. While east winds starting early Monday reduce smoke transport from Cascades → Columbia Basin, smoke from fires in Idaho and Montana are likely to fill the void and blast far eastern WA.
Western WA smoke forecast
Some smoke from Oregon showed up from the southwest overnight but for the most part, has remained around 10K ft aloft. Here's a timelapse from Skunk Bay this morning:
Air quality has been mostly Good for the last 24 hours and will likely remain that way for much of Sunday.
There is consensus among models that east winds will start up early Monday morning and persist through Tuesday evening at least. Here are how all the weather models depict relative humidity at SeaTac airport.
The thick black line is the average of them all ("ensemble mean" in geek-speak). Times are in GMT, so subtract 7 hours for local time. When dry air from eastern WA invades, the humidity stays low.
These east winds will transport smoke from the Jolly Mountain fire into the Seattle area, and the Norse Peak fire to southwest WA. There is a chance that smoke from the Diamond Creek and Uno Peak fires could foul up northwest WA. By Tuesday some of this smoke could find its way to the Washington coast. Air quality is likely to vary from Moderate to Unhealthy at different times and places. In general, partial clearing during the day and poor air at night.
Wednesday could bring some short-lived relief as winds shift to south-southwest. Oregon smoke is lurking to our south and could surge into western WA. Hard to win when there is only one "clean" wind direction to work with, i.e. northwest. Please stay tuned.
Eastern WA smoke forecast
Wish I had better news for these folks who have been assailed by wave after wave of smoke. Next several days will to be no different. While east winds starting early Monday reduce smoke transport from Cascades → Columbia Basin, smoke from fires in Idaho and Montana are likely to fill the void and blast far eastern WA.
- Kittitas and Yakima valleys could see a repeat of yesterday, with Unhealthy air gradually improving later in the day Sunday & Monday
- Far eastern WA and the Methow valley are unlikely to deteriorate more than Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups today and tomorrow.
Saturday, September 2, 2017
Kittias and Yakima county getting hammered with smoke; little improvement expected before Monday
Unfortunately several cities in Yakima and Kittitas counties got slammed with a lot more smoke than expected today. Conditions in Cle Elum and Toppenish were Very Unhealthy this morning, leading to the cancellation of some sporting events.
A colleague sent in this picture of haze-laden skies in Yakima.
Sections of plumes from the Norse Peak appear to have combined with the Jolly Mountain fire plumes and smoked out the Kittitas and Yakima valleys, as seen in this satellite loop. Not much wind in the forecast today & tomorrow to disperse the smoke, so brace for more of the same, namely mostly Unhealthy air throughout most of Kittitas and Yakima counties through Sunday night. Periods of Very Unhealthy or even Hazardous conditions cannot be ruled out. Things should start to improve by Monday morning as northeast winds pick up a little.
Also notice this morning's MODIS satellite image showing Oregon plumes making a two-pronged approach toward southwest and southeast WA, the former using the Pacific route.
Smoke in the southeastern WA plume could hit the Lewis- Clark valley, Walla Walla and the Tri Cities later today, leading to air that is Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups between now and Sunday evening.
While the Pacific smoke patch isnt much of threat right now, it is a little harder to predict- will have to wait for the smoke models to run on Sunday morning before we know.
Rest of the forecast issued yesterday is mostly on track.
A colleague sent in this picture of haze-laden skies in Yakima.
Sections of plumes from the Norse Peak appear to have combined with the Jolly Mountain fire plumes and smoked out the Kittitas and Yakima valleys, as seen in this satellite loop. Not much wind in the forecast today & tomorrow to disperse the smoke, so brace for more of the same, namely mostly Unhealthy air throughout most of Kittitas and Yakima counties through Sunday night. Periods of Very Unhealthy or even Hazardous conditions cannot be ruled out. Things should start to improve by Monday morning as northeast winds pick up a little.
Also notice this morning's MODIS satellite image showing Oregon plumes making a two-pronged approach toward southwest and southeast WA, the former using the Pacific route.
Smoke in the southeastern WA plume could hit the Lewis- Clark valley, Walla Walla and the Tri Cities later today, leading to air that is Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups between now and Sunday evening.
While the Pacific smoke patch isnt much of threat right now, it is a little harder to predict- will have to wait for the smoke models to run on Sunday morning before we know.
Rest of the forecast issued yesterday is mostly on track.
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