Thursday, August 10, 2017

Smoke and Your Health


Protect your health while it's smoky

Breathing in high levels of smoke is bad for your health.

Exposure to wildfire smoke, like all smoke, can cause health problems that include:
  • burning eyes
  • sore throat
  • headache
  • coughing
  • wheezing
  • shortness of breath
  • worsening of heart and lung conditions
The possibility for high levels of smoke to worsen symptoms or trigger health effects for people with heart disease or lung disease is especially a concern because this can be life-threatening. Sensitive groups include:
  • people with chronic heart disease or lung disease
  • people with respiratory infections
  • people with diabetes
  • infants and children
  • pregnant women
  • people over 65
Taking precaution to protect your health from smoke is important for everyone, especially for sensitive groups of people. 

Take steps to reduce smoke exposure.

Stay up-to-date with the air pollution category in your area. Washington Air Quality Advisory table


Air Pollution Categories:

Good
Moderate
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Unhealthy
Very Unhealthy
Hazardous

Smoke levels can change through the day with wildfires.
  • When smoke levels reach the category “unhealthy for sensitive groups”, sensitive groups of people should avoid time outdoors.
  • When smoke levels are in the “unhealthy”, “very unhealthy” or “hazardous” categories, everyone should limit their time outdoors, avoid outdoor exercise, and keep indoor air clean.
To keep indoor air clean, close windows and doors, but be mindful of the heat. Stay hydrated on these summer days to avoid other health problems. Use fans indoors, and if you have an air conditioner, set it to recirculate. Don’t add to indoor air pollution: avoid candle use, and don’t smoke or vacuum while it’s smoky outside. An air cleaning device with a HEPA filter can improve indoor air quality, but do not use air cleaners that produce ozone
Seek medical attention if you or those you are caring for have serious symptoms.

Diamond Creek Smoke Outlook for 8/10/2017



Will smoke start to clear by Friday? Yes ± maybe

Ah the challenges of communicating scientific uncertainty!

Wednesday's air quality conditions remained pretty close to a repeat of Tuesday. Thursday will plagiarize from Wednesday. There is a reasonable chance that gradual improvements in western WA will commence by Friday afternoon. Eastern WA will have to wait a little longer. More on all that further down.

For today, expect mostly Good to Moderate air in southwest and northwest WA, while areas from Lynnwood down to Olympia can expect Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or Unhealthy air at times. No change to the pessimistic forecast for most of eastern WA: Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or worse 😢

Ground level ozone (aka smog) concerns (which we blogged about recently) persist, exacerbated by wildfire smoke. Locations in the Cascade foothills communities of east King and Pierce Counties and the Tri Cities recorded high levels of ozone this past week. An air quality advisory for smog has been issued.



However with north-northeast winds likely to let up for a while, Thursday will hopefully be the last day in a long stretch of high ozone days. At least for now.

About that reasonable chance: here are the forecast windspeeds shown by all the main weather models, for Seatac airport from now through 5PM on Sunday (times are in GMT, so subtract 7 hours for PDT; shaded times are overnight hours). The thick black line is the average of them all (known as the "ensemble mean" in geek speak).


Because many models agree that the slight uptick in speeds overnight Friday will remain through Sunday, we're more confident that smoke will start to disperse by then. Winds wont be terribly strong, so clearing will not be rapid.

The same plot for Spokane airport suggests that eastern WA will have to wait an extra 12-18 hours before clearing commences.



And, none of the major models are suggesting a return to this ridging pattern within the next week. Meaning BC wildfire smoke is unlikely to blanket the state anytime soon. Just yet. We hope.

Wednesday, August 9, 2017

8/9/2017 Smoke Sense App reminder



This is a repeat of news that was posted last week on the blog about an App developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for citizens affected by smoke from wildfires to see current air quality in their location, track their personal symptoms of smoke exposure, and get recommendations on ways they can protect themselves. EPA is testing the usefulness of the free App and you can help by participating in the trial. The App is only available at this time for Android phones. To learn more and to download the App go to: www.epa.gov/air-research/smoke-sense . Or you can get it directly from the Google Play store.


Air Quality Outlook for Diamond Creek Fire 8/9/2017


It's stuck until Friday at least

The high pressure system over us is a slowpoke. By the time is vacates our airspace this weekend, it would have calmly resided over us for about 10 days. It not only brought us a heatwave but also the flow conditions that helped transport copious amounts of BC wildfire smoke here. Some cheek, overstaying its welcome!

Last evening's satellite picture (~4PM) shows much of the state socked in with smoke. Apart from the movement of some high clouds, the animation looks almost identical to this image. In other words, the ridge is preventing any substantial air movement. Air quality degraded yesterday and prompted the reinstatement of burn bans in the Puget Sound region and the issuance of an air quality advisory in Southwest WA.



So the forecast is for more of the same on Wednesday and Thursday. Western WA will see air between Moderate and Unhealthy, with coastal areas showing Good air. Eastern WA will rarely improve beyond Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.

Morning fog has been present close to water for a few days now (see background view in the Nisqually webcam) and should not be confused with smoke.



Though the ridge S-L-O-W-L-Y moves east of the Cascades on Friday, there is no strong intrusion of marine air to rapidly clear the smoke from western WA. While air quality will start improving by Friday evening, models suggest that it might be well into the weekend before on-shore winds are able gather enough steam to flush out the smoke (image below shows surface winds on Sunday morning). Eastern WA will take even longer to clear out.





Tuesday, August 8, 2017

8/8/2017 Canadian fires still raging. No end in sight yet.

Fires in British Columbia are still active and showing very little sign of abating. As of today (Tuesday Aug. 8) there are 131 active fires in British Columbia. So far in 2017, 1,427,170 acres have burned in BC; their 10 year average acreage per year (2006-2016) is 382,875 acres so they are certainly experiencing a very extreme wildfire year and it's far from over. The six most significant and threatening of the BC fires are listed in the table below and the current perimeters of active fires in BC are shown on the map.

British Columbia Priority Wildfires
Name of Fire/Complex
Size (Ac.)

Elephant Hill (K20637)
284,171

About 115 miles north of US/Canada border above Ross Lake. About 85 miles W/NW of Kamloops; near Ashcroft. 30% contained.
West Quesnel Complex
197,684
About 275 miles north of the US/Canada border above Blaine, WA. 0% contained. 109 firefighters, 11 helicopters, 22 heavy equipment. Evacuation Order is in effect.
Central Cariboo Command
53,417
Fires from 0 to 40 % contained.
Hanceville Complex
64,741

Puntzi complex
25,451

Tautri Complex
258,719




A wildfire smoke dispersion model developed by the Canadians has been performing reasonably well to predict where the smoke from fires in Canada and the US will go. The modeled predictions for yesterday, today, and tomorrow at 5pm are shown below. Yesterday is shown for comparison so what you experienced in your location yesterday can be compared to the prediction for today and tomorrow. Many areas of Washington look pretty similar so no immediate change in the weather is expected to flush out the smoke. Remember this output is from a computer system that is trying to estimate fire size and growth plus meteorology so it will never be exactly correct. You can view the animations from the model at this link: https://weather.gc.ca/firework/firework_anim_e.html?type=em&utc=00


Déjà vu today and tomorrow. But not in comparison with previous years

Air quality degraded in western WA on Monday with the Puget Sound area experiencing Unhealthy air at times while the coast and southwest WA had Good to Moderate air. Tuesday and possibly Wednesday will be no different.

No Good air quality recorded anywhere in eastern WA yesterday, with most locations reading Unhealthy. And that will likely be the story for the next few days.

Déjà vu ends there. When compared to previous years, this wildfire season is unprecedented in the widespread nature of compromised air quality. Here's an animation of the worst days during the wildfires of 2012, 2015 and 2017, showing air quality conditions overlaid on a satellite map. Way more people were exposed to poor air this year than in the recent past.



However the percentage of time people breathed unhealthy air in 2017 is not as bad as past years, as shown by the barplot below. At least thus far. For instance, people in Spokane county were exposed to bad air about 5% of the time this year, while they had to deal with bad air for twice as long in 2015.



The # of acres burned, locations of fires and meteorological patterns all play roles in assessing public exposure to smoke. We will compile more data as it becomes available.

On an optimistic note, we're quite confident that the weekend will usher in a substantial shift in winds that will both cool the state and help dissipate smoke.

8/8/2017 Smoke forecast for vicinity of Diamond Creek fire for Tuesday, Aug. 8 2017


Monday, August 7, 2017

8/7/2017 Diamond Creek fire Air Resource Advisers have arrived. Air quality forecast for the surrounding area below.


Monday and Tuesday will be like Sunday

For smoke that is, not because of an extended weekend.

The Canadian smoke model had it right yesterday- the inversion over western WA did break in the afternoon, mixing smoke to the Puget Sound lowlands. As winds died down, more smoke built up over the area. Sunset was more colorful than Friday and Saturday. Air was Moderate in most of western WA and Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) or worse in most of eastern WA.

The stark air quality divide across the Cascades persists. The air quality animation of the last few hours shows how areas west of the Cascades have improved compared to eastern WA, eastern OR and south central ID - which still have the ignoble distinction of having the worst air in the country.


Because it has been doing a reasonable job over the last few days, will lean on the Canadian model for guidance. Expecting a repeat of yesterday for both Monday and Tuesday: western WA mostly Moderate, eastern WA mostly USG; Very Unhealthy in areas closer to local fires.

The issue of large differences in pollution levels within a short distance has been raised. It seems reasonable that when smoke from a common source blankets a large area, concentrations should be fairly uniform. If large differences are observed, is it due to malfunctioning monitors?

Malfunctioning equipment is a concern and site operators work hard to ensure accurate and timely data delivery. However even in absence of localized sources, concentration gradients can arise due to differences in topography. Below is a comparison of two pairs of sites within ~15 miles of each other, showing very different levels this morning. The site at Neah Bay is at sea level and the site at Cheeka Peak is about 15 miles south and 1000ft above (difference annotated with a red curly brace). There are no major local sources nearby. The higher terrain is impacted by more smoke from aloft, and the low level inversion keeps Neah Bay somewhat shielded.

Similarly, the Tacoma area ventilated out early this morning but the smoke clung on in the Puyallup valley (annotated with a black curly brace), located about 12 miles east.

Moral of the story: there can be legitimate differences for sharp spatial gradients.

Finally, this graphic from the National Weather Service in Spokane has a succinct message for all of eastern WA:



Sunday, August 6, 2017

Smoke might spare western WA by remaining above, not so further east

Mostly Good (Green) or Moderate (Yellow) air in western WA on Saturday in spite of plenty of smoke over the area as shown by the satellite image of Saturday afternoon.


This is because a temperature inversion is limiting downward mixing. Here's the 5PM temperature sounding from Quillayute on Saturday, showing the inversion:


Models persist with this 3000- 5000 ft inversion through Tuesday, and if that prediction holds, it should keep most of the smoke above. Other models however mix some smoke to surface during the daytime hours on Sunday and Monday, so uncertainty persists. Air could range from Good to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in western WA, with both smoke and smog contributing- more on smog later.

Eastern WA doesnt have such a temperature inversion to keep the smoke aloft, so as long as the northerly flow persists, BC smoke will continue to mix downward. Air quality is not expected to improve a whole lot all week. Although a few Moderate areas might appear occasionally, folks need to be prepared for a repeat of the above map. Air will remain Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, if not worse.

A pattern shift that will help us ventilate out isn't on the cards until Saturday. The 10K ft winds advertised by the European model only turn southwest for the first time in over a week on Saturday morning.

And now about smog: the importance of ground level ozone (O3- the key ingredient of smog; not to be confused with "good" stratospheric ozone) has gotten lost in the midst of all the fine particle pollution concerns. Ozone is not released directly from sources but is formed when certain gases react together in the atmosphere under hot, dry and sunny conditions. It irritates the eyes, nose, throat, and respiratory system and is especially bad for those with chronic heart and lung disease, children and the elderly. A brief summary can be found here.

Wildfires are copious sources of one of the precursor gases and many ozone monitors in WA recorded high levels of ozone over the last few days.



Even when wildfire smoke is taken out of the equation, Washington state continues to have ozone concerns in the Cascade foothills of east King/ Pierce county, and in the Tri-Cities. Several air quality agencies are working with stakeholders to protect the public from this health risk.

Saturday, August 5, 2017

Western Washingtonians can breathe again. For now

YESSS! Most of western Washington is in the Green for the first time in days. A light on-shore wind brought dramatic improvements to our air on Friday evening. A few areas north of Seattle are still not all the way down to Good air, though they're headed in the right direction. For now.

Sadly most of eastern Washington had the very opposite experience: some communities even reached Hazardous levels as stronger north winds blew even more smoke down from Canada. The Methow valley also got hit by smoke from the Diamond Creek fire simultaneously.

Here's how air quality levels changed at a representative smattering of sites across the state. Darker colors = poorer air. Says it all.



Forecast: somewhat uncertain and I'm leaning toward cautious optimism for western WA. First few frames the visible satellite images this morning show the smoke monster looming overhead, ready to blanket western WA with a thin layer of smoke smoke again. Models are not mixing a lot of this smoke to the surface, meaning folks in the lowlands might continue to see pretty sunsets and have maximum temperatures slightly cooler than forecast, without having to breathe the smoke. But there are reasons to be a little less optimistic, especially north of Seattle where a fire near Darrington and another south of Bellingham are adding smoke to the airshed. Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups is a safe bet, with Good to Moderate for the South Sound and southwest WA. Winds will die down causing smoke to linger between now and Monday.

Eastern WA: wish I had better news but the best most communities could hope for is around Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups over the next few days. Many communities have Very Unhealthy air right now and the health precautions cannot be over-stressed. Minimize outdoor exposure, run car and home air conditioners in recirculate mode, wear N95 masks if needed, stay hydrated and consult your physician for personalized health advice.

Friday, August 4, 2017

8/4/2017 Diamond Creek fire to get an Air Resource Advisor

The Diamond Creek fire, deep in the Pasayten Wilderness of north central Washington, is currently the largest and most active wildfire in the state (8,678 acres as of August 4). Because of it's remote and difficult-to-access location, it is likely to continue burning and causing air quality issues for the surrounding area until mother nature sends the firefighters an assist in the form of fall rains. Because of the smoke issues and the expected duration of the fire, the Incident Command team has ordered an Air Resource Adviser to help them inform the local communities about potential smoke impacts from the fire. So in the next couple of days people in the communities of Winthrop, Twisp, Okanogan, and Omak can expect to see some custom air quality information and predictions posted here on the smoke blog and in their communities. In addition, an extra smoke monitor is planned for deployment in Mazama.

8/4/2017 Animals can be affected by poor air quality too

A fairly common question from the public during wildfire smoke episodes is whether pets and other animals are affected by poor air quality, and what can be done to help them stay comfortable and healthy. An article posted today on WSU News and written by Charlie Powell with Washington State University College of Veterinary Medicine addresses this question.

"Mammals lungs are all very similar, and some in other species like birds are extremely sensitive to particulates in the air."


Note: This picture is just posted for a smile -
masks don't work for pets (or humans) with excessive facial hair.

Mild recovery started. And paused

The smoke column was slightly thinner compared to Wednesday.



But sadly the northwest maintains the ignoble distinction of recording the poorest air quality in the lower 48 states. Here's a map of 24-hr average fine particle levels on Thursday, overlaid with polygons of smoke plumes.



Here's an animation of the visible satellite just before sunset on Thursday- really amplifies the smoke sources. Notice how the upper level winds were blowing it eastward. Unfortunately that didn't make its way down to the surface and help ventilate our cities. And... light northeast winds have returned overnight 😒

Although there was a slight improvement in overall air quality yesterday compared to Wednesday, none of our sites managed to drop all the way down to Good. And the 72-hr forecast trajectories (green= 300ft above ground; blue =1500ft above and red= 3000 ft above) seems to suggest that new smoke will mostly stay east of the Cascades. Red triangles on the map are fire locations.


However there are reasons to believe that western WA will experience more smoke from BC over the coming days, perhaps a little less than before. Light onshore flow is expected each day but nowhere near enough to flush out the smoke. Be prepared for air ranging from Moderate to Unhealthy over the next few days.


Eastern WA will be impacted more from BC fires but winds will be stronger and help ventilate the Columbia Basin somewhat. Due to the many local fires, most sites- particularly near the Cascade foothills- will run from Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups and Unhealthy. Far eastern WA might be lucky enough to see some green dots (Good air quality) popping up on the map by Saturday evening.

Don't breathe the smoke while beating the heat! Remember to turn your air conditioners to recirculate mode and use a HEPA filter if needed. Minimize outdoor exposure. Sensitive individuals should wear N95 masks.

Thursday, August 3, 2017

Wildfire Smoke Safety



Smoke from wildfires is affecting much of Washington State. If there is smoke present in your area, follow these recommendations:
  • Check news, social media and local reports for the latest air quality status.
  • Avoid physical activity outdoors when conditions are "unhealthy", "very unhealthy" or “hazardous.”
  • Keep doors and windows closed but be mindful of hot weather. Run air systems/AC on recirculate and the close fresh-air intake. Keep the air in your house clean.
  • You need to take extra care if you have a heart or lung condition, diabetes, are pregnant or over 65, as well as infants and children. Seek medical attention if the smoke is affecting your health.


For more information: http://www.doh.wa.gov/smokefromfires



Humo de los incendios forestales




El humo de los incendios forestales está afectando a gran parte del estado de Washington. Si hay humo en su área, siga estas recomendaciones.
  • Revise las noticias, medios sociales y reportajes locales sobre la calidad del aire.
  • Evite las actividades al aire libre, especialmente cuando la calidad del aire está en las categorías “Dañino, Muy Dañino o Peligroso.”
  • Mantenga las puertas y ventanas cerradas pero tenga cuidado con las altas temperaturas. Corra el AC en recircular y cierre el aire fresco. Mantenga el aire de su casa limpio.
  • Tiene que tener extra cuidado si tiene una enfermedad al corazón o pulmón, tiene diabetes, está embarazada o sobre 65, al igual que los niños e infantes. Busque atención médica si el humo está afectando su salud.





Smoke monster overran Washington but mother nature is fighting back

Wildfire smoke has just swamped us like never before. Here's the satellite picture from Wednesday afternoon:



Don't recall a time when every fine particle monitor in the state recorded poor air for a whole day. Here's how the 24-hr average air quality conditions looked on Wednesday.



Red = Unhealthy, Orange = Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups and Yellow = Moderate.

Zoom out and overlay the smoke layer- wow! In an ironic twist, you can actually go to Los Angeles and breathe easier than in Washington's remote locations!



Not all doom and gloom though. Some models are advertising a shot of northwesterly air this evening and night, which will bring a little relief to western Washington that is so unaccustomed to being overrun by what Prof. Cliff Mass terms "Smokezilla". If this scenario pans out, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few locations from Seattle northward recording Good air overnight. Less pronounced further south, so expect Moderate or Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups overnight.

Winds are expected to pick up a little across the state on Friday. This will both fan the flames (red flag warnings galore) and blow away some smoke. Further improvements are likely in western WA although central and southeast WA are likely to get hit by a mixture of Montana and BC smoke at different times. But lighter winds return over the weekend, which will cause residual smoke to linger. Hard to tell if there will be a fresh infusion of BC wildfire smoke into western WA, but eastern WA will definitely get another dose. More details as the situation evolves.

Please pay attention to avoiding exposure to smoke by minimizing strenuous outdoor activities. Use discretion when opening windows at night to beat the heat, because this also brings poor air indoors.

Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Kittitas County Press Release: Poor Air Quality Conditions Expected to Continue for Several Days

 

 

Kittitas County Press Release

Public Health

For Immediate Release

Poor Air Quality Conditions Expected to Continue for Several Days

Kittitas County, WA - 08/03/2017 - Air quality in Kittitas County was listed as "unhealthy for sensitive groups" as of 8:00am on August 2, 2017 according to the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) air monitor located atop Hal Holmes Community Center in Ellensburg. Smoke as a result of several fires in Washington and British Columbia is affecting the air quality in Kittitas County and is expected to continue for several days.

"Outdoor activities should take place when we have "good" air. When air quality changes to "moderate" or worse, we recommend people start making changes, including moving indoors," asserts Kittitas County Health Officer, Dr. Mark Larson. This recommendation is especially important to consider for outdoor activities currently taking place such as sports camps and practices.  

 

KCPHD wants residents to be aware of current air quality conditions and take necessary steps to avoid negative health effects.  Air quality information can be accessed at any time via the Washington Air Quality Advisory (WAQA) online https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/enviwa/.  WAQA is a tool that measures the air quality with categories ranging from "good" to "hazardous" air.  Additional resources include the following:

 


 

For more information about health concerns relating to air quality or informational resources, please contact KCPHD at (509)-962-7515. 

 

 



 


8.2.17 Poor Air Quality Conditions in Kittitas County.pdf
Air Pollution and School Activities- Public Health REcommendations.pdf

Kittitas County, from the Cascades to the Columbia, and online at http://www.co.kittitas.wa.us

###

For more information:
Contact: Holly Myers, Environmental Health Supervisor, 509-962-7515

 



Notice: Email sent to Kittitas County may be subject to public disclosure as required by law

 



Notice: Email sent to Kittitas County may be subject to public disclosure as required by law




Notice: Email sent to Kittitas County may be subject to public disclosure as required by law