8/2/2017 Citizen Scientists can participate in testing of the "Smoke Sense" mobile application

Anyone with an Android phone in an area affected by wildfire smoke can participate in a study of a new app.  The Smoke Sense app is a publicly available mobile application developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Citizen scientists will be able to use the Smoke Sense app to learn about wildland fires and smoke health risks in their area.  They will then be prompted to anonymously report their health symptoms during wildland fires and the range of actions they are able or willing to take to improve their health condition or lower their exposure.   Users will earn badges each week they participate. 

EPA researchers are conducting the Smoke Sense study to:  1) determine the extent to which exposure to wildland fire smoke affects health and productivity, and 2) develop health risk communication strategies that protect public health during smoke days. 

Download and learn more about the Smoke Sense App at – https://www.epa.gov/air-research/smoke-sense  or at the Google Play store.

**Not yet available for Apple devices.

Smoke is getting cozy here. It blanketed us and plans to stay

Air quality degraded much faster than expected yesterday as the BC wildfire smoke blanketed the state. Here's a progression of satellite pictures taken last afternoon, evening and this morning. Only the high peaks of the Olympics and Cascades are able to stay above the smoke layer.

And a great timelapse from Greg Johnson, looking north from the Kitsap peninsula:

 

Air quality in Washington is among the worst in the country- hardly any communities with Good air. Not good!

So when will things clear out? Short answer: not fast enough.

A strong high pressure system is anchored over the state and is expected to remain well into next week. This will give us warm temperatures, abundant (smoke- filtered) sunshine, north/northeast winds in western WA, and north/ east winds in eastern WA. Crucially, no substantial west/ southwest winds on the horizon to flush out smoke.

So sadly statewide air quality is expected to vary between Moderate to Unhealthy at different times for the next several days. Instances of Very Unhealthy air cannot be ruled out. Slight improvements can be expected during the daytime, poor air at night.

As always please pay attention to the health warnings and precautions listed on our blog page.

8/1/2017 Afternoon satellite image of smoke over Washington

The Tuesday afternoon satellite image from today shows the extent of the smoke episode over Washington caused largely by smoke coming in from Canada and spreading south. More of the state monitors are now showing deteriorating air quality and conditions will likely get worse before they improve. (The corner of the state that is white? It's still waiting for the satellite to pass over.)

Monitor conditions as of 2pm Aug. 1

Follow the link below to see an animation of predicted smoke movement from the Canadian fires through tomorrow afternoon. (You may need to click on the right facing triangle under the image to start the animation.) It looks like much of the state will experience impacts.

https://weather.gc.ca/firework/firework_anim_e.html?type=em&utc=00

8/1/2017 What is impacting air quality in north central Washington?

We have some fires burning in Washington but it's a pretty good guess that much of the smoke impacts we're seeing in the north central part of the state are coming from Canada again. The image below is a satellite view from yesterday (today's image will be available later this afternoon) and you can see there is vastly more smoke lurking north of the border than is being produced by wildfires in our state. The second image shows all the fire activity they are still dealing with in Canada.

In Washington, the Diamond Creek fire in the Pasayten wilderness has been sending smoke into Winthrop and Twisp for the last week or so but the air quality impacts in Omak and Okanogan are probably due to smoke draining down the Okanogan valley from Canada. A new fire - the Suiattle fire - outside of Darrington is impacting air quality locally.

Brace yourselves, smoke is on its way

North winds and then east winds by mid- week. Smells of smoke. Even in western Washington.

Statewide air quality is mostly Good at present, except for the Methow valley and Darrington. Previous forecast for the Methow is expected to remain valid for the next few days.

Smoke from the Suiattle fire has caused air in Darrington to degrade to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. Some relief is expected during the daytime hours today but smoke will likely remain trapped in the valleys overnight and worsen when the morning inversion breaks. Air quality is expected to vary between Moderate and Unhealthy over the next few days, depending on fire activity.

The big story is that the north winds are transporting smoke from British Columbia wildfires into northern Washington. Satellites show that large plumes have already crossed the northern border and will likely impact communities in Okanogan and Whatcom counties between now and Wednesday. Expect air quality to vary between Good and Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. Some models (see forward trajectories at different heights) suggest this smoke could push all the way down to King County by late Tuesday. We will be watching this closely.

Forecast models show smoke draining further into central WA by mid- week, so communities along the Okanogan river valley should brace for Moderate or poorer air.

Please take a look at the "Smoke and Health" section of this blog, which provides several resources to protect yourself from the harmful effects of smoke.

On the bright side, smoke plumes that remain aloft will offer a little relief from the oppressive heat by providing a thin sun shield that lowers temperatures a degree or two. And they will cause pretty sunsets.

Winds turn easterly from Wednesday onward and while this might reduce the BC smoke faucet, it will likely transport smoke from western Montana to eastern Washington. More on this in the next update.

Way more smoke in the Methow Valley. Not much change over the weekend

The Diamond Creek fire north of Mazama appears to have been annoyed by something: it puffed up way more smoke last night than it did in the past few days.

While smoke drained into the Methow as expected, the amount of smoke was an unpleasant surprise. Air quality in Winthrop has been Unhealthy since midnight and Twisp quickly caught up when the morning inversion broke. Expect some gradual improvement during the day, but not hopeful it will get any better than Moderate today.

A repeat of last night and this morning beckons on Friday and Saturday nights into the following morning, because winds will be terrain- driven each day. Slightly stronger winds on Sunday will help disperse the smoke, leading to Good to Moderate AQ in the Methow.

Northern WA and Lewis Clark Valley smoke forecast

Several areas in north central and north eastern Washington saw periods of Moderate air over the last 2 days. While smoke from the Diamond Creek fire north of Mazama has been hitting the Methow valley,  the Noisy Creek and Bissell fires caused smoke in the northeast. Clarkston got hit by smoke from the Craig Mountain Complex fire as the nighttime inversion broke this morning.

East winds are unlikely in the coming days, and since the Craig Mountain Complex fire is now almost fully contained, mostly Good air quality is likely in the Lewis- Clark valley.

If the Diamond Creek fire continues to produce smoke, winds are very likely to keep the Methow Valley somewhat smoky. Here's a snapshot of what we call 'ensemble forward trajectories': it shows how air masses at different heights are likely to travel forward from a certain location. Starting at 11PM tonight, air upto about 1500 feet is likely to drain via the Methow valley over the next 12 hours, bringing smoke from the fire down to ground level. The "ensemble" part refers to how different forecast models characterize the same scenario. The colored lines represent the means of all such models for each release height.

Good consensus that the Methow lies downwind of the fire tonight. Expect Moderate air at night and mostly Good as the day progresses. If smoke is released above 1500 ft, it is possible that some could circle around and mix down when the temperature inversion breaks in the morning. This could lead to Moderate air around Omak and Okanogan, with gradual improvement during the day.

Weekend and beyond are shaping up to be hot with light winds. Here's a snapshot of an ultra-cool animation of temperatures and winds at 2500 ft on Sunday afternoon (not much different to Saturday).

Smoke impacts over the weekend will depend on fire activity. If the status quo persists, the above forecast should be good through Monday.

Expect smoke in eastern Washington, western WA just about escapes a dose

Smoke in the Methow valley and lower Yakima county is in the process of dissipating over the next few hours as north winds pick up speed. Air quality should be mostly Good around the state through the day, but splotches of Moderate and Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups will return tonight, mostly around Mazama, Winthrop, White Swan, Toppenish, Sunnyside, Hunters and Davenport.

While strong winds blow away the smoke, they have their own agenda:

Some forecast models suggest Canadian wildfire smoke will get caught up in the northerly winds tonight. Winds are expected to shift to the east briefly, bringing this smoke perilously close to the Cascade crest. But this flow pattern is unlikely to persist for long enough to push smoke into western WA. Neither are they likely to blow smoke from fires in western Montana, all the way to far eastern Washington.

Tuesday should see a lighter winds so smoke impacts will be mostly near the fires. Expect Good air statewide with a few areas of Moderate overnight into Wednesday.

7/18/2017 Smoke in Northern WA coming in from large BC fires

The smoke issues we are seeing in parts of Washington are due to large areas of wildfire to the north of us in British Columbia where 40,000 people have been forced from their homes. Our blog map shows the widespread fire detects obtained from satellites (zoom out on the blog map or click on the link below it that says "full map"). They may get some rain by Thursday. All the best to our northern neighbors.

Some news on the fires here:
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/07/18/537852651/wildfires-rage-through-british-columbia-forcing-40-000-from-their-homes

More smoke in north Central WA than expected

Contrary to expectations, some smoke from BC wildfires did mix down to the surface yesterday. Air quality hovered between Moderate and Unhealthy at several locations in northern Washington since Monday morning.

Here's the satellite picture from Monday afternoon. White streaks are clouds, light grey patches are smoke and red dots are fire locations.

Not expecting a strong wind shift through Wednesday evening, so northern WA should continue to see more of the same today, although smoke in northern Whatcom county could start clearing sooner. Air quality in many communities of northern Okanogan, Ferry, Stevens and Pend Oreille could degrade to Unhealthy levels today and tomorrow. Some marginal relief is possible in a few areas tonight.

Winds pick up and change direction by Wednesday night but this is a mixed blessing because it brings the risk of dry lightning, which could mean new wildfires. A Red Flag Warning has been issued to address this. Blowing dust on Thursday morning is likely across the Columbia Basin.

More fires and a little more smoke

Numerous fires burning in eastern WA, the largest of which is the Snake River fire near Pomeroy. Air quality in the Lewis- Clark valley has been poor over the last two days and is likely to hover between Moderate and USG over the next few days.

The NOAA HMS Fire and Smoke satellite image shows light smoke from Canadian and Alaskan wildfires over Washington state, but most of it remains aloft. Not expecting strong downward mixing this week so very unlikely that we'll have to inhale much of it. And no, it wont be dense enough to cause spectacular sunsets.

Light north winds are expected across the Columbia Basin today, meaning smoke is likely to drift into the basin. Winds will be driven by daytime heating/ nighttime cooling through Wednesday so not expecting smoke to travel very far from its original sources. Air quality should be mostly Good statewide, except close to fires when periods of Moderate and USG can be expected overnight, with some clearing during the day.

Living Dangerously in the Era of Megafires - TED Talk

Many of you may have seen the recent presentation by Dr. Paul Hessburg on the Era of Megafires.  In this presentation, Dr. Hessburg provides an explanation of why wildfires have been growing in the the western united states.  Recently, a condensed version of the presentation was made into a Ted Talk which is now on Youtube.  Its called Living Dangerously in the Era of Megafires.  You can search for it by title on Youtube or access it by clicking this link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edDZNkm8Mas&t=14s.   Or to see it in person, check out the schedule from North 40 Productions website at http://www.north40productions.com/wildfire.

BC wildfire smoke still affecting north central WA

The Methow Valley is very hazy as shown by the Sun Mountain Lodge webcam.

Pollution levels spiked in many areas in and around over Okanogan county today and has commenced its slow daytime decline.

The fire in British Columbia mentioned in the previous post continues to be the culprit, with smoke mixing to the surface when the overnight temperature inversion breaks. The satellite picture this morning shows smoke pouring down the Okanogan river valley.

Air quality in the area is expected to vary between Moderate and Unhealthy in the area with a slow improvement over the rest of today. Winds are expected to shift to the southwest and help return the smoke back to Canada with a "no thank you" note. But smoke lodged in more sheltered valleys might have a harder time getting scrubbed out, so expect areas of Moderate to USG to persist until tomorrow.

Rest of the state should see mostly Good air for the next few days, except close to some fires where Moderate or USG conditions can be expected during overnight hours.

BC wildfire smoke affecting northern WA

Smoke from a fire near Princeton, BC has been affecting parts of Okanogan, Ferry and Stevens counties over the last few mornings. This afternoon's satellite picture shows smoke from the (circled) fire.

The fine particle pollution monitor in Omak bears out the evidence most prominently. Notice how levels spiked over the last 3 mornings.

This happens when (1) northwest flows overnight transport smoke into the area via the Okan(a)ogan river valley, followed by (2) the inversion layer breaking up as the morning sun heats the ground, and (3) smoke aloft mixes to the surface. But daytime winds switch to the southwest and help dissipate smoke- albeit slowly. 

Expect another round of the same smoke behavior in the north central counties from Sunday to Tuesday. Periods of Moderate and USG air are likely during the overnight and morning hours. Unhealthy air in communities such as Oroville and Tonasket cannot be ruled out.

And finally, be prepared for more fire concerns on Sunday, followed by a progressively hotter work week.

Smoke forecast Friday 7/7- Monday 7/10

Currently air quality is mostly Good statewide, with a few Moderate areas sprinkled in. There are several brush fires burning and air quality is likely to be compromised closer to them.

Of immediate concern is the Red Flag Warning for much of eastern WA today. This graphic from the National Weather Service says it all:

A fair amount of fuels in WA are dry enough to burn, as indicated by the FPI index below (OK nothing like the desert southwest!)

While stronger winds will transport smoke from fires around the Cascade Foothills to parts of the Columbia Basin, fine particle pollution (PM2.5) is likely to be somewhat dispersed and I dont expect air quality to degrade much worse than Moderate later today. However as winds lighten over the weekend, communities such as Wenatchee, Quincy and Sunnyside could potentially see a few hours of Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) air, mostly at night and early morning. Expect mostly Good to Moderate air in other areas of eastern Washington.

No major storms or winds are expected over the next week. Temperatures are expected to remain close to or just above normal. Firefighting isnt going to be easy so lets do our best to prevent fires.

Residual smoke from fireworks in western WA today

Light winds in much of Washington over the last 2 days caused smoke from fireworks to accumulate in many communities.  The chart below shows fine particle pollution levels spiking after 6PM on the 4th of July. A smaller spike was observed on the 3rd.

Pollution levels are still dissipating and we expect Good air quality to return later today.

Smoke from any new fires that started in the last day, whether due to fireworks or other reasons, will likely be confined to nearby areas as winds are expected to remain light until about Thursday evening. Expect mostly Good air quality statewide, with a few Moderate periods.

Smoke forecast for Independence Day holiday

Biggest concern is the dry, gusty winds expected along the east slopes of the central Cascades through tonight. There is a strong possibility of rapid fire spread and a Red Flag Warning has been issued.

Smoke from fires east and west of Yakima is expected to blow across the central and northeastern Columbia Basin today but air quality is expected to remain mostly Good, except right by the fires where Moderate or Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups can occur overnight.

As winds die down and temperatures ramp up on and after the 4th of July, smoke from existing and new fires is likely to linger in the area. Some cities in Yakima county could see Moderate or USG conditions at times.

No major smoke concerns are expected in western Washington over this period. Have a safe and happy 4th of July!

6/28/17 Wildfire smoke affecting Grant, Douglas, Kittitas counties

Smoke from wildfires southeast of Wenatchee and northwest of Quincy are causing air quality conditions from Moderate to Unhealthy in Grant and Douglas counties. The Sutherland Canyon, Spartan, and Straight Hollow fires are approximately 10-30% contained, but gusty winds are in the forecast, likely to push smoke into Douglas County and northern Grant County today, June 28, and towards Kittitas County and Wenatchee after 1PM on June 29. View fire details and possible evacuation information at the "Where's the Fire" tab above or visit InciWeb.



Locations of fire as of this post, June 28 approximately 11AM.
See more details in the interactive map at the top of the blog page.

 

6/26/17 Smoke Blog Update

We’re back for the 2017 Wildfire Season.  We’ve already had a few fast moving fires in Central WA over the past week and the forecast today http://www.youtube.com/NWSSpokane  looks like high potential for rapid fire growth if we get any new ignitions. May see some localized dust issues with high winds forecasted in front of these fast moving weather systems. High wildfire potential in areas with numerous lightning strikes, high winds and fine fuels like sage shrub steppe and the Eastern WA landscape. Please be sure to stay tuned to local emergency management and watch the local news for updates on any new fires.  These fires don’t typically cause widespread and long lasting smoke events but can move fast and cause localized evacuations and visibility issues on roads as well as localized health impacts from blowing dust and smoke.

Remember stay safe over the 4^th of July weekend and follow all local fire safety burn bans and firework regulations.

Today’s Modis Satellite Image (11am) No visible smoke plumes but lots of active weather.

9/13/2016 Using Prescribed Fire and Measuring Impacts to Air Quality

In the Spring of 2016, the Washington State Legislature passed House Bill 2928, the Forest Resiliency Burning Pilot project. The goal of the pilot project is to examine the role that prescribed fire can play in creating healthier, more resilient forests. Of course prescribed fires produce smoke, so one important part of the pilot is monitoring the quantity and severity of any air quality impairment caused by the prescribed fires.

A major challenge when using prescribed fire is to simultaneously protect air quality from the inevitable smoke that is produced. To the greatest extent possible, prescribed fires are planned for days when winds and weather will keep smoke away from populated areas. Although sometimes the best days to safely use fire in the forests are not the best days to protect air quality.

Most of the proposed pilot burns are in fairly remote parts of the state meaning some small, nearby communities are not well represented by the extensive permanent air quality monitoring network operated by the Washington Department of Ecology. To determine the effect of prescribed burning on air quality in these more remote parts of the state, nine new temporary air quality monitors have been deployed to supplement the permanent monitoring network already in operation. New monitors have been placed in Curlew, Kettle Falls, Sherman Creek Hatchery, Usk, Manson, Plain, Liberty, Naches, and Nile. In addition, permanent monitors in Winthrop, Chelan, and Leavenworth will be scrutinized for smoke impacts from forest resiliency burning (see image below). Many of the temporary monitors now also display on our blog map (above) as triangles.

Washington Department of Natural Resources is leading the effort with the help of many partner agencies and organizations. More about the Forest Resiliency Burning Pilot can be found here: http://www.putfiretowork.org/