8/2/2017 Citizen Scientists can participate in testing of the "Smoke Sense" mobile application

Anyone with an Android phone in an area affected by wildfire smoke can participate in a study of a new app.  The Smoke Sense app is a publicly available mobile application developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Citizen scientists will be able to use the Smoke Sense app to learn about wildland fires and smoke health risks in their area.  They will then be prompted to anonymously report their health symptoms during wildland fires and the range of actions they are able or willing to take to improve their health condition or lower their exposure.   Users will earn badges each week they participate. 

EPA researchers are conducting the Smoke Sense study to:  1) determine the extent to which exposure to wildland fire smoke affects health and productivity, and 2) develop health risk communication strategies that protect public health during smoke days. 

Download and learn more about the Smoke Sense App at – https://www.epa.gov/air-research/smoke-sense  or at the Google Play store.

**Not yet available for Apple devices.

Smoke is getting cozy here. It blanketed us and plans to stay

Air quality degraded much faster than expected yesterday as the BC wildfire smoke blanketed the state. Here's a progression of satellite pictures taken last afternoon, evening and this morning. Only the high peaks of the Olympics and Cascades are able to stay above the smoke layer.

And a great timelapse from Greg Johnson, looking north from the Kitsap peninsula:

 

Air quality in Washington is among the worst in the country- hardly any communities with Good air. Not good!

So when will things clear out? Short answer: not fast enough.

A strong high pressure system is anchored over the state and is expected to remain well into next week. This will give us warm temperatures, abundant (smoke- filtered) sunshine, north/northeast winds in western WA, and north/ east winds in eastern WA. Crucially, no substantial west/ southwest winds on the horizon to flush out smoke.

So sadly statewide air quality is expected to vary between Moderate to Unhealthy at different times for the next several days. Instances of Very Unhealthy air cannot be ruled out. Slight improvements can be expected during the daytime, poor air at night.

As always please pay attention to the health warnings and precautions listed on our blog page.

8/1/2017 Afternoon satellite image of smoke over Washington

The Tuesday afternoon satellite image from today shows the extent of the smoke episode over Washington caused largely by smoke coming in from Canada and spreading south. More of the state monitors are now showing deteriorating air quality and conditions will likely get worse before they improve. (The corner of the state that is white? It's still waiting for the satellite to pass over.)

Monitor conditions as of 2pm Aug. 1

Follow the link below to see an animation of predicted smoke movement from the Canadian fires through tomorrow afternoon. (You may need to click on the right facing triangle under the image to start the animation.) It looks like much of the state will experience impacts.

https://weather.gc.ca/firework/firework_anim_e.html?type=em&utc=00

8/1/2017 What is impacting air quality in north central Washington?

We have some fires burning in Washington but it's a pretty good guess that much of the smoke impacts we're seeing in the north central part of the state are coming from Canada again. The image below is a satellite view from yesterday (today's image will be available later this afternoon) and you can see there is vastly more smoke lurking north of the border than is being produced by wildfires in our state. The second image shows all the fire activity they are still dealing with in Canada.

In Washington, the Diamond Creek fire in the Pasayten wilderness has been sending smoke into Winthrop and Twisp for the last week or so but the air quality impacts in Omak and Okanogan are probably due to smoke draining down the Okanogan valley from Canada. A new fire - the Suiattle fire - outside of Darrington is impacting air quality locally.

Brace yourselves, smoke is on its way

North winds and then east winds by mid- week. Smells of smoke. Even in western Washington.

Statewide air quality is mostly Good at present, except for the Methow valley and Darrington. Previous forecast for the Methow is expected to remain valid for the next few days.

Smoke from the Suiattle fire has caused air in Darrington to degrade to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. Some relief is expected during the daytime hours today but smoke will likely remain trapped in the valleys overnight and worsen when the morning inversion breaks. Air quality is expected to vary between Moderate and Unhealthy over the next few days, depending on fire activity.

The big story is that the north winds are transporting smoke from British Columbia wildfires into northern Washington. Satellites show that large plumes have already crossed the northern border and will likely impact communities in Okanogan and Whatcom counties between now and Wednesday. Expect air quality to vary between Good and Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. Some models (see forward trajectories at different heights) suggest this smoke could push all the way down to King County by late Tuesday. We will be watching this closely.

Forecast models show smoke draining further into central WA by mid- week, so communities along the Okanogan river valley should brace for Moderate or poorer air.

Please take a look at the "Smoke and Health" section of this blog, which provides several resources to protect yourself from the harmful effects of smoke.

On the bright side, smoke plumes that remain aloft will offer a little relief from the oppressive heat by providing a thin sun shield that lowers temperatures a degree or two. And they will cause pretty sunsets.

Winds turn easterly from Wednesday onward and while this might reduce the BC smoke faucet, it will likely transport smoke from western Montana to eastern Washington. More on this in the next update.

Way more smoke in the Methow Valley. Not much change over the weekend

The Diamond Creek fire north of Mazama appears to have been annoyed by something: it puffed up way more smoke last night than it did in the past few days.

While smoke drained into the Methow as expected, the amount of smoke was an unpleasant surprise. Air quality in Winthrop has been Unhealthy since midnight and Twisp quickly caught up when the morning inversion broke. Expect some gradual improvement during the day, but not hopeful it will get any better than Moderate today.

A repeat of last night and this morning beckons on Friday and Saturday nights into the following morning, because winds will be terrain- driven each day. Slightly stronger winds on Sunday will help disperse the smoke, leading to Good to Moderate AQ in the Methow.

Northern WA and Lewis Clark Valley smoke forecast

Several areas in north central and north eastern Washington saw periods of Moderate air over the last 2 days. While smoke from the Diamond Creek fire north of Mazama has been hitting the Methow valley,  the Noisy Creek and Bissell fires caused smoke in the northeast. Clarkston got hit by smoke from the Craig Mountain Complex fire as the nighttime inversion broke this morning.

East winds are unlikely in the coming days, and since the Craig Mountain Complex fire is now almost fully contained, mostly Good air quality is likely in the Lewis- Clark valley.

If the Diamond Creek fire continues to produce smoke, winds are very likely to keep the Methow Valley somewhat smoky. Here's a snapshot of what we call 'ensemble forward trajectories': it shows how air masses at different heights are likely to travel forward from a certain location. Starting at 11PM tonight, air upto about 1500 feet is likely to drain via the Methow valley over the next 12 hours, bringing smoke from the fire down to ground level. The "ensemble" part refers to how different forecast models characterize the same scenario. The colored lines represent the means of all such models for each release height.

Good consensus that the Methow lies downwind of the fire tonight. Expect Moderate air at night and mostly Good as the day progresses. If smoke is released above 1500 ft, it is possible that some could circle around and mix down when the temperature inversion breaks in the morning. This could lead to Moderate air around Omak and Okanogan, with gradual improvement during the day.

Weekend and beyond are shaping up to be hot with light winds. Here's a snapshot of an ultra-cool animation of temperatures and winds at 2500 ft on Sunday afternoon (not much different to Saturday).

Smoke impacts over the weekend will depend on fire activity. If the status quo persists, the above forecast should be good through Monday.

Expect smoke in eastern Washington, western WA just about escapes a dose

Smoke in the Methow valley and lower Yakima county is in the process of dissipating over the next few hours as north winds pick up speed. Air quality should be mostly Good around the state through the day, but splotches of Moderate and Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups will return tonight, mostly around Mazama, Winthrop, White Swan, Toppenish, Sunnyside, Hunters and Davenport.

While strong winds blow away the smoke, they have their own agenda:

Some forecast models suggest Canadian wildfire smoke will get caught up in the northerly winds tonight. Winds are expected to shift to the east briefly, bringing this smoke perilously close to the Cascade crest. But this flow pattern is unlikely to persist for long enough to push smoke into western WA. Neither are they likely to blow smoke from fires in western Montana, all the way to far eastern Washington.

Tuesday should see a lighter winds so smoke impacts will be mostly near the fires. Expect Good air statewide with a few areas of Moderate overnight into Wednesday.

7/18/2017 Smoke in Northern WA coming in from large BC fires

The smoke issues we are seeing in parts of Washington are due to large areas of wildfire to the north of us in British Columbia where 40,000 people have been forced from their homes. Our blog map shows the widespread fire detects obtained from satellites (zoom out on the blog map or click on the link below it that says "full map"). They may get some rain by Thursday. All the best to our northern neighbors.

Some news on the fires here:
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/07/18/537852651/wildfires-rage-through-british-columbia-forcing-40-000-from-their-homes

More smoke in north Central WA than expected

Contrary to expectations, some smoke from BC wildfires did mix down to the surface yesterday. Air quality hovered between Moderate and Unhealthy at several locations in northern Washington since Monday morning.

Here's the satellite picture from Monday afternoon. White streaks are clouds, light grey patches are smoke and red dots are fire locations.

Not expecting a strong wind shift through Wednesday evening, so northern WA should continue to see more of the same today, although smoke in northern Whatcom county could start clearing sooner. Air quality in many communities of northern Okanogan, Ferry, Stevens and Pend Oreille could degrade to Unhealthy levels today and tomorrow. Some marginal relief is possible in a few areas tonight.

Winds pick up and change direction by Wednesday night but this is a mixed blessing because it brings the risk of dry lightning, which could mean new wildfires. A Red Flag Warning has been issued to address this. Blowing dust on Thursday morning is likely across the Columbia Basin.