Air Quality Forecast-NE Washington Regional Fires- Tuesday September 15, 2015

Air Quality Forecast-NE Washington Regional Fires- Tuesday September 15, 2015

Prepared by Mark Fitch (mfitch@nps.gov), Air Resource Advisor & Carolyn Kelly (ckelly8384@gmail.com), Air Resource Advisor Trainee

Smoke Summary: The passing cold front will continue to bring cooler temperatures and breezy conditions are expected to last through Thursday. Spotty showers are possible but most likely Wednesday night into Thursday. Cool and showery conditions can be expected through the week. Burn out operations are ongoing. Interior islands and pockets will continue to smolder and burn for the next few weeks. Light smoke and haze can be expected around these areas.  Air quality will range anywhere from good to unhealthy for sensitive groups in the morning hours, improving in late afternoon to early evening.   Extended Outlook:  Changing weather patterns and forecasted rain should lower fire activity leading to improved air quality over the NE region of Washington. Drier, fall-like conditions can be expected Friday into the weekend. *Monitoring stations for Tonasket, Orient, and Kettle Falls have been shut down due to machine malfunction as of 09/10/2015.
Site	Air Quality			Comments
	September 14 Monday	September 15 Tuesday	September 16 Wednesday
Spokane Metro	Good	Good	Good	Communities nearest to the fires may see some haze and smoke from burnout activities on local fires.
Davenport	Good	Good	Good
Colville	Good	Good	Good
Kettle Falls*	Good	Good	Good
Wellpinit	Good	Good	Good
Orient*	Good	Good	Good
Inchelium	Good	Good	Good
Omak	Good	Moderate	Moderate	Early morning hours may be in the USG range but expect good to moderate depending on local winds.
Nespelem	Good	Moderate	Good
Republic**	Good	Moderate	Moderate
Tonasket*	Good	Good	Good
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  The air quality outlook is based on data from automated instruments that have not been subjected to a quality assurance review. AQI’s estimated for sites with air monitors.

For information on what each Air Quality Index color code means, click on the “Smoke and Health” tab above.

Wildfire smoke forecast through Wednesday 16 September

Air quality in eastern Washington hovered between Good to Moderate over the weekend, with worse air close to the fires. Warm weather did increase smoke production at several fires, and while fire lines have held steady, some new but small fires have sprung up.

While large scale smoke build-ups are not expected over the first half of this week, the onset of significant rain and wind has been delayed to Wednesday evening. Some light east winds are expected on Tuesday night and this is expected to drive some smoke toward the eastern foothills of the Cascades. Some models even hint at small amounts of smoke in western WA.

Between now and Wednesday afternoon, Ellensburg, Yakima and Goldendale could see Moderate to USG air at times while remaining areas are likely to vary between Good and Moderate. Winds are likely to pick up after that but valley communities will probably be slower to scour out. Good air is expected statewide by Thursday.

9/14/2015 - View in Republic, WA

*High clouds overhead, but Republic is seeing improved air quality this morning!

For up to date views, visit: http://rcabletv.com/cam_republic.html

Air Quality Forecast-NE Washington Regional Fires- Monday September 14, 2015

Air Quality Forecast-NE Washington Regional Fires- Monday September 14, 2015

Prepared by Mark Fitch (mfitch@nps.gov), Air Resource Advisor & Carolyn Kelly (ckelly8384@gmail.com), Air Resource Advisor Trainee

Smoke Summary: The high pressure that dominated the weather the last few days gave way to a cold front Sunday afternoon.  The passing dry cold front will bring much cooler temperatures and breezy conditions and there is a chance of rain by Wednesday. Upper air winds are forecasted to increase helping transport smoke out of the local area. Fires remain active Monday, as firefighters work to contain open lines.  Air quality will range anywhere from good to unhealthy for sensitive groups in the morning hours, improving in late afternoon to early evening. The North Star is at 215,406 acres, Tunk Block 163,096 acres, Okanogan Complex 133,142 acres. Caution: Potential smoke on highway 21, expected to clear by the afternoon; use caution. Extended Outlook:  Cooler temperatures and with a slight raise in nighttime humidity is expected to continue through early this week.  Moderate instability may increase fire activity and smoke. *Monitoring stations for Tonasket, Orient, and Kettle Falls have been shut down due to machine malfunction as of 09/10/2015.       **The Republic monitor has been replaced**
Site	Air Quality			Comments
	September 13 Sunday	September 14 Monday	September 15 Tuesday
Spokane Metro	Good	Good	Good	Smoke from burnout activities on local fires may affect nearby communities.  Air quality is expected to improve by the afternoon, as the winds increase.
Davenport	Good	Good	Good
Colville	Good	Good	Good
Kettle Falls*	Good	Good	Good
Wellpinit	Good	Good	Good
Orient*	Moderate	Good	Good
Inchelium	Moderate	Good	Good
Omak	Moderate	Moderate	Good	Early morning hours may be in the USG range but expect good to moderate depending on local winds.  Light winds will suppress smoke transport. Expect local valleys to contain dense smoke conditions but improving during but, with hazy conditions through the day.
Nespelem	USG	Moderate	Moderate
Republic**	USG	Moderate	Good
Tonasket*	Moderate	Good	Good
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  The air quality outlook is based on data from automated instruments that have not been subjected to a quality assurance review. AQI’s estimated for sites with air monitors.

Webcam in Republic WA: http://rcabletv.com/cam_republic.html

For information on what each Air Quality Index color code means, click on the “Smoke and Health” tab above.

9/13/2015_AirQuality Update NE Washington Regional Fires

09/12/2015_Air Quality Update NE Washington Regional Fires

Air Quality Update for NE Washington Regional Fires, September 10, 2015

Mark Fitch (mfitch@nps.gov) ) Air Resource Advisors

 

The picture below is of the BlueSky prediction model for smoke dispersion from the North Star firing operations and flare-ups for 5 P.M. today. Smoke from the North Star is lingering over the burn area, drifting to the northeast, as the west-southwest winds as a cold front approaches.

 

The webcam from Republic shows smoke haze covers the town with reduce visibility.

 

09/12/2014-Air Quality Forecast NE Washington Regional Fires

09/11/2015 Smoke Monitor in Republic is Malfunctioning

The temporary smoke monitor that was placed in Republic has been malfunctioning today. It has been reading mostly zero's for smoke levels and the triangle on the map is green but we know that's not true. The current instrument is to be removed soon - perhaps later Friday evening - and then replaced with a working monitor on Saturday. In the meantime, the local webcam can give you an idea of conditions - during the daylight at least.
http://rcabletv.com/cam_republic.html

09/11/2015-Air Quality Forecast NE Washington Regional Fires

click to print summary

09/10/2015 Air Quality Update-NE Washington Regional Fires

Air Quality Update for NE Washington Regional Fires, September 10, 2015

Mark Fitch (mfitch@nps.gov) and Karen Dillman (kdillman@fs.fed.us) Air Resource Advisors

 

The picture below is of the BlueSky prediction model for smoke dispersion from the North Star firing operations and flare-ups for 5 P.M. today. Smoke from the North Star is lingering over the burn area and we are monitoring it closely to see where it may travel, either into the town of Republic or to other low lying areas.

 

 

 

This picture is downtown Republic. The smoke from the firing operations is beginning to drift N to NE. This view is looking south.