09/10/2015 Air Quality Update-NE Washington Regional Fires

Air Quality Update for NE Washington Regional Fires, September 10, 2015

Mark Fitch (mfitch@nps.gov) and Karen Dillman (kdillman@fs.fed.us) Air Resource Advisors

 

The picture below is of the BlueSky prediction model for smoke dispersion from the North Star firing operations and flare-ups for 5 P.M. today. Smoke from the North Star is lingering over the burn area and we are monitoring it closely to see where it may travel, either into the town of Republic or to other low lying areas.

 

 

 

This picture is downtown Republic. The smoke from the firing operations is beginning to drift N to NE. This view is looking south.

 

 

09/10/2015-Air Quality Forecast, NE Washington Regional Fires

 

 

The air quality monitor in Tonasket had readings that were suspiciously high in the early morning hours so we plan to investigate this anomaly in the data today.

Click here for a summary to print

Smoke outlook through Monday 14 September

Good air quality persists in most of eastern Washington although areas close to fires have been seeing patches of Unhealthy air. Recent rains, followed by cooler and cloudy weather has allowed firefighters to make good progress.

Here is a map of the total rainfall received statewide over the last 2 weeks. Not all wildfires in eastern WA got a good dousing, but crucially, weather conditions have not been conducive for fire growth and allowed firefighters to make much progress.

Warmer and drier weather through this weekend may allow some of these fires to become more active, although extreme fire behavior is not expected. Smoke production is likely to increase a little. Light winds with strong nighttime inversions will allow accumulated smoke to linger on. Light east winds are expected through the Columbia Basin and could transport a little smoke from Idaho into parts of eastern Washington. By Saturday, there could be several areas in the Columbia Basin and the Lewis-Clark Valley with Moderate or USG air quality.

However the forecast is for increased and cooler west-northwest winds Saturday evening through Monday, so that should help return air quality to mostly Good. Looks like a bigger, potentially season-ending rain event is on the cards for next Tuesday.

09/09/2015 Air Quality Forecast NE Washington Regional Fires

 

Click here to print this summary 

 

 

Webcam for a current snapshot of Republic  http://rcabletv.com/cam_republic.html

09/08/2015 Air Quality Forecast NE Washington Regional Fires

 

09/07/2015 Air Quality Forecast – NE Washington Regional Fires

Air Quality Forecast – NE Washington Regional Fires - Monday, September 7, 2015.

Prepared by:   Mark Fitch (mfitch@nps.gov) & Karen Dillman (kdillman@fs.fed.us)

Smoke Summary: Light downslope winds Monday turning to the SW in the afternoon. Inversion will cap smoke and minimize transport in the morning, lifting in the afternoon. A trend of warmer temperatures forecasted, with a slight chance of light scattered rain on Tuesday. Expect some elevated smoke levels in Republic from the north end of the North Star fire throughout the day.  Okanogan and Nespelem may see early morning impacts from local fires.
Site	Air Quality			Comments
	September 6 Sunday	September 7 Monday	September 8 Tuesday
Spokane Metro	Good	Good	Good
Davenport	Good	Good	Good
Colville	Good	Good	Good
Kettle Falls	Good	Good	Good
Wellpinit	Good	Good	Good
Inchelium	Good	Good	Good
Omak	Good	Good	Good
Orient	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Morning smoke settling in communities due to night inversions, clearing in afternoons.
Republic	USG	USG	Moderate
Tonasket	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
Nespelem	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  The air quality outlook is based on data from automated instruments that have not been subjected to a quality assurance review. AQI’s estimated for sites with air monitors.

For up to date information about smoke in Washington State, visit http://wasmoke.blogspot.com/ 

For information on what each Air Quality Index color code means, visit the smoke blog, click on 

the “Smoke and Health” tab

09/06/2015 Air Quality Forecast for NE Washington Regional

Click here for a pdf of report

09/05/2015 Air Quality Forecast for NE Washington Regional

Click here to print the summary

Wildfire smoke forecast through Labor Day weekend

This week's dramatic improvement in eastern Washington's air quality will be partly sustained through the Labor Day weekend. "Partly" because it wont be as great as what we saw Monday through Thursday, but it wont be anywhere as bad as it was a week ago. Here's why:

Notice the huge improvement that occurred on Sunday 30 August, but also observe how some areas have started creeping up in the last day or so. These monitors are all located very close to the fires, and in spite of lower fire activity and an active weather pattern, the communities of Orient, Nespelem, Republic, Kettle Falls and Colville aren't seeing Good air at present. Air quality in these communities is not expected to be very different between now and Monday.

We might see some smoke from ID fires along the ID-WA border today but it shouldn’t linger beyond Saturday morning. However the Lewis- Clark valley might not clear out easily on Saturday so Moderate to USG conditions are possible there. Yakima, Klickitat and Benton Counties are likely to see Good air.

Sunday & Monday are likely to see mostly Good air except very close to the fires, though some Moderate to USG areas at night - particular on Monday night- are likely.

A ridge of high pressure is expected to build from Tuesday- Thursday next week, bringing sunshine, warmer temperatures and light winds. Unfortunately this does not bode well for air quality.

September 4, 2015 - Air Quality Summary Report - NE Washington Area Command Fires

Note the new contact information in today's report, the last from Leland Tarnay and Daniel Stratton. Mark Fitch and Karen Dillman will be taking over.  Thanks for all your help and support!

Download a PDF of this summary here

Here is a map of activity yesterday

Afternoon MODIS visible satellite actually picked up yesterday's smoke.

About 30-40 tons of PM10 (the particles that compise smoke) were released from this activity, from a total of 200-300 acres of firing. This is a small amount compared to the 1000's of tons of PM10 (tens of thousands of acres) per day that went up in smoke during the periods of large fire growth last week.  

Some impacts at Kettle Falls, Orient, and Republic were evident yesterday as a result:

This set of monitors (from http://smoke.airfire.org/monitoringReport) can be refreshed and/or viewed directly here, and more detailed graphs can be viewed by clicking the "generate reports" button.

This morning's model run captures this pattern fairly well, for the current "nowcast,"

Tomorrow's pattern is slightly different, with impacts to the SE of the fires in the evening, possibly putting some smoke in Davenport and even Spokane, though at these emissions levels, impacts would likely be in the moderate range.