Air Quality Forecast - Chelan Lake & Methow Valley Fires - Thursday, September 3, 2015

Air Quality Forecast - Chelan Lake & Methow Valley Fires - Thursday, September 3, 2015

Prepared by:   Andrea Holland (andreahollandsears@gmail.com) & Carolyn Kelly (ckelly8384@gmail.com)             

Thursday: More wind and cooling temperatures can be expected today through tomorrow. The trend of good air quality will continue. Friday: Breezy winds and a chance of light rain on some of the local fires can be expected. Air quality will remain good through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Site	Air Quality			Comments
	September 2 Yesterday	September 3 TODAY	September 4 Friday
Chelan	Good	Good	Good	Limited fire activity, if any, expected in the next few days.
Manson	Good	Good	Good
Winthrop	Good	Good	Good
Twisp	Good	Good	Good
Brewster	Good	Good	Good
Leavenworth	Good	Good	Good
Wenatchee	Good	Good	Good
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  The air quality outlook is based on data from automated instruments that have not been subjected to a quality assurance review. AQI’s estimated for sites with air monitors.

For information on what each Air Quality Index color code means, click on the “Smoke and Health” tab.

September 2, 2015: NE Washington fires, seasonal fire danger trends and smoke.

The cool and cloudy (even rainy) conditions we've seen so far this week will likely become drier, bringing potential for a little more smoke for the NE Washington Area, though not likely at the same scale as we saw last week.

How do we know this? Now is a good time to review what's driving the fire activity behind this smoke. One of the key metrics used to understand and track fire danger is called Energy Release Component or ERC. ERCs are basically a metric for how hot a fire can burn (the total available energy that could be released if the vegetation were burned by the flaming front of a fire).  The ERC can serve as a good characterization of fire season as it tracks seasonal fire danger trends well.  For Kettle Falls, roughly in the middle of the area where we have been tracking smoke, the recent rain has taken us from above 20 year historic highs, to below average ERC values:

Note however, that forecasted (green line) ERC values are heading back up again--though we are likely past the seasonal ERC peak, there are hundreds of thousands of acres within the perimeters of these fires. In many of these areas internal to the fire perimeter, there is still lots of heat being generated, especially where big logs in the heavy timber still smolder, over 1000's of acres.

The scale of these fire is going to be a big factor persistence of their smoke impacts:  If you straightened out the perimeter of the Northstar fire into a line stretching out to the southeast for example, that line would extend over 185 miles, nearly to Spokane!

VIIRS, the new high resolution satellite system that can detect heat from fires, shows (yellow dots) where heat was last detected in the past 6 days...These are the areas that could potentially produce more smoke if things warm up again, even if the perimeters of the fires don't expand further:

This pattern repeats across the other fires in the area too.  Here are the same graphics for the Kettle and Okanogan Complexes*.

Looking back - Air Quality Then and Now

Enjoying this clear air?  Here's a look at how air quality today compares to the smokier times last week. The season is not over yet and more fires may bring additional smoke.  Prepare by following the guidelines outlined by the Center of Disease Control (http://emergency.cdc.gov/disasters/wildfires/smoke.asp) and reducing your exposure to smoke as much as possible.

CHELAN

MANSON

BREWSTER

TWISP

WINTHROP

OMAK

LEAVENWORTH

WENATCHEE

Air Quality Summary Report - NE Washington Area Command Fires Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Download the PDF here

Air Quality Forecast - Chelan Lake & Methow Valley Fires - Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Air Quality Forecast - Chelan Lake & Methow Valley Fires - Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Prepared by:   Andrea Holland (andreahollandsears@gmail.com) & Carolyn Kelly (ckelly8384@gmail.com)             

Wednesday: More wind and the possibility of isolated showers bring continued good air quality through today and into tomorrow. Thursday: Breezy winds and small amounts of rain will continue the trend of good air quality.
Site	Air Quality			Comments
	September 1 Yesterday	September 2 TODAY	September 3 Thursday
Chelan	Good	Good	Good	Fire behavior, of local fires, is expected to be minimal.
Manson	Good	Good	Good
Winthrop	Good	Good	Good
Twisp	Good	Good	Good
Brewster	Good	Good	Good
Leavenworth	Good	Good	Good
Wenatchee	Good	Good	Good
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  The air quality outlook is based on data from automated instruments that have not been subjected to a quality assurance review. AQI’s estimated for sites with air monitors.

For information on what each Air Quality Index color code means, click on the “Smoke and Health” tab.

Air Quality Summary Report - NE Washington Area Command Fires Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Download the PDF here

Air Quality Forecast - Chelan Lake & Methow Valley Fires - Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Air Quality Forecast - Chelan Lake & Methow Valley Fires - Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Prepared by:   Andrea Holland (andreahollandsears@gmail.com) & Carolyn Kelly (ckelly8384@gmail.com)

Note that our forecast format has changed.  We now show air quality conditions for the previous day along with forecasts for today and tomorrow. Tuesday: More wind and the possibility of isolated showers bring continued good air quality through today and into tomorrow. Wednesday: Breezy winds and small amounts of rain will continue the trend of good air quality in the communities near the fires.
Site	Air Quality			Comments
	August 31 Yesterday	September 1 TODAY	September 2 Tuesday
Chelan	Good	Good	Good	Fire behavior is expected to be minimal throughout today.
Manson	Good	Good	Good
Winthrop	Good	Good	Good
Twisp	Good	Good	Good
Brewster	Good	Good	Good
Leavenworth	Good	Good	Good
Wenatchee	Good	Good	Good
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  The air quality outlook is based on data from automated instruments that have not been subjected to a quality assurance review. AQI’s estimated for sites with air monitors.

Webcam looking up Lake Chelan  http://www.fsvisimages.com/fstemplate.aspx?site=okwe3_fire1

For information on what each Air Quality Index color code means, click on the “Smoke and Health” tab.

Wildfire smoke forecast through 2 September

The weekend windstorm, dubbed by some as the worst summer windstorm in state history, has helped dramatically clean out the air statewide. Here's the progression of air quality conditions since Friday:

Friday 28 August

Saturday 29 August

Sunday 30 August

With several weather systems expected to pass through the state this week, air quality is expected to remain mostly Good during the daytime, with nights degrading to Moderate or USG in places like the Lewis-Clark valley. Parts of Yakima county might see a little smoke from the Cougar Creek fire, but Goldendale is likely to remain upwind of this fire.

Western Washington is expected to remain Good through the week.

Air Quality Forecast - Chelan Lake & Methow Valley Fires - Monday, August 31, 2015

Air Quality Forecast - Chelan Lake & Methow Valley Fires       Monday, August 31, 2015

Prepared by:   Andrea Holland (andreahollandsears@gmail.com) & Carolyn Kelly (ckelly8384@gmail.com)             

Note that our forecast format has changed.  We now show air quality conditions for the previous day along with forecasts for today and tomorrow. Monday: Areas east of the fires may see occasional wisps of smoke, which will not linger due to breezy conditions. Rain will improve air quality in affected areas. Tuesday: Areas east and northeast may see light smoke drift, which will not linger due to breezy conditions and rain.
Site	Air Quality			Comments
	August 30 Yesterday (Measured)	August 31 TODAY	September 1 Tuesday
Chelan	Good	Good	Good
Manson	Good	Good	Good
Winthrop	Good	Good	Good
Twisp	Good	Good	Good	Light concentrations of smoke may drift into this area in mid to late afternoon but not linger.
Brewster	Good	Good	Good
Leavenworth	Good	Good	Good
Wenatchee	Good	Good	Good
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  The air quality outlook is based on data from automated instruments that have not been subjected to a quality assurance review. AQI’s estimated for sites with air monitors.

Webcam looking up Lake Chelan  http://www.fsvisimages.com/fstemplate.aspx?site=okwe3_fire1

For information on what each Air Quality Index color code means, click on the “Smoke and Health” tab.