August 27, 2015 Monitoring data, post-wind event

August 27 Evening Update: As predicted, winds picked up this afternoon, and cleared the air at many of the sites we are tracking for NE Washington, in many cases (Inchelium, Omak, Republic, and Nespelem) going from Hazardous/Very Unhealthy levels to Moderate levels in just a few hours.

Link to latest at this set of sites here (click Generate plots to see detailed graphs)

This respite may be brief as the smoke from continuing activity on nearby fires fills back in under light winds tonight and tomorrow. There was notable activity (a large plume) on the Carpenter fire this evening, and that smoke is aloft above Wellpinit and nearby areas:

Here's the 06:16 AM VIIRS image from the next morning:

Comparison of the Last 6 Years of Smoke from Wildfires

The State Department of Ecology has put together the graph above showing that some communities are seeing greater effects from smoke than previous years. Many of the communities closest to the larger and longer burning wildfires are seeing more days this year that are in the very unhealthy and even hazardous ranges.

8/27/2015 Air Quality Forecast for SE Washington

An Air Resource Adviser assigned to the fires near Baker City, OR is including parts of Washington (Walla Walla and Clarkston) in his daily air quality/smoke forecasts.  See his report for today at this link: http://oregonsmoke.blogspot.com/2015/08/82715-air-quality-report-for-ne-oregon.html

Air Quality Summary Report - NE Washington Area Command Fires Wednesday, August 27, 2015

Downoad the PDF file here

Air Quality Forecast - Chelan Lake & Methow Valley Fires - Thursday, August 27, 2015

Air Quality Forecast - Chelan Lake & Methow Valley Fires       Thursday, August 27, 2015

Prepared by: Carolyn Kelly, Air Resource Advisor Trainee (ckelly8384@gmail.com) 

                                    Andrea Holland, Air Resource Advisor (andreahollandsears@gmail.com)           

Note: Air monitors in Brewster and Manson are up and running. Look for their data at wasmoke.blogspot.com Thursday: Yesterday, burnout operations on the Cougar Creek Fire, southwest of here, added additional smoke to areas near the Chelan Lake and Methow Valley Fires. Today, the smoke will gradually lift with the inversion with slight improvement in air quality.  However, strong winds in the morning will result in greater fire activity and generate more smoke which will settle in valley communities later in the afternoon and through the evening.  Friday:  Light winds will be insufficient to cleanse smoke from affected communities. Smoke is likely to affect these areas more towards the evening as it settles into the valleys. Any burnout on the Cougar Fire could bring additional smoke into our area. Saturday: A frontal passage is expected to bring strong winds and some rain.  This may provide communities downwind of the fires some relief from smoke conditions seen earlier in the week.
Site	August 27 Air quality – Thursday	August 28 Air Quality – Friday	August 29 Air Quality – Saturday	Comments
Chelan	Unhealthy	Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups	Moderate	Thursday will see a lift in the smoke by late morning but a return to unhealthy conditions in late afternoon as smoke settles into Lake Chelan area.
Manson	Very Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Moderate
Winthrop	Unhealthy	Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups	Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Twisp	Very Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Brewster	Very Unhealthy	Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups	Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Leavenworth	Moderate	Moderate	Good	Smoke from Cougar Fire will linger in this area and bring more smoke on Friday.
Wenatchee	Moderate	Moderate	Good	Smoke from Cougar Fire will linger in this area and bring more smoke on Friday.
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  The air quality outlook is based on data from automated instruments that have not been subjected to a quality assurance review. AQI’s estimated for sites with air monitors.

Webcam looking up Lake Chelan  http://www.fsvisimages.com/fstemplate.aspx?site=okwe3_fire1

For information on what each air Quality Index color code means,  click on the “Smoke and Health” tab.

August 26, 2015 -- Elevated smoke production this afternoon from fires to the SW

Flow was more southerly today though and allowed some impressive fire activity on the Cougar Creek fire send another plume toward areas to the north and west of Spokane.

Visible satellite loop from the afternoon. The Cougar Creek plume is just below the center of this view.

Below is a close-up of the Cougar Creek Fire, with VIIRS fire activity overlaid.

8/26/2015 A Closer Look at the Locations and Size of Fires in Northern Washington

Below is a look at the locations and perimeters for the fires that are causing such poor air quality in the Northern portion of Washington. Brighter red indicates areas of active burning.

8/26/2015 Air Quality Forecast for SE Washington

An Air Resource Adviser assigned to the fires near Baker City, OR is including parts of Washington (Walla Walla and Clarkston) in his daily air quality/smoke forecasts.  See his report for today at this link:  http://oregonsmoke.blogspot.com/2015/08/82615-air-quality-report-for-ne-oregon_26.html

8/26/2015 Estimating Air Quality in Areas without a Monitor

Wildfire smoke can cause serious air quality impacts in areas that are not well represented by an existing monitor. If you're in an area like this and want to get a rough estimate of the state of the air, the procedure and table below can help.

The procedure for using this visibility index is as follows:
1. Determine the limit of your visual range by looking for distant targets or familiar landmarks such as mountains, hills, or buildings at known distances (miles). The visual range is that point at which these targets are no longer visible.
2. Ideally, the viewing of any distance targets should be made with the sun behind you. Looking into the sun or at an angle increases the ability of sunlight to reflect off of the smoke, and thus making the visibility estimate less reliable.
3. Once distance has been determined, follow this simple guide:

• If over 15 miles, the air quality is generally good. 
• Between 5-15 miles, air quality is moderate and beginning to deteriorate, and is generally healthy, except possibly for smoke sensitive persons. The general public should avoid prolonged exposure if conditions are smoky to the point where visibility is closer to the 5 mile range. 
• If under 5 miles, the air quality is unhealthy for young children, adults over age 65, pregnant women, and people with heart and/or lung disease, asthma or other respiratory illness. These people should minimize outdoor activity.  
• If under 3 miles, the air quality is unhealthy for everyone. Young children, adults over age 65, pregnant women, and people with heart and/or lung disease, asthma or other respiratory illness should avoid all outdoor activities.  
• If under 1 mile, the air quality is hazardous. Everyone should avoid all outdoor activities. 

Wildfire smoke forecast for eastern Washington through Friday 28 August

Air quality forecasts around north central and north eastern Washington are well covered by preceding two posts by the Air Resource Advisors. We are grateful for their hard work in our State!

Monitors in and around the Columbia Basin did not clear out as well as expected over the last 36 hours. Currently the Lewis-Clark Valley, Walla Walla, Toppenish and Goldendale are showing USG air while other area monitors show mostly Moderate air.

A little clearing expected this afternoon but not much. Smoke is expected to settle in valleys overnight and will be hard to dislodge until decent winds kick up on Thursday afternoon. Expect the pattern to repeat on Thursday night into Friday morning.

While no large scale smoke intrusions from northern fires are expected in the Columbia Basin, smoke from the Cougar Creek and Grizzly Bear complex fires is likely to impact Yakima and Whitman county, as well the Lewis- Clark valley during this time. Expect air quality in these areas to be Unhealthy overnight and Moderate to USG at other times. Goldendale is likely to be USG on both nights but Good to Moderate at other times.

Into Friday, there is a decent chance that all these communities will see Good air quality as significant changes occur in the weather. That will be discussed in another forecast on Friday.