8/26/2015 A Closer Look at the Locations and Size of Fires in Northern Washington

Below is a look at the locations and perimeters for the fires that are causing such poor air quality in the Northern portion of Washington. Brighter red indicates areas of active burning.

8/26/2015 Air Quality Forecast for SE Washington

An Air Resource Adviser assigned to the fires near Baker City, OR is including parts of Washington (Walla Walla and Clarkston) in his daily air quality/smoke forecasts.  See his report for today at this link:  http://oregonsmoke.blogspot.com/2015/08/82615-air-quality-report-for-ne-oregon_26.html

8/26/2015 Estimating Air Quality in Areas without a Monitor

Wildfire smoke can cause serious air quality impacts in areas that are not well represented by an existing monitor. If you're in an area like this and want to get a rough estimate of the state of the air, the procedure and table below can help.

The procedure for using this visibility index is as follows:
1. Determine the limit of your visual range by looking for distant targets or familiar landmarks such as mountains, hills, or buildings at known distances (miles). The visual range is that point at which these targets are no longer visible.
2. Ideally, the viewing of any distance targets should be made with the sun behind you. Looking into the sun or at an angle increases the ability of sunlight to reflect off of the smoke, and thus making the visibility estimate less reliable.
3. Once distance has been determined, follow this simple guide:

• If over 15 miles, the air quality is generally good. 
• Between 5-15 miles, air quality is moderate and beginning to deteriorate, and is generally healthy, except possibly for smoke sensitive persons. The general public should avoid prolonged exposure if conditions are smoky to the point where visibility is closer to the 5 mile range. 
• If under 5 miles, the air quality is unhealthy for young children, adults over age 65, pregnant women, and people with heart and/or lung disease, asthma or other respiratory illness. These people should minimize outdoor activity.  
• If under 3 miles, the air quality is unhealthy for everyone. Young children, adults over age 65, pregnant women, and people with heart and/or lung disease, asthma or other respiratory illness should avoid all outdoor activities.  
• If under 1 mile, the air quality is hazardous. Everyone should avoid all outdoor activities. 

Wildfire smoke forecast for eastern Washington through Friday 28 August

Air quality forecasts around north central and north eastern Washington are well covered by preceding two posts by the Air Resource Advisors. We are grateful for their hard work in our State!

Monitors in and around the Columbia Basin did not clear out as well as expected over the last 36 hours. Currently the Lewis-Clark Valley, Walla Walla, Toppenish and Goldendale are showing USG air while other area monitors show mostly Moderate air.

A little clearing expected this afternoon but not much. Smoke is expected to settle in valleys overnight and will be hard to dislodge until decent winds kick up on Thursday afternoon. Expect the pattern to repeat on Thursday night into Friday morning.

While no large scale smoke intrusions from northern fires are expected in the Columbia Basin, smoke from the Cougar Creek and Grizzly Bear complex fires is likely to impact Yakima and Whitman county, as well the Lewis- Clark valley during this time. Expect air quality in these areas to be Unhealthy overnight and Moderate to USG at other times. Goldendale is likely to be USG on both nights but Good to Moderate at other times.

Into Friday, there is a decent chance that all these communities will see Good air quality as significant changes occur in the weather. That will be discussed in another forecast on Friday.

Air Quality Summary Report - Chelan and Methow Valley Fires Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Air Quality Summary Report   -  Chelan and Methow Valley Fires     Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Prepared by: Carolyn Kelly, Air Resource Advisor Trainee (ckelly8384@gmail.com) 

Andrea Holland, Air Resource Advisor (andreahollandsears@gmail.com)

Note: Air monitors in Brewster and Manson are currently in the process of setting up and should begin running by the weeks end. Wednesday: Communities near the fires (Chelan, Manson, Twisp, and Winthrop) will continue to experience periods of unhealthy air quality levels especially early morning and late afternoon as smoke settles into the valleys.  The amount of smoke in Leavenworth and Wenatchee is expected to vary throughout the day reaching moderate air quality levels, with some clearing late tonight.  Smoke may be heavier in Leavenworth. Thursday:  Chelan and Manson may see periods of increased smoke throughout the day but overall air quality will remain in the unhealthy range. Winthrop and Twisp may see varying levels of smoke with overall air quality at the unhealthy level. For Leavenworth and Wenatchee, some smoke may continue to linger but should clear out starting in the morning. Friday: Chelan and Manson will still see smoke with potential for a decrease as the day goes on. Winthrop and Twisp may see some clearer skies earlier in the day but smoke is expected to return into the afternoon. Some smoke may return in the morning for Leavenworth and Wenatchee. Weekend Outlook: A frontal passage is expected to pass through the area Friday night and through Saturday bringing breezy winds and some rain.  This will provide communities downwind of the fires some relief from smoke and good air quality.
Site	August 26 Air quality – Wednesday	August 27 Air Quality – Thursday	August 28 Air Quality – Friday	Comments
Chelan	Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Depending on smoke released from fires today, Chelan and Manson may see levels above unhealthy.
Manson	Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Very Unhealthy
		V. Unhealthy	Unhealthy
Winthrop	Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Unhealthy
Twisp	Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Unhealthy
Leavenworth	Moderate	Moderate	Good
		Good
Wenatchee	Moderate	Moderate	Good
		Good
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  The air quality outlook is based on data from automated instruments that have not been subjected to a quality assurance review. AQI’s estimated for sites with air monitors.

Webcam looking up Lake Chelan  http://www.fsvisimages.com/fstemplate.aspx?site=okwe3_fire1

For up to date information about smoke in Washington State, visit http://wasmoke.blogspot.com/

Air Quality Summary Report - NE Washington Area Command Fires Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Download the PDF here

Evening 8/25/2015: Expected Fire and Smoke patterns for the next couple days in the NE Washington area

Evening update: Due to breaking inversions and smoke aloft, conditions in Inchelium, Wellpinit, and Colville were most smoky mid-morning to mid-afternoon.  Nearer to fires in Omak, Nespelem, and Republic, the most smoky periods were overnight/early morning while the least smoky periods were mid- to late afternoon before sundown.

Monitoring results from NE Washington area smoke monitors. Histograms graphs to the right of the map show AQI colors for 1 hr average readings, and the tic marks are at 0z (5 P.M.) for last 10 days.  To see this set of sites, click here, and click "Generate Plots" for detailed graphs.

Smoke from fires to the far SW (i.e., the Grizzly Bear and Cougar Creek fires) also affected the region's smoke concentrations today. Winds for the next couple days through Thursday will be lighter though.

Animation of GOES Visible Satellite imagery for this afternoon.

Active fire behavior is expected over the next couple days, in combination with these lighter SW winds. This combination is likely to result in more localized smoke impacts, especially near the fires in Wellpinit, Omak, Nespelem, and likely Inchelium.  

VIIRS remotely sensed fire activity (redder is more recent), with active smoke monitoring sites.

Firing operations to control the Northstar fire may also increase emissions tonight under the inversions, further impacting Omak. Inversions will also continue to trap smoke near the surface farther away from fires in the Spokane area.  Here's how the pattern looks across the region with the Bluesky Model for tonight and tomorrow (inversions will trap smoke everywhere, but redder pixels will have more smoke).

8/25/2015 Air Quality Forecast for SE Washington

An Air Resource Adviser assigned to the fires near Baker City, OR is including parts of Washington (Walla Walla and Clarkston) in his daily air quality/smoke forecasts.  See his report for today at this link:  http://oregonsmoke.blogspot.com/2015/08/82515-air-quality-report-for-ne-oregon.html

Air Quality Summary Report - NE Washington Area Command Fires Tuesday, August 25, 2015

This is an image for display, the PDF can be downloaded here

Map of active fires (red polygons) and active smoke monitoring sites (green) and scheduled smoke monitoring sites for the NE Washington Command Area

Air Quality Summary Report - Chelan and Methow Valley Fires Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Air Quality Summary Report   -  Chelan and Methow Valley Fires     Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Prepared by: Carolyn Kelly, Air Resource Advisor Trainee (ckelly8384@gmail.com) 

Andrea Holland, Air Resource Advisor (andreahollandsears@gmail.com)

Note: The Manson monitoring site has re-established.  Yesterday an air monitor was also installed in Brewster.  Tuesday: Decent mixing has allowed smoke to disperse overnight and into the morning in some affected communities. Expect to see generally improved air quality in the afternoon with smoky conditions gradually returning overnight. This pattern will be more apparent in Chelan and Manson.  Brewster will see improved air quality throughout the day. Wednesday:  Chelan and Manson will again see varying levels of smoke throughout the day. Twisp and Winthrop will not likely get much relief from the smoke. Leavenworth and Wenatchee may see some smoke drift during the day which should clear out by evening. Thursday: With uncertain meteorological information at this time, this forecast may change considerably.
Site	August 25 Air quality -Tuesday	August 26 Air Quality – Wednesday	August 27 Air Quality - Thursday	Comments
Chelan	Unhealthy	Moderate (am)	Unhealthy	Expect wide varying levels of air quality throughout Tuesday. Fire activity will be high with smoke drifting down Chelan lake in late afternoon. Same pattern likely on Wednesday.
		Unhealthy (pm)
Manson	Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Unhealthy
Brewster	Moderate	Moderate	USG	Up river winds will be favorable for good to moderate air quality conditions.
Winthrop	Unhealthy	USG	Unhealthy
		Unhealthy
Twisp	Unhealthy	USG	Unhealthy
		Unhealthy
Leavenworth	Good	Good	Good
Wenatchee	Good	Good	Good
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  The air quality outlook is based on data from automated instruments that have not been subjected to a quality assurance review. AQI’s estimated for sites with air monitors.

  

Webcam looking up Lake Chelan  http://www.fsvisimages.com/fstemplate.aspx?site=okwe3_fire1

For more up to date information about smoke in Washington State, visit http://wasmoke.blogspot.com/