8/24/2015 Statewide look at Air Quality and Smoke for Monday and Tuesday

Smoke Impacts Predicted for Today (Monday 8/24/2015)

The map below is a prediction of the 24 hour average smoke impacts for Monday August 24, 2015. Areas in close proximity to fires are impacted the most including virtually all of north central to eastern Washington.  In the southern part of the state, the Cougar Creek fire near Mt. Adams is predicted to send smoke towards Yakima and the Tri Cities area. Winds are predicted to pick up later today and may improve air quality somewhat in the Columbia Basin and near the east slopes of the Cascades.

The map below is a modeled prediction of how bad smoke may get for one hour at some point during the day on Monday August 24, 2015.  Virtually all areas east of the Cascades will experience very smoky and impaired air quality for at least a short time today. It looks like your best option for less impaired air quality will be west of the Cascades which should not see much in the way of smoke impacts. Or on the east side, Leavenworth, Ellensburg, and Wenatchee may have less smoke than other parts of eastern Washington.

Smoke Impacts Predicted for Tomorrow (Tuesday 8/25/2015)

The map below is again a 24-hour average of predicted smoke impacts in Washington but this is for tomorrow (Tuesday). Unfortunately there is no sign of any improvement in the situation for eastern Washington yet and in fact air quality may be somewhat worse tomorrow in most areas compared to today as winds lessen.

The map below is the prediction of worst case 1 hour smoke levels for tomorrow, Tuesday.  Smoke levels look like they will be just as bad as or worse than today (Monday).  The west side of the Cascades will be spared but the only areas on the eastside that may experience lighter smoke levels look to be Leavenworth and Ellensburg. Dark red areas near the fires and in low lying areas where smoke can pool are predicted to reach very high levels of smoke at some point during the day tomorrow.

Important: Please note the predictions from the smoke model shown above are experimental and depend on the accuracy of various other models of meteorology, fire location, and fire size.

Smoke forecast through Wednesday 26 August

Most of Western Washington cleared out as expected overnight and is showing Good air quality. Overnight temperature inversions will make small valley communities a little slower to clear out today.

Eastern Washington: strong southwest winds will pick up later today. While this increases fire risks, it will also help clear out smoke in the Columbia Basin and surrounding communities. Expect air quality to reach Good to Moderate levels in these areas today. Smoke in the Lewis-Clark valley and parts of Klickitat County might be slower to clear out, so may not improve beyond USG today.

Weather models are having a hard time with forecasts through the rest of this week. As of now the best available info for Tuesday and Wednesday calls for lighter winds and warm temperatures. This could cause some pooling of smoke around the above-mentioned communities, and lead to USG or Unhealthy air on occasion. In general, poor air at night and some clearing during the afternoon.

Forecasts for northcentral and northeast Washington communities are covered in other blog posts.

BTW, here's an interactive map of all the current fires with clickable info, tweets, Flickr pictures and other multimedia links.

Air Quality Forecast - Chelan and Methow Valley Fires August 24, 2015

Air Quality Summary Report   -  Chelan and Methow Valley Fires     Monday, August 24, 2015

Prepared by: Carolyn Kelly, Air Resource Advisor Trainee (ckelly8384@gmail.com) 

Andrea Holland, Air Resource Advisor (andreahollandsears@gmail.com)

Note: The Manson monitoring site has been inoperative for the last week caused by a malfunction in the instrument.  Please refer to information provided from the Chelan monitor for estimating impacts to Manson.   Monday: Greater fire activity is expected again today. Chelan will see varying levels of smoke throughout the day with higher concentrations in the evening into tomorrow.  After heavier periods of smoke in the morning, Manson may see some increased visibility in the afternoon but heavy smoke may return in the evening.  Leavenworth and Wenatchee will start off at higher levels but may see some decrease as the day goes on. Smoke will be heaviest in Twisp and Winthrop in the morning with some decreases in the late evening into tomorrow, but remaining unhealthy. Tuesday:  Chelan, Manson, Winthrop, and Twisp are not likely to see much relief from smoke. Leavenworth and Wenatchee areas should see a decrease in smoke. Wednesday: Smoke may lift but still be prevalent for Chelan, Winthrop, and Twisp areas. Leavenworth and Wenatchee areas may see an increase in smoke throughout the day.
Site		August 24 Air quality -Mon	August 25 Air Quality – Tues	August 26 Air Quality - Wed	Comments
Chelan		Unhealthy	Unhealthy	USG	Manson will see heavier concentrations compared to Chelan. Expect to see varying levels of smoke throughout the day.
Winthrop		Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Unhealthy
Twisp		Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Unhealthy
Leavenworth		Unhealthy	Moderate	Moderate	Conditions may change based on fire activity.
		USG
Wenatchee		Unhealthy	Moderate	Moderate	Conditions may change based on fire activity.
		USG
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  The air quality outlook is based on data from automated instruments that have not been subjected to a quality assurance review. AQI’s estimated for sites with air monitors.
Index Levels of Health Concern	Actions Recommended by WA Department of Ecology to Reduce Smoke Exposure
Good	None
Moderate	People with asthma, respiratory infection, diabetes, lung or heart disease, or have had a stroke should limit outdoor activities or do activities that take less effort, such as walking instead of running.
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups	Sensitive groups include people with heart or lung disease, asthma, diabetes, infants, children, adults older than 65, pregnant women, or who have had a stroke.  These people should limit time spent outdoors.
Unhealthy	Everyone should limit time spent outdoors, avoid exercising outside (including sports teams) and choose non-strenuous indoor activities. Those with asthma, respiratory infection, diabetes, lung or heart disease, or have had a stroke should stay indoors as should iInfants, children, pregnant women and adults over age 65.
Very Unhealthy	Everyone should stay indoors, do only light activities, and keep windows closed if it is not too hot. Run air conditioners on re-circulate and close the outside air intake. Use indoor air cleaners with HEPA filters, if available. If you must be outdoors, wear an N-95 respirator mask. People with chronic diseases should check with their health care provider before wearing a mask. Check with your local health department for health information. People with asthma, lung and heart disease, or have had a stroke should check with their health care provider for advice about leaving the area. Anyone with shortness of breath, wheezing, chest pain, heart palpitations, extreme fatigue, or difficulty moving or speaking should call their health care provider or call 911.
Hazardous	Everyone should stay indoors, do only light activities, and keep windows closed if it is not too hot. Run air conditioners on re-circulate and close the outside air intake. Use indoor air cleaners with HEPA filters, if available. If you must be outdoors, wear an N-95 respirator mask. People with chronic diseases should check with their health care provider before wearing a mask. Check with your local health department for health information. People with asthma, lung and heart disease, or have had a stroke should check with their health care provider for advice about leaving the area. Anyone with shortness of breath, wheezing, chest pain, heart palpitations, extreme fatigue, or difficulty moving or speaking should call their health care provider or call 911.

Webcam looking up Lake Chelan  http://www.fsvisimages.com/fstemplate.aspx?site=okwe3_fire1

For more information about smoke in Washington State, visit http://wasmoke.blogspot.com/

Monday, August 24, 2015 - Air Quality Forecast for NE Washington Area Command

Air Quality Summary Report   -  NE Area Command     Monday, August 24, 2015

Prepared by: Leland Tarnay, Air Resource Advisor (ltarnay@nps.gov)

The above is an image of the report, link to the PDF is here: 

Here's a map of all the sites mentioned above. Sites with the Green place marks have smoke monitors in place; sites with yellow monitors are being tracked, with conditions estimated based on best available information.

Saturday's satellite image and air quality

This is what Washington PM2.5 monitors recorded yesterday. Dots are monitor readings, shown on the same color scales as mentioned in the post below.

Western WA folks, hang in there! West to northwest winds are picking up and have already thinned out the smoke column aloft, allowing for more sunshine than yesterday. Most areas should see smoke clearing by Monday morning if not earlier, although strong overnight temperature inversions in valley communities will mean they will require more time to flush out.

Eastern Washington will continue to see smoke but likely in lower amounts. Idaho fires wont be affecting us beyond Monday afternoon.

Air Quality Forecast - Chelan and Methow Valley Fires August 23, 2015

Air Quality Summary Report   -  Chelan and Methow Valley Fires     Sunday, August 23, 2015

Prepared by: Carolyn Kelly, Air Resource Advisor Trainee (ckelly8384@gmail.com) 

Andrea Holland, Air Resource Advisor (andreahollandsears@gmail.com)

Note: The Manson monitoring site has been inoperative for the last week caused by a malfunction in the instrument.  Please refer to information provided from the Chelan monitor for estimating impacts to Manson.   Sunday: Greater fire activity is expected today.  While late morning will see some lifting of smoke in impacted areas, more smoke is expected to settle into nearby communities. Those closest to the fires such as Chelan, Manson, Twisp, Winthrop and Omak will see air quality reach into very unhealthy levels by the evening and throughout the night.  Omak may see periods of hazardous air quality. Monday:  Chelan and Manson are not likely to see much relief from smoke today. Winthrop and Twisp may see some relief in the morning with a return to unhealthy air levels by the afternoon as fire activity picks up.  Omak will continue to see unhealthy levels of smoke with periods ranging between very unhealthy to hazardous. Tuesday: Leavenworth and Wenatchee should see some relief from the smoke. Smoke will remain persistent for Chelan, Winthrop, Twisp and Omak areas
Site		August 23 Air quality -Sunday	August 24 Air Quality – Mon	August 25 Air Quality - Tues	Comments
Chelan		Unhealthy	Very Unhealthy	Unhealthy	By early evening Sunday Chelan and Manson will see smoke concentrations approaching very unhealthy levels.
		Very Unhealthy
Winthrop		Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Unhealthy
Twisp		Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Unhealthy	By early evening smoke concentrations will approach very unhealthy levels.
		Very Unhealthy
Omak		Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Smoke concentrations become worse from late afternoon through the night.
Leavenworth		Moderate	Moderate	Good	Smoke will settle into the area later in the afternoon bringing air quality into unhealthy levels.
		Unhealthy
Wenatchee		Moderate	Moderate	Good	Smoke will settle into the area later in the evening reaching  air quality levels unhealthy for sensitive individuals.
		USG
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  The air quality outlook is based on data from automated instruments that have not been subjected to a quality assurance review. AQI’s estimated for sites with air monitors.
Index Levels of Health Concern	Actions Recommended by WA Department of Ecology to Reduce Smoke Exposure
Good	None
Moderate	People with asthma, respiratory infection, diabetes, lung or heart disease, or have had a stroke should limit outdoor activities or do activities that take less effort, such as walking instead of running.
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups	Sensitive groups include people with heart or lung disease, asthma, diabetes, infants, children, adults older than 65, pregnant women, or who have had a stroke.  These people should limit time spent outdoors.
Unhealthy	Everyone should limit time spent outdoors, avoid exercising outside (including sports teams) and choose non-strenuous indoor activities. Those with asthma, respiratory infection, diabetes, lung or heart disease, or have had a stroke should stay indoors as should iInfants, children, pregnant women and adults over age 65.
Very Unhealthy	Everyone should stay indoors, do only light activities, and keep windows closed if it is not too hot. Run air conditioners on re-circulate and close the outside air intake. Use indoor air cleaners with HEPA filters, if available. If you must be outdoors, wear an N-95 respirator mask. People with chronic diseases should check with their health care provider before wearing a mask. Check with your local health department for health information. People with asthma, lung and heart disease, or have had a stroke should check with their health care provider for advice about leaving the area. Anyone with shortness of breath, wheezing, chest pain, heart palpitations, extreme fatigue, or difficulty moving or speaking should call their health care provider or call 911.
Hazardous	Everyone should stay indoors, do only light activities, and keep windows closed if it is not too hot. Run air conditioners on re-circulate and close the outside air intake. Use indoor air cleaners with HEPA filters, if available. If you must be outdoors, wear an N-95 respirator mask. People with chronic diseases should check with their health care provider before wearing a mask. Check with your local health department for health information. People with asthma, lung and heart disease, or have had a stroke should check with their health care provider for advice about leaving the area. Anyone with shortness of breath, wheezing, chest pain, heart palpitations, extreme fatigue, or difficulty moving or speaking should call their health care provider or call 911.

Webcam looking up Lake Chelan  http://www.fsvisimages.com/fstemplate.aspx?site=okwe3_fire1

For more information about smoke in Washington State, visit http://wasmoke.blogspot.com/

Where was the smoke headed early this afternoon?

Early this afternoon winds shifted and are now from the northeast helping move smoke away from the Columbia River Basin but into other communities downwind and southwest of the fires.  This weather pattern is expected to change to southeast winds by tonight and through Sunday.

Air Quality Forecast - Chelan & Methow Valley Fires August 22, 2015

Air Quality Summary Report   -  Chelan and Methow Valley Fires     Saturday, August 22, 2015

Prepared by: Carolyn Kelly, Air Resource Advisor trainee (ckelly8384@gmail.com) 

Andrea Holland, Air Resource Advisor (andreahollandsears@gmail.com)

Note: The Manson monitoring site has been inoperative for the last week caused by a malfunction in the instrument.  Please refer to information provided from the Chelan monitor for estimating impacts to Manson.   Saturday:  Inversions will keep smoke concentrations high in the valleys before lifting late morning.  A stable upper air mass will prevent widespread clearing of the smoke and communities nearest and downwind of the fires will experience persistent smoke throughout the day.  Chelan will see particularly heavy smoke in the morning and towards late afternoon and into the evening.  Manson could see greater smoke impacts than Chelan.  Twisp and Winthrop will see smoke impacts from both the Chelan Complex and Okanogan Complex fires.  As winds shift to the East, Leavenworth and Wenatchee may see some decrease in air quality. Sunday:  Chelan and Manson can both expect to see varying levels of smoke throughout the day with potentially hazardous levels in the evening. Winthrop may have some times of clearing very early in the morning but can expect to see smoke continuing to roll in throughout the day.  Smoke will remain in Twisp throughout the day, becoming worse through late afternoon with air quality reaching hazardous levels for a few hours late evening. Monday: Leavenworth and Wenatchee should see some relief from the smoke clearing out late on Sunday and into Monday. Smoke will remain persistent for Chelan, Winthrop, and Twisp areas but may clear out later in the day and into the evening.
Site	August 22 Air quality -Today		August 23 Air Quality - Sun	August 24 Air Quality - Mon	Comments
Chelan	Unhealthy		Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Today Manson area may see heavier smoke concentrations in the evening.
Winthrop	Unhealthy		Unhealthy	Unhealthy
Twisp	Unhealthy		Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Today, periods of very heavy smoke towards the evening.
Leavenworth	Moderate		Moderate	Good
Wenatchee	Moderate		Moderate	Good
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  The air quality outlook is based on data from automated instruments that have not been subjected to a quality assurance review. AQI’s estimated for sites with air monitors.
Index Levels of Health Concern		Actions Recommended by WA Department of Ecology to Reduce Smoke Exposure
Good		None
Moderate		People with asthma, respiratory infection, diabetes, lung or heart disease, or have had a stroke should limit outdoor activities or do activities that take less effort, such as walking instead of running.
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups		Sensitive groups include people with heart or lung disease, asthma, diabetes, infants, children, adults older than 65, pregnant women, or who have had a stroke.  These people should limit time spent outdoors.
Unhealthy		Everyone should limit time spent outdoors. Everyone should avoid exercising outdoors (including sports teams) and choose non-strenuous indoor activities. People with asthma, respiratory infection, diabetes, lung or heart disease, or have had a stroke should stay indoors. Infants, children, pregnant women and adults over age 65 should also stay indoors.
Very Unhealthy		Everyone should stay indoors, do only light activities, and keep windows closed if it is not too hot. Run air conditioners on re-circulate and close the outside air intake. Use indoor air cleaners with HEPA filters, if available. If you must be outdoors, wear an N-95 respirator mask. People with chronic diseases should check with their health care provider before wearing a mask. Check with your local health department for health information. People with asthma, lung and heart disease, or have had a stroke should check with their health care provider for advice about leaving the area. Anyone with shortness of breath, wheezing, chest pain, heart palpitations, extreme fatigue, or difficulty moving or speaking should call their health care provider or call 911.
Hazardous		Everyone should stay indoors, do only light activities, and keep windows closed if it is not too hot. Run air conditioners on re-circulate and close the outside air intake. Use indoor air cleaners with HEPA filters, if available. If you must be outdoors, wear an N-95 respirator mask. People with chronic diseases should check with their health care provider before wearing a mask. Check with your local health department for health information. People with asthma, lung and heart disease, or have had a stroke should check with their health care provider for advice about leaving the area. Anyone with shortness of breath, wheezing, chest pain, heart palpitations, extreme fatigue, or difficulty moving or speaking should call their health care provider or call 911.

Webcam looking up Lake Chelan  http://www.fsvisimages.com/fstemplate.aspx?site=okwe3_fire1

For more information about smoke in Washington State, visit http://wasmoke.blogspot.com/