Smoke Model Runs for 8-8-14

Smoke Modeling

People in Washington know that the concentration of smoke at any one place can change continuously during the day.  We can measure these changing levels hour by hour with monitors.  We can also estimate them hour by hour with computer models.  EPA sets health standards for smoke that are based on 24-hour averages.  Therefore it is useful to not only know the peak hourly impact at any point (the smokiest hour) but also the 24-hour average.

The following figures show these two different outputs for tomorrow.  The first shows the highest hourly value modeled for each point on the map over that day.  This would be the worst smoke you would see if you stood at the same point all day.  The second map shows the 24-hour average of all the hours you would see at the same point all day.  The darker the red color the heavier the smoke.  Naturally the daily average maps are not as dark because the hourly values for the entire day are averaged at each point on the map – smoothing out any spikes.

Figures Showing Daily Maximum Hourly and Daily Average Smoke Predictions for Aug 8, 2014

NOTE: This model was developed by Forest Service Research and the output is experimental, and as with all models may not be accurate.  Remember: all models are wrong – some models are useful! 

8/7/2014 Air Quality Warning Categories

Just a reminder that this is the table of precautions that matches up with the color coded dots on the air quality maps.  It's always available at the permanent links on the SMOKE AND HEALTH tab (and available there in Spanish too).

8-7-14 Air Quality Report

Smoke Synopsis:
Expect similar conditions today as yesterday – westerly flow and sunny.  Yesterday’s smoke on active fires lifted out of valleys and was transported west with the transport winds.  An upper level trough will approach this area today and then pass through the region on Friday causing a small change in transport wind direction in some areas and some additional cloudiness which could delay when the smoke lifts out of the valleys.  Fires are now widespread across entire region with the potential to contribute to a regional smoke haze that will be evident in many cities in the Columbia River Valley.
Air Quality Outlook:
Site	Thursday August 7, 2014	Friday August 8, 2014	Saturday August 9, 2014	Comments
Colville	USG	USG	USG	Being affected by Devil’s Elbow fire smoke.
Wellpinit	Moderate	USG	USG	Winds could push Devil’s Elbow fire smoke to town on Friday.
Omak	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Being affected by Falls Creek fire smoke.
Malott	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
Brewster	Good	Good	Moderate
Winthrop	Good	Moderate	USG
Twisp	USG	USG	USG
Chelan	Moderate	USG	USG	Being affected by Duncan fire smoke.
Entiat	Moderate	USG	USG	Being affected by Duncan fire smoke
Plain	Good	Moderate	Moderate	Could see smoke from Shoofly fire
Leavenworth	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
Wenatchee	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
Ellensburg	Good	Good	Moderate	Winds should push smoke away from town
Yakima	Good	Good	Good
For detailed information about the color coded air quality categories, please see:  Washington Air Quality Advisory for Smoke and Other Fine Particle Air Pollution En Español:  El Índice de la Calidad de Aire de Washington para Humo y Otra Contaminación del Aire causadas por Partículas Finas
Warning: These data have been obtained from automated instruments and have not been subjected to a quality assurance review to determine their accuracy. They are presented for public awareness and should not be considered final. Conditions such as power outages and equipment malfunctions can produce invalid data.
1 Since wildfires often occur in remote areas, air monitoring equipment may not be available. The following table provides a quick method to assess air quality in your area. For more detailed information you can go to the following site: http://www.deq.state.or.us/aq/burning/wildfires/visibility.htm

8-6-14 Photo of Snag Canyon Plume from Wenatchee

8/6/2014 Satellite view of smoke from today

Two days in a row we've gotten a good, clear view of the plumes and smoke from the most active fires in Washington.  Air quality at most of the monitoring sites has been a little better today than yesterday but the fires are still out there and still very active.

8/6/2014 Satellite view of smoke from yesterday

8-6-14 Air Quality Report

Smoke Synopsis:
Westerly flow will continue today over the Pacific NW.  Expect a gradual cooling trend but also windier conditions with abundant sunshine.  Higher winds and sunshine should help lift, dilute and transport the smoke away during the day but could also increase fire activity.  The gusty westerly winds could enhance downslope smoke flows from fires.  Fires are now widespread across entire region with the potential to contribute to a regional smoke haze that could impact many cities.  Expect similar conditions tomorrow.
Air Quality Outlook:
Site	Wednesday August 6, 2014	Thursday August 7, 2014	Friday August 8, 2014	Comments
Omak	USG	USG	USG	Being affected by Falls Creek fire smoke.
Malott	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
Brewster	Good	Good	Good
Winthrop	USG	USG	USG
Twisp	USG	USG	USG
Chelan	USG	USG	USG	Being affected by Duncan fire smoke.
Entiat	Moderate	USG	USG
Plain	Good	Moderate	Moderate	Could see smoke from Shoofly fire.
Leavenworth	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
Wenatchee	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
Ellensburg	Good	Moderate	Moderate	Winds should push smoke away from town
Yakima	Good	Good	Good
For detailed information about the color coded air quality categories, please see:  Washington Air Quality Advisory for Smoke and Other Fine Particle Air Pollution En Español:  El Índice de la Calidad de Aire de Washington para Humo y Otra Contaminación del Aire causadas por Partículas Finas
Warning: These data have been obtained from automated instruments and have not been subjected to a quality assurance review to determine their accuracy. They are presented for public awareness and should not be considered final. Conditions such as power outages and equipment malfunctions can produce invalid data.
1 Since wildfires often occur in remote areas, air monitoring equipment may not be available. The following table provides a quick method to assess air quality in your area. For more detailed information you can go to the following site: http://www.deq.state.or.us/aq/burning/wildfires/visibility.htm