Air Quality Forecast, Issued 12 Noon Sunday 20 July 2014

The Carlton Complex wildfire has grown to over 200,000 acres and is wreaking havoc with communications and travel in and around the Methow Valley, especially in Pateros and Brewster where hundreds of buildings have been destroyed.  The air quality at locations close to the fires is surprisingly good--the worst air quality is confined to the northeast portions of Washington where this morning it is Unhealthy in Spokane and Colville.

Breezy conditions will continue during the day and into Sunday night pushing the smoke southeast towards Moses Lake before curving northeasterly towards Spokane and the northern Idaho Panhandle.  Smoke concentrations in the central basin could reach the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) Sunday night.  Winds decrease Monday morning and smoke concentration is expected to increase in the central basin and is likely to be borderline between USG and Unhealthy by mid-day Monday as the wind direction begins a shift from northwesterly to southerly.

By Monday afternoon the winds in the vicinity of the Washington fires will southerly and carry smoke northward along the east slopes of the Cascades in response to the approaching system moving down the British Columbia coast.  However, that system's influence will extend south into Oregon raising the possibility that smoke from the wildfires in Oregon will begin to reach Washington.  There is a slight possibility that smoke will reach southeastern Washington Monday afternoon and evening but is not likely to exceed the Moderate air quality level.

Winds are expected to decrease late Monday into Tuesday morning increasing the likelihood of higher smoke concentrations in areas north of the fires.  The level will be dependent on the fire activity--higher fire activity results in greater plume heights and lower concentrations at the surface, lower fire intensity is associated with lower plume heights and increased smouldering to produce higher concentrations at ground level.

Looking ahead into mid-week:  The southerly winds will continue and will likely bring smoke from the Oregon fires into Eastern Washington possibly as far west as Yakima but more likely only as far west as the Tri-Cities and could blanket most of the Columbia Basin with Moderate to occasionally USG air quality.  There is also the possibility that the system moving through on Wednesday will drop one-tenth to one-quarter inch of precipitation in the higher elevations.  Unfortunately, precipitation at this time of year often comes in the form of thundershowers and carries the possibility of additional fire starts from lightning.  That slight amount of precipitation will not be sufficient to extinguish the fires and will only decrease their intensity and raise the possibility of higher concentrations at the surface.

Barring any new fires air quality in areas of Washington not mentioned is expected to remain good.

Clint Bowman

Atmospheric Scientist

Washington State Department of Ecology

P.O Box 47600, Olympia, WA 98504-7600

Tel: 360-407-6807

Fax: 360-407-7534

Email: clint@ecy.wa.gov

Air Quality Forecast, Friday 18 July 2014

The Carlton Complex wildfire rapidly grew to over 160,000 acres. It prompted evacuations and serious fire damage in the Methow Valley, Pateros and Brewster. The Mills Canyon Complex wildfire also grew and together caused worse air quality than initially predicted. Breezy conditions today have helped dissipate a little smoke but they also reduce plume rise and transport smoke longer distances. As of 3PM on Friday, Leavenworth recorded Unhealthy air while Wenatchee, Omak, Colville and several Spokane area sites were all showing “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups”. The Twisp and Winthrop monitors are offline because much of the Methow Valley has lost power.

 

Breezy conditions are set to continue through Sunday as the winds turn more westerly. Some rain is possible in the Cascades on Sunday but may not reach the fires. Smoke is expected to continue blowing across eastern Washington, with cities close to the fires likely seeing Unhealthy or even Very Unhealthy air. Other areas across the Columbia Basin, mostly east of a line from Ellensburg to Richland are likely to see periodic smoke between now and Monday, leading to air quality that is “Moderate” or “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups”.

 

Light southwesterly winds on Monday- Tuesday could bring some smoke from wildfires in Oregon to southeastern Washington. The northern Columbia Basin might experience a little relief from smoke. There is a good possibility of rain on Tuesday- Wednesday, but it also comes with the risk of lightning and gusty winds, which can aggravate wildfires.

 

Unless there are new wildfires, air quality in south central and western Washington should continue to remain Good during this time.

 

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Ranil Dhammapala, PhD.

Atmospheric Scientist

Washington State Department of Ecology

P.O Box 47600, Olympia, WA 98504-7600

Tel: 360-407-6807

Fax: 360-407-7534

Email: ranil.dhammapala@ecy.wa.gov

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7/18/2014 A New Reminder today From Washington Department of Health

News Release

For immediate release:                 July 17, 2014                     (14-101)

Contacts:         Kelly Stowe, Communications Office           360-236-4022
                           Marqise Allen, Communications Office        360-236-4072

Warm sunny weather, wildfires mean air pollution worsens, health risks increase

OLYMPIA -- The warm summer weather calls Washingtonians outdoors for hiking, biking, or simply relaxing. It’s also the time when smoke from wildfires or worsening  ground-level ozone known as “smog” can make outdoor air a health risk to some people.

Several large fires in Eastern Washington may cause poor air quality in surrounding areas. When the air we breathe contains fine ash, soot, gases, and other irritants, it gets into the lungs and can cause problems, especially for people with breathing or heart conditions.

“People who have conditions like asthma, bronchitis, and heart disease can develop serious health problems when they breathe polluted air,” explains State Health Officer Dr. Kathy Lofy. “It’s important that they pay attention to air quality reports and protect themselves from smoky or smoggy air.”

Older adults are at risk and are often unaware they have underlying health conditions that can be aggravated by poor air quality. Kids are also at risk because their lungs and airways are still developing and they breathe more air per pound of body weight than adults — putting them at higher risk. And kids often spend more time outside.

Air pollution in the summer time comes from several sources. Wildfires produce smoky air containing fine particles and toxic chemicals. Exhaust from cars and trucks combines with sunny, hot weather to cause ozone build-up. When pollution is high, outdoor activity should be limited to less strenuous exercise — going for a walk instead of a run may be a good idea.

Everyone can lower their exposure to air pollution by checking air quality conditions before heading outdoors. Department of Ecology's clickable state map offers current air quality information online. People with lung and heart disease should be especially careful to check air quality and limit outdoor activities when air pollution is increased.

More tips for reducing exposure to air pollution and health information can be found on the Outdoor Air Quality, Wildfire Smoke and the Washington Tracking Network websites.

The Department of Health website (www.doh.wa.gov) is your source for a healthy dose of information. Also, find us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

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Print Version (PDF)

Air quality forecast, Thursday 17 July 2014

Washington Department of Ecology Air Quality Forecast, July 17 2014

 

In addition to several small fires, large wildfires burning close to Leavenworth, the Methow Valley and Ephrata are causing poor air quality. These fires run the risk of spreading today and tomorrow as strong winds pass through. A Red Flag Warning has been issued by the National Weather Service. Stronger winds also restrict plume rise, so more smoke will stay closer to the ground.

 

Temperatures will drop closer to normal by Friday and there is a small chance of some rain in the mountains on Saturday. Not enough to douse the fires though.

 

Winds will blow from west to east through the weekend causing wildfire smoke to drift across much of eastern Washington over the next few days. Areas close to the fires may continue to see air quality degrade to Unhealthy levels, while air in areas further away could vary between Good, Moderate and Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups at different times between now and Monday.

 

Barring new fires, air quality in south central Washington and areas further west of the wildfires should continue to remain Good during this time. We do not expect major smoke intrusions from fires in Idaho, Oregon or British Columbia.

 

 

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Ranil Dhammapala, PhD.

Atmospheric Scientist

Washington State Department of Ecology

P.O Box 47600, Olympia, WA 98504-7600

Tel: 360-407-6807

Fax: 360-407-7534

Email: ranil.dhammapala@ecy.wa.gov

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Air Quality 7 17 2014

Air Quality Advisory Thursday 2 pm

 

Chelan “Good”

Leavenworth “Unhealthy for Sensitive Populations”

Wenatchee “Unhealthy”

 

Smoke expected through the weekend… 

When air quality is in the ”Unhealthy for Sensitive Populations” range the people most impacted are those with underlying conditions like asthma, lung diseases or heart disease, the very young or very old. Limit time outdoors and limit physical exertion to very short periods until air quality improves.  For this group if you are outdoors N95 masks may help.

 

When air quality is in the “Unhealthy” range everyone is at risk of being affected by the smoke. Outdoor physical activities should be cancelled. At this point you should limit exposure to outside air and do not do anything that would increase your breathing rate, people should avoid any exertion.  Use of N95 masks, if you must go outside, can be helpful to reduce your exposure to the pollutants in the smoke.

 

·       In your vehicle use the recycle mode on your interior air system.

·       If possible, go to an area unaffected by the wildfire smoke until the smoke clears, especially if you are having symptoms like headaches, dizziness or nausea or having increased respiratory symptoms like shortness of breath.

·       Keep windows closed.

·       Limit time outdoors.

·       If you are having significant problems talk to your health care provider.

 

 

Smoke

Residents of Kittitas County may notice smoke in the area to the north. The smoke is a result of a large fire in Leavenworth area. To date, there are no impacts from the fire on Kittitas County.



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7/17/2014 Smoke Photo from today looking over the town of Carlton, WA

Looks like air quality is pretty bad in the area around Carlton and the Methow Valley.  Photo from this site:  http://www.fsvisimages.com/fstemplate.aspx?site=pasa1
The monitors in the valley (Winthrop and Twisp) don't reflect high values so perhaps the plume is elevated and not impacting the communities too severely.  Looks pretty bad though!

This is what the view should see (except for the snow):

7/16/2014 Nice, clear satellite image of fires and smoke today

Satellite images are not always this clear and can often be obscured by clouds but the image from today clearly shows smoke from the 3 major fires of concern in the state at this time.  For orientation, Lake Chelan in the big lake running from the NW to SE.

The entire image (big file) can be viewed here:  http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php?satellite=t1&product=true_color&date=2014_07_16_197&overlay_sector=false&overlay_state=true&overlay_coastline=true&sector=USA1&resolution=250m

Or a smaller version:  http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php?satellite=t1&product=true_color&date=2014_07_16_197&overlay_sector=false&overlay_state=true&overlay_coastline=true&sector=USA1&resolution=1000m

Or if that's still too big:  http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php?satellite=t1&product=true_color&date=2014_07_16_197&overlay_sector=false&overlay_state=true&overlay_coastline=true&sector=USA1&resolution=2000m

7/16/2014 New Information Resource from the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center

There's a new resource available for learning about what's going on with wildfires in the Pacific Northwest.  The Northwest Interagency Coordination Center has started a blog which can be viewed  at:   http://nwccinfo.blogspot.com/  We'll put a permanent link on the home page of this Smoke blog along the right column and also on the tab labeled "Where's the Fire".

Kittitas County Press Release: Second fire in Kittitas County causes I-90 closure

 

 

Kittitas County Sheriff Public Service Announcement Second fire in Kittitas County causes I-90 closure Kittitas County, WA -07/15/2014 - I-90 is currently closed, East-Bound and West-Bound, between Exit 115 near Kittitas and the Columbia River. Local Fire-Fighters have pulled some of their resources out of Badger Pocket to battle a fire in the median between Kittitas and Vantage. It is unknown at this time how long the freeway will be closed.  Kittitas County, from the Cascades to the Columbia, and online at http://www.co.kittitas.wa.us ### For more information: Clayton Myers, Undersheriff clay.myers@co.kittitas.wa.us 509-925-8534

 

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