Southeast Washington saw some relief last night because the northeasterly winds carried the smoke towards the rest of the state, with air quality still in the Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range there. Smoke forecast models predict that the area of relief in Southeast Washington will continue to see some modest clearing. We could see air quality get a bit better today from Yakima to Spokane, but it will be short-lived as smoke is predicted to push back into the region tomorrow. In general, areas in Northeastern Washington should expect to see more smoke throughout the week, despite any clearing that will occur today.
Residents in Chelan, Douglas, and Okanogan counties are so close to multiple fires. So, even with expected clearing for much of the state later this week, those counties should expect continued smoky conditions.
PM2.5 (Smoke) - Tuesday at 9 a.m.
MODIS - Terra Satellite Image for Tuesday (~11am)
"Keep in mind, though, that there is a large area of smoke off the coast that will likely blow back over us on Wednesday." Is that supposed to say Thursday or just more smoke on Wednesday?
ReplyDeleteIt's uncertain how much of an impact the smoke off the coast will have. Assuming it does blow back over us, I would estimate that it will impact Western Washington on Wednesday. It will likely still be smoky on Thursday morning in the Puget Sound and Cascades areas. Thursday morning should be clear for the coastal region, though, especially southwest Washington.
DeleteOffshore winds are supposed to blow onshore to clear things out up (Blaine-Bellingham Wa) BUT... it looks to me like we have more smoke offshore than is on shore so won't that make things worse not better? Blaine and Bham seeing the highest readings for smoke since this event started. 310 and 302.
DeleteA temporary worsening as the smoke accumulated between there & the coast blows back. But clean marine air follows behind so you should be in good shape by this evening
DeleteDoes the expected latter part of week clearing include eastern Whatcom county in your estimation? More specifically North Cascades National Park? Thanks kindly.
ReplyDeleteIt is tough to say how much clearing there will be there in the North Cascades / Whatcom county area. I expect that it will probably continue to see more smoke longer than other areas in Western Washington. It might even take until Sunday for that area to clear out. Thursday will be a transitional day and we will have a better forecast then.
DeleteThank you! Grear appreciate your work and insight. Will stay tuned.
DeleteAsh isn't really a health problem? Please do more research.
ReplyDeleteIf there is a resource you would like to share, please do. But no, ash is not the main cause of respiratory health problems because they are coarse and do not get deep into the lungs. The finer the particulate, the deeper it gets into your lungs.
DeleteI think the problem may be what exactly is being denoted by "ash." If it's only meant as those large visible deposits on cars, yeah, too big. But in some literature, ash is characterized as containing a portion in the "respirable" range. See, for example, Mount St Helens Eruptions, May 18 to June 12, 1980: An Overview of the Acute Health Impact
DeleteBaxter, P. et al. Here's a quote from p. 2586: "The particle size distribution of the fallen ash was complex and related to distance from the volcano. More than 90% of the particles were within the respirable range (<10um) in samples taken at different sites across Washington State...These high TSP [total suspended particulates] levels were considered likely to provoke acute respiratory illness in exposed, susceptible people."
Good point. Also, keep in mind that the amount of ash in the atmosphere after an volcanic eruption is orders of magnitude higher than what is being seen in Seattle today. At least from what I have seen, the amount of ash in Seattle today is negligible compared to the poor air quality.
DeleteThat makes sense. I think it's just that the sentence "This can be disconcerting, but keep in mind that ash isn't really a health problem" comes across as axiomatic rather than a comment on the specific ash conditions we're currently experiencing. In any case, thanks for all the work reporting and keeping us informed. Very much appreciated.
DeleteOK I will edit that sentence to be more clear. Thanks.
DeleteThank you for the editing.
DeleteAsh is also falling in Olympia.
ReplyDeleteI am also curious if when you said “it will blow back over us on Wednesday” suggests MORE smoke just on Wednesday but beginning on Thursday the AQI should be better? for the Puget Sound area? I have family from out of town coming to Silverdale/Bremerton this weekend. I hope we see improvement by then :(
ReplyDeleteYes it could get worse on Wednesday in the Puget Sound area. Thursday will be a transitional day so by this weekend it should be pretty good in Bremerton.
DeleteTo expand on my previous comment. While ash does not have the same long term effects as the smaller particles it is a clear sign that there are indeed smaller particles and the ash breaks down quickly. But really the ash causes severe sinus problems for some people that creates other complications like the aggravation the trigeminal and facial nerves. I have heard this "no health effects from wildfire ash" more and more lately and it is not accurate.
ReplyDeleteCan you tell us about Mt. Rainier? It's very hard to ascertain conditions there from your maps. Planning to camp at White River on Thursday and hike Burroughs Mountain Friday but don't want to do this if it's an air quality risk. Would very much appreciate knowing how to assess this. Thank you so much!
ReplyDeleteWe don't have a particulate monitor on Mt. Rainier. And, it is difficult to forecast the altitude that smoke will impact. You might want to check out the cam that is available so you can monitor visibility: https://www.wsdot.com/traffic/cccam.aspx?cam=1350 Thursday might still have some smoke in that area but we are anticipating it should be good on Friday. You can also see near real time satellite imagery which might help discern the altitude that smoke is impacting : https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=pnw&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
DeleteCan you please comment on the effectiveness of the face masks carrying the N95 label. Are they effective in removing the toxic gas that comes with the smoke particles
ReplyDeleteThe main feature of the smoke is fine particulate matter which is exactly what an N95 is designed and certified to filter out. So, yes they filter out the smoke, but keep in mind that they only work if they fit well on your face. Unfortunately, a typical HVAC system in an office building is not guaranteed to be any good at filtering smoke. If anything, the N95 mask is actually more effective than "being inside in an air conditioned building" unless you know your building has hospital-quality MERV filters or HEPA filters. Good luck sleeping in an N95 mask though.
DeleteN95 masks filter out particles, but not hazardous gases. Smoke contains both gases and particles, but it’s generally the particulate matter that is a greater concern for health. The “95” indicates that N95’s are designed to filter out 95% of airborne particles—but that’s assuming that they fit well, which can only be assured with a fit test. Without a fit test, it is better to assume that you are getting some reduction, but much less than 95%. It’s a good reason to consider them as a helpful tool if you must be outside and it’s really smoky, but they don’t provide complete protection and are not a good long-term solution. See more guidance: www.doh.wa.gov/smokefromfires.
DeleteAny more of a detailed forecast for spokane? Kind of noticed that when western Washington got bad, we didn't get talked about in very much detail after that.
ReplyDeleteI don't want to get anyone's hopes up, because the forecast is uncertain. It looks like Spokane could see some significant clearing due to strong winds from the southwest Thursday and onward. You could easily see Good air quality Friday through Sunday. Be aware though that strong winds also mean potential fire growth. Currently the forecast is showing Monday as a time when conditions could get bad again.
DeleteAlso Bryan, there's a good article in the Spokesman today. Great local FAQs from Dr. Lutz of Spokane Health District and our partners at Spokane Clean Air Agency. http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2018/aug/21/spokanes-air-quality-youve-got-questions-weve-got-/
DeleteThank you
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ReplyDeleteWhat are you’re predictions for the Olympic NP area Wednesday through Friday? Specifically Port Angeles and Ruby Beach? Is smoke worse as you go higher in altitude? Curious because we’d like to see Hurricane Ridge
Hi Jennifer, the Olympic coast will be the first to clear out by Wednesday. PA might hang on to some smoke until Thursday. Friday should be good all around
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