Wildfire smoke forecast through 2 September

The weekend windstorm, dubbed by some as the worst summer windstorm in state history, has helped dramatically clean out the air statewide. Here's the progression of air quality conditions since Friday:

Friday 28 August

Saturday 29 August

Sunday 30 August

With several weather systems expected to pass through the state this week, air quality is expected to remain mostly Good during the daytime, with nights degrading to Moderate or USG in places like the Lewis-Clark valley. Parts of Yakima county might see a little smoke from the Cougar Creek fire, but Goldendale is likely to remain upwind of this fire.

Western Washington is expected to remain Good through the week.

Air Quality Forecast - Chelan Lake & Methow Valley Fires - Monday, August 31, 2015

Air Quality Forecast - Chelan Lake & Methow Valley Fires       Monday, August 31, 2015

Prepared by:   Andrea Holland (andreahollandsears@gmail.com) & Carolyn Kelly (ckelly8384@gmail.com)             

Note that our forecast format has changed.  We now show air quality conditions for the previous day along with forecasts for today and tomorrow. Monday: Areas east of the fires may see occasional wisps of smoke, which will not linger due to breezy conditions. Rain will improve air quality in affected areas. Tuesday: Areas east and northeast may see light smoke drift, which will not linger due to breezy conditions and rain.
Site	Air Quality			Comments
	August 30 Yesterday (Measured)	August 31 TODAY	September 1 Tuesday
Chelan	Good	Good	Good
Manson	Good	Good	Good
Winthrop	Good	Good	Good
Twisp	Good	Good	Good	Light concentrations of smoke may drift into this area in mid to late afternoon but not linger.
Brewster	Good	Good	Good
Leavenworth	Good	Good	Good
Wenatchee	Good	Good	Good
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  The air quality outlook is based on data from automated instruments that have not been subjected to a quality assurance review. AQI’s estimated for sites with air monitors.

Webcam looking up Lake Chelan  http://www.fsvisimages.com/fstemplate.aspx?site=okwe3_fire1

For information on what each Air Quality Index color code means, click on the “Smoke and Health” tab.

Air Quality Summary Report - NE Washington Area Command Fires Monday, August 31, 2015

Download the PDF here

Air Quality Summary Report - NE Washington Area Command Fires - Sunday, August 30, 2015

Download the PDF here

Air Quality Forecast - Chelan Lake & Methow Valley Fires - Sunday, August 30, 2015

Air Quality Forecast - Chelan Lake & Methow Valley Fires       Sunday, August 30, 2015

Prepared by:   Andrea Holland (andreahollandsears@gmail.com) & Carolyn Kelly (ckelly8384@gmail.com)

Note that our forecast format has changed.  We now show air quality conditions for the previous day along with forecasts for today and tomorrow. Sunday: Areas likely to see smoky conditions will be those east of the fires. Rain will improve air quality in those affected areas. Monday: Areas east and northeast may see smoke impacts. Breezy winds and rain will lessen the effects.
Site	Air Quality			Comments
	August 29 Yesterday	August 30 TODAY	August 31 Monday
Chelan	Good	Good	Good
Manson	Good	Good	Good
Winthrop	Good	Good	Moderate
Twisp	Good	Good	Moderate
Brewster	Good	Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups	Moderate	Smoke may drift into this area early Sunday afternoon lingering into the evening. Any rainfall will improve air quality.
Leavenworth	Good	Good	Good
Wenatchee	Good	Good	Good
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  The air quality outlook is based on data from automated instruments that have not been subjected to a quality assurance review. AQI’s estimated for sites with air monitors.

Webcam looking up Lake Chelan  http://www.fsvisimages.com/fstemplate.aspx?site=okwe3_fire1

For information on what each Air Quality Index color code means, click on the “Smoke and Health” tab.

August 29, 2015 - Evening update: fire, rain, wind, and smoke

We had a little bit of everything today...Winds kicked up as expected, and frontal winds at noon were especially impressive, with gusts consistently in the 20-30 MPH range.  Here are the data from Kettle Falls:

[ERRATA--posted a map here from MesoWest, which mistakely showed temperatures instead of wind speeds]

This led to some blowing smoke, and increased fire activity, especially on the Carpenter Road fire (at least a couple thousand more acres likely burned). Now, we'll likely have some smoke settling into the area, especially the Chewelah Valley/Colville area, but also in some other place with nearby fire activity:

Rain on the ridges NW of the Chewelah valley appears to have prevented smoke from going into the Pend Oreille Valley:

August 29, 2015 - Noon update: Wind-blown smoke from the Carpenter Road fire.

Looks like the Carpenter Road fire is becoming active.  Expect gusty winds and windblown smoke and dust until the wind dies down this evening, then likely some residual and potential heavy smoke in the area through morning.

Blowing smoke on hwy 395 looking South toward the Carpenter Road fire as today's winds kick up. Activity on the fire will likely increase today, and smoke from that activity may result in heavy smoke in the Chewelah/Colville area tonight.

Smoke could be heavy in locations NE of the Carpenter Road fire today.

Air Quality Summary Report - NE Washington Area Command Fires Saturday, August 29, 2015

Download the PDF version here

Air Quality Forecast - Chelan Lake & Methow Valley Fires - Saturday, August 29, 2015

Air Quality Forecast - Chelan Lake & Methow Valley Fires       Saturday, August 29, 2015

Prepared by:   Andrea Holland (andreahollandsears@gmail.com) & Carolyn Kelly (ckelly8384@gmail.com)             

Note that our forecast format has changed.  Starting today we will be showing air quality conditions for the previous day along with forecasts for today and tomorrow. Saturday: With the passage of a powerful cold front today, winds will move smoke away from communities in the vicinity of the Wolverine, First Creek, and Chelan Complex fires.  Some smoke may drift in but will be transient and not remain. This may be a great time to air out the house. Sunday:  Following Saturday’s storm passage Chelan, Manson, and Brewster will see smoke settling into these areas beginning mid-afternoon.  Due to their proximities to the fires, Manson and Brewster may see heavier concentrations with Brewster approaching levels unhealthy for sensitive groups. This will be short lived as the smoke is expected to generally clear overnight in each of these areas.
Site	Air Quality			Comments
	August 28 Yesterday	August 29 TODAY	August 30 Sunday
Chelan	Good	Good	Moderate
Manson	Good	Good	Moderate
Winthrop	Moderate	Good	Good
Twisp	Moderate	Good	Good	Today may see occasional occurrence of smoke drift mid-afternoon and into the evening.
Brewster	Good	Good	Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Leavenworth	Good	Good	Good
Wenatchee	Good	Good	Good
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  The air quality outlook is based on data from automated instruments that have not been subjected to a quality assurance review. AQI’s estimated for sites with air monitors.

Webcam looking up Lake Chelan  http://www.fsvisimages.com/fstemplate.aspx?site=okwe3_fire1

For information on what each Air Quality Index color code means, click on the “Smoke and Health” tab.

8/28/2015 Have you seen some of the work of the 4 ARA's currently working in Washington?

What’s an Air Resource Advisor? 

There’s a new kind of expert available to incident management teams and agency administrators. Air Resource Advisors (ARA’s) are trained specialists who can be dispatched to an incident to assist with understanding and predicting smoke impacts on the public and fire personnel. They analyze, summarize, and communicate these impacts to incident teams, air quality regulators, and the public.

Smoke from wildfires can have an enormous impact on the public and fire personnel, affecting health, interfering with transportation safety, and upsetting tourism and local economies. ARA’s are technical specialists with expertise in air quality science including: air quality monitoring, smoke modeling, pollutant health thresholds, and communicating about smoke risks and mitigation.  During wildfire incidents when smoke is a concern, their objective is to provide timely smoke impact and forecast information and messages based on best-available science. They work with multiple agencies to address public health concerns, smoke risk to transportation safety, and fire personnel exposure.

What all does an ARA do?

·        Provide, install, and operate air quality monitors in communities, base and spike camps as needed.

·   Summarize information about current air quality conditions compared to national health thresholds and communicate findings with partner agencies and the public.

·   Run smoke models and provide forecasts of future air quality impacts.

·  Work with safety officers to address incident personnel impacts from smoke.

·  Provide information on how to reduce and mitigate smoke exposure.

·  Support IMTs in public meetings and in media such as Inciweb, AirNow and smoke blogs. 

·   Engage and coordinate with other agencies such as public health, air regulators, and emergency management as needed for appropriate actions to respond to smoke.

8/28/2015 Air Quality and Smoke Report for SE Washington

An Air Resource Adviser assigned to the fires near Baker City, OR is including parts of Washington (Walla Walla and Clarkston) in his daily air quality/smoke forecasts.  See his report for today at this link: http://oregonsmoke.blogspot.com/2015/08/82815-air-quality-report-for-ne-oregon.html

Wildfire smoke forecast through Monday 31 August

Smoke forecasts for north central and northeast Washington are covered in the two posts below. This post covers the remaining areas of the state.

Some clearing occurred Thursday evening. Here is the satellite picture taken last afternoon.

Smoke returned overnight. Most areas however are showing Moderate or USG air now. Goldendale temporary monitor reporting Good air overnight. Southwest winds will slowly pick up across the Columbia Basin and air quality will improve at most sites today. Expecting mostly Good air later today, although the Lewis- Clark valley might be harder to clear out and might stay Moderate.

Winds briefly turn easterly overnight as low pressure approaches from the coast. Some models emphasize this more than others. If this does materialize, it will drag some Idahoan smoke over far eastern Washington and also result in some smoke making a run for the western foothills of the Cascades, if not into Western Washington overnight. However any smoke on the west side will be short lived, as strong southwest winds kick up on Saturday morning, bring rain to western WA and the Cascades. 

Saturday should see mostly Good air quality in these areas. However please pay attention to the Red Flag warnings and Blowing Dust advisories in eastern Washington.

Winds will remain strong enough to maintain mostly Good air on Saturday night into Sunday. It is not impossible for some Oregon wildfire smoke to make its way over parts of the Columbia Basin on Sunday, but it is unlikely to degrade air quality very much.

Expect mostly Good air on Sunday, though Moderate air cannot be ruled out. Better air in the afternoon, slightly worse overnight.

Nevertheless the Air Quality Alert remains in effect because smoke clearing will not be sustained through the entire weekend.